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Author: Mazen Mardini Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 88
Book Description
This research investigates the existence long-run relationships between oil prices and stock market indices in five GCC country implementing panel co-integration techniques and Seemingly Unrelated regression (SUR) methods, using two different (weekly and monthly) datasets covering respectively the periods from 3 June 2005 to 18 November 2011 and from August 2004 to October 2011. The investigation shows that there is evidence for Co-integration of oil prices and stock markets in our two (weekly and monthly) datasets. while the SUR results indicate on a weekly basis, we found that oil price increases have a positive impact on stock prices of Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, and have a negative impact on stock prices of Bahrain and UAE whereas, on monthly basis we found that oil price increases have a positive impact on stock prices of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, and have a negative impact on stock prices of UAE.
Author: Mazen Mardini Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 88
Book Description
This research investigates the existence long-run relationships between oil prices and stock market indices in five GCC country implementing panel co-integration techniques and Seemingly Unrelated regression (SUR) methods, using two different (weekly and monthly) datasets covering respectively the periods from 3 June 2005 to 18 November 2011 and from August 2004 to October 2011. The investigation shows that there is evidence for Co-integration of oil prices and stock markets in our two (weekly and monthly) datasets. while the SUR results indicate on a weekly basis, we found that oil price increases have a positive impact on stock prices of Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, and have a negative impact on stock prices of Bahrain and UAE whereas, on monthly basis we found that oil price increases have a positive impact on stock prices of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, and have a negative impact on stock prices of UAE.
Author: Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484355660 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.
Author: Wafaa Sbeiti Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
This paper investigates the relationship between stock prices and main macroeconomic variables (i.e. oil prices, short-term interest rate and domestic credit) that are believed to affect stock prices in the context of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. For this purpose, this paper employed recent time series techniques of cointegration and Granger causality tests. The multivariate cointegration tests identified that oil prices, interest rates and domestic credit have long-term equilibrium effects on stock market prices in four GCC countries. In addition, the Granger causality test highlighted that the causality is running from oil prices to the stock price index in the case of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman. Also, the causal flow from the domestic credit to the index has been found in the case of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia; while the interest rate has causal effect on the stock price index in the case of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman. Further assessment of the relationship between these variables, based on generalised variance decomposition and generalised impulse response functions, reveals the importance of oil prices in explaining a significant part of the forecast error variance of the index in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman. Most of the variations in the stock prices can be captured by innovations in the three selected variables. Therefore, the causal relationship that macroeconomic variables granger caused stock prices are quantitatively supported by innovation analysis.
Author: Suzanna ElMassah Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 22
Book Description
The recent plunge in the price of oil affected many countries, especially major oil producers and exporters, such as the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC), which accounts for half of the global oil reserves. This paper examines the impact of oil price changes on GCC stock markets, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates over a 10-year period, 2005- 2015. We examine the direction of influence and influence absorption through Granger causality and impulse response function. The results are important for portfolio management at the international level, and provide insights for government and regulatory authorities in times of oil price change. Additionally, the evidence suggests the need for more economic diversification at the country level in the GCC region to mitigate high volatility in the event of oil shocks.
Author: Ibrahim Onour Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing ISBN: 9783845418926 Category : Languages : en Pages : 144
Book Description
A number of events that have been occurring in the past few years highlight the importance of capital markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. As GCC capital markets became increasingly open to foreign investors in the past few years, they become more vulnerable to shocks in international markets, and thus more volatile. Also, the increasing cointegration among GCC markets increased the spillover effect of regional shocks, which in turn contributed towards increasing volatility in these markets. It is also to be noted that due to lack of sound regulatory policy in some of these markets, hyping, dumping and rumours become the main driving forces behind the frequent changes in stock prices. In addition, as GCC economies depend largely on crude oil revenue, volatility in oil prices in the past few years fuelled extreme stock price changes. The book combines research papers related to these type of issues.
Author: Fathi M. Mohalhal Publisher: ISBN: Category : Accounting and price fluctuations Languages : en Pages : 174
Book Description
This study examines to what extent how oil movements differently affect equity returns in general and sectoral levels of the GCC countries stock markets. Modeling the equity returns volatility requires using GARCH-type models. These models help to explore the pronounced differences of the conditional variance structures across sectors and markets. Chapter 1 compares the effects of changes in oil price return and its volatility on equity returns and volatility across sectors. The findings of this chapter show that despite the GCC states dependency on oil revenues, equity market performance at the sectoral level do not exactly associate with oil movements. Our results, in particular, show that the GCC stock markets do not always move hand-in-hand with oil market movements. In chapter 2, we explore the relationship within a specific sector, i.e. Banks sector in Saudi Arabia Stock market. We examine if oil price changes affect Islamic banks differently than conventional ones. The findings show a decrease in degree of co-movement between these two types of banking system and oil market, meaning that they are less integrated. Although the Islamic banks kept a higher degree of co-movement with oil, limitations of Shari'ah restrictions on Islamic banks have little impact on the relationship between oil and those banks. Chapter 3 examines whether the level of corruption influences how oil changes affect the GCC stock markets. The findings of chapter 3 show that dissimilar levels of corruption between GCC countries have inconsiderable differences on the oil return effects on the GCC stock markets. Oil returns affect both low and high level of corruption groups. The oil return innovation affects the equity volatility for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait more than other four GCC countries.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 53
Book Description
GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.
Author: Ahsan Mansur Publisher: Palgrave MacMillan ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 242
Book Description
"This book provides an analysis of the structural strengths and weaknesses of the Gulf stock markets and the appropriateness of policies implemented. It examines the effect of the 2006 correction on financial stability and economic growth and explains the differences in performance of some regional markets. This research integrates for the first time under a homogenous methodology the systematic analysis of all stock markets in the Gulf, identifies common trends and causes for differential behaviour and constitutes a key contribution toward the understanding of the functioning of the Gulf stock exchanges by domestic and foreign investors."--BOOK JACKET.
Author: Mazen Mardini
Author: Mazen Mardini
Author: Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh
Author: Wafaa Sbeiti
Author: Chao Wei
Author: Mohamed El Hedi Arouri
Author: Suzanna ElMassah
Author: Ibrahim Onour
Author: Fathi M. Mohalhal
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Author: Ahsan Mansur