Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices PDF Download

Author: Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151357227X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41

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Book Description
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475572360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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Book Description
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Author: Tarak Nath Sahu
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137492015
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

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Book Description
The liberalization and globalization of the Indian economy has made India more vulnerable to macro issues. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in India. The research findings and policy implications discussed here may also be relevant for other emerging economies.

Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333486
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Author: Apostolos Serletis
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated
ISBN: 9789814390675
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 142

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Book Description
The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.

Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513590766
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54

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Book Description
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

Author: Robert A. Amano
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780662237785
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 28

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Book Description

Author: Donald M. Nonini
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429536720
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 357

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Book Description
Contemporary politics, this book contends, depend upon the turbulent struggles and strategies around scale. Confl icts over scale can be seen as opaque class struggles. Political projects, whether from the ground up or representing corporate or state interests, continually contest the scale at which authority is vested. This volume looks at the way global corporations redefi ne the scale of power and how working- class and other movements build alliances and cross scales to develop political blocs. What injustices are perpetrated or, more hopefully, redressed in this process? The book, consisting of contributions from anthropologists, geographers, and cultural studies scholars, explores theoretical issues around contested temporal and spatial scales, and around variations in scale from the body to the global. Part I focuses on bodies in motion, entangled in battles over new boundaries and political coalitions, and the ways in which migrants and refugees are disrupted by intersecting time scales. Part II on the nation- state addresses the shifting responsibilities assigned by law at diff erent historical moments and the impact of global energy trade on national austerity policies. Part III, on rescaling sovereignty, discusses the misleading media discourse on “Brexit” and reconstructs the class bases of the move to the Right in Eastern Europe that threaten the EU. Part IV on the histories of changing scales of movements revisits historical debates on uneven and combined development, and sets out the transnational labor movements of the eighteenthand nineteenth- century Atlantic, which prefi gure contemporary struggles of labor in a world which is still one of uneven and combined capitalist development. Finally, Part V considers ways in which some social movements are constrained by scale while others reshape parties and traverse nations in their eff orts to build class alliances and political blocs.

Author: Asian Development Bank
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
ISBN: 9292547437
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 134

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Book Description
This publication provides a comprehensive assessment of recent global oil price trends, the exposure of Pacific developing member countries to oil price increases and its implications for social and economic development in the region. It also offers a number of policy options for managing risks associated with heavy dependence on oil imports and proposes a path for diversifying the energy mix in Pacific developing member countries.