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Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference

Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference PDF Author: Pavel V. Shevchenko
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642159230
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 311

Book Description
The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone explosive changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in the operational environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products, and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks which are very different from market and credit risks. In response, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has developed a new regulatory framework for capital measurement and standards for the banking sector. This has formally defined operational risk and introduced corresponding capital requirements. Many banks are undertaking quantitative modelling of operational risk using the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) based on statistical quantification of the frequency and severity of operational risk losses. There are a number of unresolved methodological challenges in the LDA implementation. Overall, the area of quantitative operational risk is very new and different methods are under hot debate. This book is devoted to quantitative issues in LDA. In particular, the use of Bayesian inference is the main focus. Though it is very new in this area, the Bayesian approach is well suited for modelling operational risk, as it allows for a consistent and convenient statistical framework for quantifying the uncertainties involved. It also allows for the combination of expert opinion with historical internal and external data in estimation procedures. These are critical, especially for low-frequency/high-impact operational risks. This book is aimed at practitioners in risk management, academic researchers in financial mathematics, banking industry regulators and advanced graduate students in the area. It is a must-read for anyone who works, teaches or does research in the area of financial risk.

Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference

Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference PDF Author: Pavel V. Shevchenko
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642159230
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 311

Book Description
The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone explosive changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in the operational environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products, and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks which are very different from market and credit risks. In response, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has developed a new regulatory framework for capital measurement and standards for the banking sector. This has formally defined operational risk and introduced corresponding capital requirements. Many banks are undertaking quantitative modelling of operational risk using the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) based on statistical quantification of the frequency and severity of operational risk losses. There are a number of unresolved methodological challenges in the LDA implementation. Overall, the area of quantitative operational risk is very new and different methods are under hot debate. This book is devoted to quantitative issues in LDA. In particular, the use of Bayesian inference is the main focus. Though it is very new in this area, the Bayesian approach is well suited for modelling operational risk, as it allows for a consistent and convenient statistical framework for quantifying the uncertainties involved. It also allows for the combination of expert opinion with historical internal and external data in estimation procedures. These are critical, especially for low-frequency/high-impact operational risks. This book is aimed at practitioners in risk management, academic researchers in financial mathematics, banking industry regulators and advanced graduate students in the area. It is a must-read for anyone who works, teaches or does research in the area of financial risk.

Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics

Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics PDF Author: Marcelo G. Cruz
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118573021
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 928

Book Description
A one-stop guide for the theories, applications, and statistical methodologies essential to operational risk Providing a complete overview of operational risk modeling and relevant insurance analytics, Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk offers a systematic approach that covers the wide range of topics in this area. Written by a team of leading experts in the field, the handbook presents detailed coverage of the theories, applications, and models inherent in any discussion of the fundamentals of operational risk, with a primary focus on Basel II/III regulation, modeling dependence, estimation of risk models, and modeling the data elements. Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk begins with coverage on the four data elements used in operational risk framework as well as processing risk taxonomy. The book then goes further in-depth into the key topics in operational risk measurement and insurance, for example diverse methods to estimate frequency and severity models. Finally, the book ends with sections on specific topics, such as scenario analysis; multifactor modeling; and dependence modeling. A unique companion with Advances in Heavy Tailed Risk Modeling: A Handbook of Operational Risk, the handbook also features: Discussions on internal loss data and key risk indicators, which are both fundamental for developing a risk-sensitive framework Guidelines for how operational risk can be inserted into a firm’s strategic decisions A model for stress tests of operational risk under the United States Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) program A valuable reference for financial engineers, quantitative analysts, risk managers, and large-scale consultancy groups advising banks on their internal systems, the handbook is also useful for academics teaching postgraduate courses on the methodology of operational risk.

Measuring and Managing Operational Risk

Measuring and Managing Operational Risk PDF Author: Paola Leone
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319694103
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 225

Book Description
This book covers Operational Risk Management (ORM), in the current context, and its new role in the risk management field. The concept of operational risk is subject to a wide discussion also in the field of ORM’s literature, which has increased throughout the years. By analyzing different methodologies that try to integrate qualitative and quantitative data or different measurement approaches, the authors explore the methodological framework, the assumptions, statistical tool, and the main results of an operational risk model projected by intermediaries. A guide for academics and students, the book also discusses the avenue of mitigation acts, suggested by the main results of the methodologies applied. The book will appeal to students, academics, and financial supervisory and regulatory authorities.

Measuring Operational and Reputational Risk

Measuring Operational and Reputational Risk PDF Author: Aldo Soprano
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470742119
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 226

Book Description
How to apply operational risk theory to real-life banking data Modelling Operational and Reputational Risks shows practitioners the best models to use in a given situation, according to the type of risk an organization is facing. Based on extensive applied research on operational risk models using real bank datasets, it offers a wide range of various testing models and fitting techniques for financial practitioners. With this book, professionals will have a foundation for measuring and predicting these important intangibles. Aldo Soprano (Madrid, Spain) is Group Head of operational risk management at UniCredit Group.

Operational Risk Toward Basel III

Operational Risk Toward Basel III PDF Author: Greg N. Gregoriou
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470451890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 453

Book Description
This book consists of chapters by contributors (well-known professors, practitioners, and consultants from large and well respected money management firms within this area) offering the latest research in the OpRisk area. The chapters highlight how operational risk helps firms survive and prosper by givingreaders the latest, cutting-edge techniques in OpRisk management. Topics discussed include: Basel Accord II, getting ready for the New Basel III, Extreme Value Theory, the new capital requirements and regulations in the banking sector in relation to financial reporting (including developing concepts such as OpRisk Insurance which wasn't a part of the Basel II framework). The book further discussed quantitative and qualitative aspects of OpRisk, as well as fraud and applications to the fund industry.

Operational Risk Assessment

Operational Risk Assessment PDF Author: Brendon Young
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470745991
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 456

Book Description
Operational risk assessment The Commercial Imperative of a More Forensic and Transparent Approach Brendon Young and Rodney Coleman “Brendon Young and Rodney Coleman's book is extremely timely. There has never been a greater need for the financial industry to reassess the way it looks at risk. [...] They are right to draw attention to the current widespread practices of risk management, which [...] have allowed risk to become underpriced across the entire industry.” Rt Hon John McFall MP, Chairman, House of Commons Treasury Committee Failure of the financial services sector to properly understand risk was clearly demonstrated by the recent 'credit crunch'. In its 2008 Global Stability Report, the IMF sharply criticised banks and other financial institutions for the failure of risk management systems, resulting in excessive risk-taking. Financial sector supervision and regulation was also criticised for lagging behind shifts in business models and rapid innovation. This book provides investors with a sound understanding of the approaches used to assess the standing of firms and determine their true potential (identifying probable losers and potential longer-term winners). It advocates a 'more forensic' approach towards operational risk management and promotes transparency, which is seen as a facilitator of competition and efficiency as well as being a barrier to fraud, corruption and financial crime. Risk assessment is an integral part of informed decision making, influencing strategic positioning and direction. It is fundamental to a company’s performance and a key differentiator between competing management teams. Increasing complexity is resulting in the need for more dynamic, responsive approaches to the assessment and management of risk. Not all risks can be quantified; however, it remains incumbent upon management to determine the impact of possible risk-events on financial statements and to indicate the level of variation in projected figures. To begin, the book looks at traditional methods of risk assessment and shows how these have developed into the approaches currently being used. It then goes on to consider the more advanced forensic techniques being developed, which will undoubtedly increase understanding. The authors identify 'best practice' and address issues such as the importance of corporate governance, culture and ethics. Insurance as a mitigant for operational risk is also considered. Quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methodologies covered include: Loss-data analysis; extreme value theory; causal analysis including Bayesian Belief Networks; control risk self-assessment and key indicators; scenario analysis; and dynamic financial analysis. Views of industry insiders, from organisations such as Standard & Poors, Fitch, Hermes, USS, UN-PRI, Deutsche Bank, and Alchemy Partners, are presented together with those from experts at the FSA, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), and the Financial Reporting Council. In addition to investors, this book will be of interest to actuaries, rating agencies, regulators and legislators, as well as to the directors and risk managers of financial institutions in both the private and public sectors. Students requiring a comprehensive knowledge of operational risk management will also find the book of considerable value.

Loss Distributions

Loss Distributions PDF Author: Robert V. Hogg
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470317302
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 254

Book Description
Devoted to the problem of fitting parametric probability distributions to data, this treatment uniquely unifies loss modeling in one book. Data sets used are related to the insurance industry, but can be applied to other distributions. Emphasis is on the distribution of single losses related to claims made against various types of insurance policies. Includes five sets of insurance data as examples.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks PDF Author: Norman Fenton
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351978977
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 661

Book Description
Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.

Multivariate Estimation for Operational Risk with Judicious Use of Extreme Value Theory

Multivariate Estimation for Operational Risk with Judicious Use of Extreme Value Theory PDF Author: Mahmoud El-Gamal
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Extreme value theory
Languages : en
Pages : 48

Book Description


Risk Management and Financial Institutions, + Web Site

Risk Management and Financial Institutions, + Web Site PDF Author: John Hull
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118269039
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 674

Book Description
This text takes risk management theory and explains it in a 'this is how you do it' manner for practical application in today's financial world.