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Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The U.S. Department of Energy's Fuel Cycle Technologies (FCT) Program is preparing to perform an evaluation of the full range of possible Nuclear Energy Systems (NES) in 2013. These include all practical combinations of fuels and transmuters (reactors and sub-critical systems) in single and multi-tier combinations of burners and breeders with no, partial, and full recycle. As part of this evaluation, Levelized Cost of Electricity at Equilibrium (LCAE) ranges for each representative system will be calculated. To facilitate the cost analyses, the 2009 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report is being amended to provide up-to-date cost data for each step in the fuel cycle, and a new analysis tool, NE-COST, has been developed. This paper explains the innovative "Island" approach used by NE-COST to streamline and simplify the economic analysis effort and provides examples of LCAE costs generated. The Island approach treats each transmuter (or target burner) and the associated fuel cycle facilities as a separate analysis module, allowing reuse of modules that appear frequently in the NES options list. For example, a number of options to be screened will include a once-through uranium oxide (UOX) fueled light water reactor (LWR). The UOX LWR may be standalone, or may be the first stage in a multi-stage system. Using the Island approach, the UOX LWR only needs to be modeled once and the module can then be reused on subsequent fuel cycles. NE-COST models the unit operations and life cycle costs associated with each step of the fuel cycle on each island. This includes three front-end options for supplying feedstock to fuel fabrication (mining/enrichment, reprocessing of used fuel from another island, and/or reprocessing of this island's used fuel), along with the transmuter and back-end storage/disposal. Results of each island are combined based on the fractional energy generated by each islands in an equilibrium system. The cost analyses use the probability distributions of key parameters and employs Monte Carlo sampling to arrive at an island's cost probability density function (PDF). When comparing two NES to determine delta cost, strongly correlated parameters can be cancelled out so that only the differences in the systems contribute to the relative cost PDFs. For example, one comparative analysis presented in the paper is a single stage LWR-UOX system versus a two-stage LWR-UOX to LWR-MOX system. In this case, the first stage of both systems is the same (but with different fractional energy generation), while the second stage of the UOX to MOX system uses the same type transmuter but the fuel type and feedstock sources are different. In this case, the cost difference between systems is driven by only the fuel cycle differences of the MOX stage.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The U.S. Department of Energy's Fuel Cycle Technologies (FCT) Program is preparing to perform an evaluation of the full range of possible Nuclear Energy Systems (NES) in 2013. These include all practical combinations of fuels and transmuters (reactors and sub-critical systems) in single and multi-tier combinations of burners and breeders with no, partial, and full recycle. As part of this evaluation, Levelized Cost of Electricity at Equilibrium (LCAE) ranges for each representative system will be calculated. To facilitate the cost analyses, the 2009 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report is being amended to provide up-to-date cost data for each step in the fuel cycle, and a new analysis tool, NE-COST, has been developed. This paper explains the innovative "Island" approach used by NE-COST to streamline and simplify the economic analysis effort and provides examples of LCAE costs generated. The Island approach treats each transmuter (or target burner) and the associated fuel cycle facilities as a separate analysis module, allowing reuse of modules that appear frequently in the NES options list. For example, a number of options to be screened will include a once-through uranium oxide (UOX) fueled light water reactor (LWR). The UOX LWR may be standalone, or may be the first stage in a multi-stage system. Using the Island approach, the UOX LWR only needs to be modeled once and the module can then be reused on subsequent fuel cycles. NE-COST models the unit operations and life cycle costs associated with each step of the fuel cycle on each island. This includes three front-end options for supplying feedstock to fuel fabrication (mining/enrichment, reprocessing of used fuel from another island, and/or reprocessing of this island's used fuel), along with the transmuter and back-end storage/disposal. Results of each island are combined based on the fractional energy generated by each islands in an equilibrium system. The cost analyses use the probability distributions of key parameters and employs Monte Carlo sampling to arrive at an island's cost probability density function (PDF). When comparing two NES to determine delta cost, strongly correlated parameters can be cancelled out so that only the differences in the systems contribute to the relative cost PDFs. For example, one comparative analysis presented in the paper is a single stage LWR-UOX system versus a two-stage LWR-UOX to LWR-MOX system. In this case, the first stage of both systems is the same (but with different fractional energy generation), while the second stage of the UOX to MOX system uses the same type transmuter but the fuel type and feedstock sources are different. In this case, the cost difference between systems is driven by only the fuel cycle differences of the MOX stage.
Author: Philip Killman Eash-Gates Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 122
Book Description
The cost of photovoltaic systems has declined more rapidly than other electricity production technologies, while nuclear plant costs have risen. Changing costs have contributed to global energy transitions in the past, and our capacity to decarbonize the electricity sector will depend on the cost of low-carbon electricity production technologies like photovoltaic and nuclear energy. Understanding the mechanisms behind historical cost evolution and potential future improvement can inform the design of energy technologies and the policies that advance them. This thesis investigates historical barriers and future opportunities for cost reduction in solar and nuclear power. By developing innovative mathematical and conceptual models, we address the following questions: (1) How can "plug-and-play" design improve costs in photovoltaic systems? (2) What were the sources of cost escalation and overruns in nuclear power plant construction? We address these questions in chapters 2 and 3. Chapter 2 assesses the potential for plug-and-play designs to reduce non-module costs in photovoltaic systems. This work advances use of the design structure matrix for studying cost change in energy technologies by evaluating design factors across multiple systems. We identify the cost components with significant latent potential for improvement--profit, installation labor, overhead, electrical balance of system, and customer acquisition--and show that plug-and-play designs have advantageous effects on their constituent parts. A conventional small-scale photovoltaic project contains nearly 600 interactions across 30 or more system elements; we show that plug-and-play designs can reduce the number of interactions by two-thirds and elements by half. Several mechanisms are important to the cost change potential of plug-and-play technology: eliminating various project tasks or shifting their responsibility to the consumer removes the associated overhead and profit of installation firms; pre-assembly of system components and standardization of project tasks eliminates installation labor costs; reduction and simplification of BOS electrical components lowers equipment costs; and standardization of system design precludes time-intensive tasks involved in customer acquisition. We compare the advantages of prevailing plug-and-play designs and consider future opportunities for technological innovation and policy advancement. Chapter 3 examines the engineering assumptions underlying many nuclear cost models using historical cost data from the U.S. nuclear industry. We show that expectations for technological improvement may have underestimated factors external to hardware design. By mapping separate cost trajectories for standard plant designs, we find that nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) plants have been more expensive than first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plants, counter to traditional expectations. Indirect costs external to technological design were responsible for most of the cost rise observed between 1976 and 1987. Decomposition of cost changes in the reactor containment building shows that while safety was a significant factor driving cost increases, non-safety factors were comparably influential. Comparing productivity data from recent U.S. plant construction to industry expectations, we find that material deployment rates are up to thirteen times slower than cost estimating guidelines suggest. We discuss which technologies could potentially lower the impact of external, previously cost-increasing factors, with the support of regulatory changes and R&D.
Author: Monica Greer Publisher: Academic Press ISBN: 0080961355 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 360
Book Description
A "quick look up guide," Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations places the relevant formulae and calculations at the reader's finger tips. In this book, theories are explained in a nutshell and then the calculation is presented and solved in an illustrated, step-by-step fashion. A valuable guide for new engineers, economists (or forecasters), regulators, and policy makers who want to further develop their knowledge of best practice calculations techniques or experienced practitioners (and even managers) who desire to acquire more useful tips, this book offers expert advice for using such cost models to determine optimally-sized distribution systems and optimally-structured power supplying entities. In other words, this book provides an Everything-that-you-want-to-know-about-cost-modelling-for-electric-utilities (but were afraid to ask) approach to modelling the cost of supplying electricity. In addition, the author covers the concept of multiproduct and multistage cost functions, which are appropriate in modelling the cost of supplying electricity. The author has done all the heavy number-crunching, and provides the reader with real-world, practical examples of how to properly quantify the costs associated with providing electric service, thus increasing the accuracy of the results and support for the policy initiatives required to ensure the competitiveness of the power suppliers in this new world in which we are living. The principles contained herein could be employed to assist in the determination of the cost-minimizing amount of output (i.e., electricity), which could then be used to determine whether a merger between two entities makes sense (i.e., would increase profitability). Other examples abound: public regulatory commissions also need help in determining whether mergers (or divestitures) are welfare-enhancing or not; ratemaking policies depend on costs and properly determining the costs of supplying electric (or gas, water, and local telephone) service. Policy makers, too, can benefit in terms of optimal market structure; after all, the premise of deregulation of the electric industry was predicated on the idea that generation could be deregulated. Unfortunately, the economies of vertical integration between the generation. A comprehensive guide to the cost issues surrounding the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity Real-world examples that are practical, meaningful, and easy to understand Policy implications and suggestions to aid in the formation of the optimal market structure going forward (thus increasing efficiency of electric power suppliers) The principles contained herein could be employed to assist in the determination of the cost-minimizing amount of output
Author: National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems. Synthesis Panel. Modeling Resource Group Publisher: ISBN: Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 258
Author: Geoffrey Rothwell Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1317511778 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 193
Book Description
This book is a unique introduction to the economic costs of nuclear power. It examines the future of the nuclear power industry and unpacks the complicated relationships between its technical, economic and political variables. It does so by modelling the costs, risks and uncertainties of one of the world’s most opaque industries using micro-econometrics, econometrics, and cost engineering. Economics of Nuclear Power examines the very important costs of externalities (storing of nuclear waste and the impact of a Chernobyl or Fukushima event) and compares those to the externalities of alternative carbon based energies (oil, coal, natural gas). With over 100 tables and figures this book details nuclear power production around the world - present and planned, providing a completely global focus. It also includes an overview of the past 70 years of international nuclear power developments. This book is essential reading for students, scholars and professionals interested in energy economics, nuclear engineering and energy policy.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
A variety of US electric power sector capacity expansion models are used by decision makers and analysts to evaluate competition among generation, transmission, and storage technologies to meeting the demands of the system. CEMs use least-cost optimization to identify optimal portfolios of investments capable of satisfying all specified requirements. While CEMs are a useful tool to inform pathways to meet future needs, projections can differ significantly between tools for apparently similar scenario assumptions. Differences in model structure, scope, and input assumption contribute to this issue. This work compares model response with harmonization between four modeling teams on issues significant to the representation and development of nuclear energy.
Author: U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. Office of Operations Analysis and Forecasting Publisher: ISBN: Category : Nuclear industry Languages : en Pages : 48
Author: W. Häfele Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642819885 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 319
Book Description
In March 1981 the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) published the results of a global energy study looking fifty years into the future: Energy in a Finite World: A Global Systems Analysis (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Ballinger Publishing Co. , 1981)*. Not surprisingly, this book raises almost as many questions as it answers; thus, it defines a broad range of research topics that might be taken up by IIASA or other research institutions around the world. A 25-27 May 1981 workshop at IIASA entitled "A Perspective on Adaptive Nuclear Energy Evolutions: Towards a World of Neutron Abundance" was a beginning on one of these topics; it was organized by Wolf Hafele (Kernforschungsanlage Ji. ilich, Jiilich, Federal Republic of Germany, and IIASA) and Arkadius Archie Harms (McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada). The origin of this workshop was the effort with in the IIASA energy study to explore possible "sustainable" global energy systems that might eventually replace the current "consumptive" system. In investigating the possible contributions nuclear technologies might make to a sustainable energy system, it had become clear that it is not so much particular, distinct technologies within the nuclear family that should be examined as a question of particularly advantageous configurations of mutually complementary technologies. Only when one considers exploiting a whole spectrum of arrangements of fission breeders, fusion reactors, and accelerators does the true potential of nuclear power become apparent.
Author: International Atomic Energy Agency Publisher: ISBN: 9789201094179 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 280
Book Description
Member States have recognized the increasing need to model future nuclear power scenarios in order to develop strategies for sustainable nuclear energy systems. The IAEA model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impacts (MESSAGE) code is a tool that supports energy analysis and planning in Member States. This publication documents the experience gained on modelling and scenario analysis of nuclear energy systems (NES) using the MESSAGE code through various case studies performed by the participating Member States on evaluation and planning for nuclear energy sustainability at the regional or national level. The publication also elaborates on experience gained in modelling of global nuclear energy systems with a focus on specific aspects of collaboration among technology holder and technology user countries and the introduction of innovative nuclear technologies. It presents country case studies covering a variety of nuclear energy systems based on a once-through fuel cycle and a closed fuel cycle for thermal reactors, fast reactors and advanced systems. The feedback from case studies proves the analytical capabilities of the MESSAGE model and highlight the path forward for further advancements in the MESSAGE code and NES modelling.
Author: 
Author: 
Author: Philip Killman Eash-Gates
Author: United States. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy
Author: Monica Greer
Author: National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems. Synthesis Panel. Modeling Resource Group
Author: Geoffrey Rothwell
Author: 
Author: U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. Office of Operations Analysis and Forecasting
Author: W. Häfele
Author: International Atomic Energy Agency