Nonlinear Trending Time Series: Theory And Practice PDF Download

Author: Li Chen
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811293368
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 274

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Book Description
Trends often play a dominant role in many empirical time series data, but do we truly understand these trends? What challenges arise when dealing with complex, nonstationary trending time series? How do we model such trends in fields like economics, finance, and climate change?This book provides an overview of recently developed models for trending time series and introduces new nonlinear, nonparametric, and semiparametric methods. Specifically, it offers practical approaches to address the problem of endogeneity in linear trending regression models where the trend component is either weak or strong. Additionally, it proposes a testing procedure for identifying common trends across multiple time series and includes illustrative examples from economics, finance, and climate change.As a practical toolbox, this book equips analysts with essential methods for investigating trends in their research and applications.

Author: Randal Douc
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1466502347
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 548

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Book Description
This text emphasizes nonlinear models for a course in time series analysis. After introducing stochastic processes, Markov chains, Poisson processes, and ARMA models, the authors cover functional autoregressive, ARCH, threshold AR, and discrete time series models as well as several complementary approaches. They discuss the main limit theorems for Markov chains, useful inequalities, statistical techniques to infer model parameters, and GLMs. Moving on to HMM models, the book examines filtering and smoothing, parametric and nonparametric inference, advanced particle filtering, and numerical methods for inference.

Author: Ruey S. Tsay
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119264065
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 516

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Book Description
A comprehensive resource that draws a balance between theory and applications of nonlinear time series analysis Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers an important guide to both parametric and nonparametric methods, nonlinear state-space models, and Bayesian as well as classical approaches to nonlinear time series analysis. The authors—noted experts in the field—explore the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and review the improvements upon linear time series models. The need for this book is based on the recent developments in nonlinear time series analysis, statistical learning, dynamic systems and advanced computational methods. Parametric and nonparametric methods and nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models provide a much wider range of tools for time series analysis. In addition, advances in computing and data collection have made available large data sets and high-frequency data. These new data make it not only feasible, but also necessary to take into consideration the nonlinearity embedded in most real-world time series. This vital guide: • Offers research developed by leading scholars of time series analysis • Presents R commands making it possible to reproduce all the analyses included in the text • Contains real-world examples throughout the book • Recommends exercises to test understanding of material presented • Includes an instructor solutions manual and companion website Written for students, researchers, and practitioners who are interested in exploring nonlinearity in time series, Nonlinear Time Series Analysis offers a comprehensive text that explores the advantages and limitations of the nonlinear models and methods and demonstrates the improvements upon linear time series models.

Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380

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Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Author: Jiti Gao
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420011219
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 249

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Book Description
Useful in the theoretical and empirical analysis of nonlinear time series data, semiparametric methods have received extensive attention in the economics and statistics communities over the past twenty years. Recent studies show that semiparametric methods and models may be applied to solve dimensionality reduction problems arising from using fully

Author: Holger Kantz
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521529020
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 390

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Book Description
The paradigm of deterministic chaos has influenced thinking in many fields of science. Chaotic systems show rich and surprising mathematical structures. In the applied sciences, deterministic chaos provides a striking explanation for irregular behaviour and anomalies in systems which do not seem to be inherently stochastic. The most direct link between chaos theory and the real world is the analysis of time series from real systems in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Experimental technique and data analysis have seen such dramatic progress that, by now, most fundamental properties of nonlinear dynamical systems have been observed in the laboratory. Great efforts are being made to exploit ideas from chaos theory wherever the data displays more structure than can be captured by traditional methods. Problems of this kind are typical in biology and physiology but also in geophysics, economics, and many other sciences.

Author: Michael Small
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 981448122X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 261

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Book Description
Nonlinear time series methods have developed rapidly over a quarter of a century and have reached an advanced state of maturity during the last decade. Implementations of these methods for experimental data are now widely accepted and fairly routine; however, genuinely useful applications remain rare. This book focuses on the practice of applying these methods to solve real problems.To illustrate the usefulness of these methods, a wide variety of physical and physiological systems are considered. The technical tools utilized in this book fall into three distinct, but interconnected areas: quantitative measures of nonlinear dynamics, Monte-Carlo statistical hypothesis testing, and nonlinear modeling. Ten highly detailed applications serve as case studies of fruitful applications and illustrate the mathematical techniques described in the text.

Author: Maria Cristina Mariani
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119674689
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 404

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Book Description
DATA SCIENCE IN THEORY AND PRACTICE EXPLORE THE FOUNDATIONS OF DATA SCIENCE WITH THIS INSIGHTFUL NEW RESOURCE Data Science in Theory and Practice delivers a comprehensive treatment of the mathematical and statistical models useful for analyzing data sets arising in various disciplines, like banking, finance, health care, bioinformatics, security, education, and social services. Written in five parts, the book examines some of the most commonly used and fundamental mathematical and statistical concepts that form the basis of data science. The authors go on to analyze various data transformation techniques useful for extracting information from raw data, long memory behavior, and predictive modeling. The book offers readers a multitude of topics all relevant to the analysis of complex data sets. Along with a robust exploration of the theory underpinning data science, it contains numerous applications to specific and practical problems. The book also provides examples of code algorithms in R and Python and provides pseudo-algorithms to port the code to any other language. Ideal for students and practitioners without a strong background in data science, readers will also learn from topics like: Analyses of foundational theoretical subjects, including the history of data science, matrix algebra and random vectors, and multivariate analysis A comprehensive examination of time series forecasting, including the different components of time series and transformations to achieve stationarity Introductions to both the R and Python programming languages, including basic data types and sample manipulations for both languages An exploration of algorithms, including how to write one and how to perform an asymptotic analysis A comprehensive discussion of several techniques for analyzing and predicting complex data sets Perfect for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in Data Science, Business Analytics, and Statistics programs, Data Science in Theory and Practice will also earn a place in the libraries of practicing data scientists, data and business analysts, and statisticians in the private sector, government, and academia.

Author: Timo Teräsvirta
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 9780199587148
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 592

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Book Description
This book contains an extensive up-to-date overview of nonlinear time series models and their application to modelling economic relationships. It considers nonlinear models in stationary and nonstationary frameworks, and both parametric and nonparametric models are discussed. The book contains examples of nonlinear models in economic theory and presents the most common nonlinear time series models. Importantly, it shows the reader how to apply these models in practice. For thispurpose, the building of various nonlinear models with its three stages of model building: specification, estimation and evaluation, is discussed in detail and is illustrated by several examples involving both economic and non-economic data. Since estimation of nonlinear time series models is carried outusing numerical algorithms, the book contains a chapter on estimating parametric nonlinear models and another on estimating nonparametric ones.Forecasting is a major reason for building time series models, linear or nonlinear. The book contains a discussion on forecasting with nonlinear models, both parametric and nonparametric, and considers numerical techniques necessary for computing multi-period forecasts from them. The main focus of the book is on models of the conditional mean, but models of the conditional variance, mainly those of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, receive attention as well. A separate chapter isdevoted to state space models. As a whole, the book is an indispensable tool for researchers interested in nonlinear time series and is also suitable for teaching courses in econometrics and time series analysis.

Author: Ray G. Huffaker
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198782934
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 371

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Book Description
Nonlinear Time Series Analysis with R provides a practical guide to emerging empirical techniques allowing practitioners to diagnose whether highly fluctuating and random appearing data are most likely driven by random or deterministic dynamic forces. Practitioners become 'data detectives' accumulating hard empirical evidence supporting their choice of a modelling approach corresponding to reality. The book is targeted to non-mathematicians with limitedknowledge of nonlinear dynamics; in particular, professionals and graduate students in engineering and the biophysical and social sciences. The book makes readers active learners with hands-on computerexperiments in R code directing them through Nonlinear Time Series Analysis (NLTS). The computer code is explained in detail so that readers can adjust it for use in their own work. The book also provides readers with an explicit framework--condensed from sound empirical practices recommended in the literature--that details a step-by-step procedure for applying NLTS in real-world data diagnostics.