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Author: Bradyn M. Breon-Drish Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 75
Book Description
I study a general class of noisy rational expectations models that nests the standard Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) and Hellwig (1980) models, but relaxes the usual assumption of joint normality of asset payoffs and supply, and allows for more general signal structures. I provide a constructive proof of existence of equilibrium, characterize the price function, and provide sufficient conditions for uniqueness within the class of equilibria with continuous price functions, which are met by both the Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) model and the Hellwig (1980) model with a continuum of investors. My solution approach does not rely on the typical "conjecture and verify" method, and I exhibit a number of non-normal examples in which asset prices can be characterized explicitly and in closed form. The results presented here open up a broad class of models for applied work. To illustrate the usefulness of generalizing the standard model, I show that in settings with non-normally distributed payoffs, shocks to fundamentals may be amplified purely due to learning effects, price drifts can arise naturally, and the disagreement-return relation depends in a novel way on return skewness.
Author: Bradyn M. Breon-Drish Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 75
Book Description
I study a general class of noisy rational expectations models that nests the standard Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) and Hellwig (1980) models, but relaxes the usual assumption of joint normality of asset payoffs and supply, and allows for more general signal structures. I provide a constructive proof of existence of equilibrium, characterize the price function, and provide sufficient conditions for uniqueness within the class of equilibria with continuous price functions, which are met by both the Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) model and the Hellwig (1980) model with a continuum of investors. My solution approach does not rely on the typical "conjecture and verify" method, and I exhibit a number of non-normal examples in which asset prices can be characterized explicitly and in closed form. The results presented here open up a broad class of models for applied work. To illustrate the usefulness of generalizing the standard model, I show that in settings with non-normally distributed payoffs, shocks to fundamentals may be amplified purely due to learning effects, price drifts can arise naturally, and the disagreement-return relation depends in a novel way on return skewness.
Author: Roger Guesnerie Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 9780262262903 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 498
Book Description
A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test. The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure. Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.
Author: Bennett T. McCallum Publisher: ISBN: Category : Econometrics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
Many macroeconomic models involving rational expect at ions give rise to an infinity of solution paths, even when the models are linear in all variables. Some writers have suggested that this non-uniqueness constitutes a serious weakness for the rational expectations hypothesis. One purpose of the present paper is to argue that the non-uniqueness in question is not properly attributable to the rationality hypothesis but, instead, is a general feature of dynamic models involving expectations. It is also argued that there typically exists, in a very wide class of linear rational expectations models, a single solution that excludes "bubble" or "bootstrap" effects ones that occur only because they are arbitrarily expected to occur. A systematic procedure for obtaining solutions free from such effects is introduced and discussed. In addition, this procedure is used to interpret and reconsider several prominent examples with solution multiplicities, including ones developed by Fischer Black and John B. Taylor. [Resumen de autor]
Author: Robert S. Uh Publisher: Nova Publishers ISBN: 9781594546228 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 294
Book Description
Book & Computer Disk. This book examines international aspects of financial institutions as well as their economic performance and development. Emphasis is placed on transition economics as well as Developing Countries. Issues within the scope of this new book include: financial reporting, efficiency of financial institutions, Middle-East financial institutions, money market liquidity, economic performance, risk capital allocation, financial market soundness, instability, devaluations, capital flight and related issues, including governance.
Author: Bennett T. McCallum Publisher: ISBN: Category : Rational expectations (Economic theory) Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
Abstract: Consider a rational expectations (RE) model that includes a relationship between variables xt and zt+1. To be considered structural and potentially useful as a guide to actual behavior, this model must specify whether xt is influenced by the expectation at t of zt+1 or, alternatively, that zt+1 is directly influenced (via some inertial mechanism) by xt (i.e., that zt is influenced by xt-1). These are quite different phenomena. Here it is shown that, for a very broad class of multivariate linear RE models, distinct causal specifications involving both expectational and inertial influences will be uniquely associated with distinct solutionsâ?"which will result operationally from different specifications concerning which of the model's variables are predetermined. It follows that for a given structure, and with a natural continuity assumption, there is only one RE solution that is fully consistent with the model's specification. Furthermore, this solution does not involve â??sunspotâ?? phenomena
Author: Bradyn M. Breon-Drish
Author: Bradyn M. Breon-Drish
Author: Charles H. Whiteman
Author: Roger Guesnerie
Author: Beth ALLEN
Author: Bennett T. McCallum
Author: Beth Allen
Author: Robert S. Uh
Author: Beth Elaine Allen
Author: Bennett T. McCallum
Author: Pennsylvania