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Author: Ionut Purica Publisher: Academic Press ISBN: 0128032766 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 125
Book Description
When just a handful of economists predicted the 2008 financial crisis, people should wonder how so many well educated people with enormous datasets and computing power can be so wrong. In this short book Ionut Purica joins a growing number of economists who explore the failings of mainstream economics and propose solutions developed in other disciplines, such as sociology and evolutionary biology. While it might be premature to call for a revolution, Dr. Purica echoes John Maynard Keynes in believing that economic ideas are "dangerous for good or evil." In recent years evil seems to have had the upper hand. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises" points to their ability to do good. Makes complex economics ideas accessible by carefully explaining technical terms and minimizing mathematics and equations Delivers easily-understood perspectives about the global economy by constructing broad assumptions and conclusions in the face of its infinitely complexity Challenges received economic ideas by focusing on human behavior and the roles it plays in easily-observable recent trends and events
Author: Ionut Purica Publisher: Academic Press ISBN: 0128032766 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 125
Book Description
When just a handful of economists predicted the 2008 financial crisis, people should wonder how so many well educated people with enormous datasets and computing power can be so wrong. In this short book Ionut Purica joins a growing number of economists who explore the failings of mainstream economics and propose solutions developed in other disciplines, such as sociology and evolutionary biology. While it might be premature to call for a revolution, Dr. Purica echoes John Maynard Keynes in believing that economic ideas are "dangerous for good or evil." In recent years evil seems to have had the upper hand. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Financial Crises" points to their ability to do good. Makes complex economics ideas accessible by carefully explaining technical terms and minimizing mathematics and equations Delivers easily-understood perspectives about the global economy by constructing broad assumptions and conclusions in the face of its infinitely complexity Challenges received economic ideas by focusing on human behavior and the roles it plays in easily-observable recent trends and events
Author: Gilles Dufrénot Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319052128 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 322
Book Description
This book discusses market microstructure environment within the context of the global financial crisis. In the first part, the market microstructure theory is recalled and the main microstructure models and hypotheses are discussed. The second part focuses on the main effects of the financial downturn through an examination of market microstructure dynamics. In particular, the effects of market imperfections and the limitations associated with microstructure models are discussed. Finally, the new regulations and recent developments for financial markets that aim to improve the market microstructure are discussed. Well-known experts on the subject contribute to the chapters in the book. A must-read for academic researchers, students and quantitative practitioners.
Author: Robert R. Trippi Publisher: Robert Trippi ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 546
Book Description
Computer disk illustrates behavior of several of the chaotic processes discussed in text. Assists the user in viewing the change in a system from unstable to stable states.
Author: Catherine Kyrtsou Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 042958394X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 273
Book Description
The book is motivated by the disruptions introduced by the financial crisis and the many attempts that have followed to propose new ideas and remedies. Assembling contributions by authors from a variety of backgrounds, this collection illustrates the potentials resulting from the marriage of financial economics, complexity theory and an out-of-equilibrium view of the economic world. Challenging the traditional hypotheses that lie behind financial market functioning, new evidence is provided about the hidden factors fuelling bubbles, the impact of agents’ heterogeneity, the importance of endogeneity in the information transmission mechanism, the dynamics of herding, the sources of volatility, the portfolio optimization techniques, the financial innovation and the trend identification in a nonlinear time-series framework. Presenting the advances made in financial market analysis, and putting emphasis on nonlinear dynamics, this book suggests interdisciplinary methodologies for the study of well-known stylised facts and financial abnormalities. This book was originally published as a special issue of The European Journal of Finance.
Author: Didier Sornette Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 1400885094 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 449
Book Description
The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
Author: Willi Semmler Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1315288796 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 274
Book Description
As the 55th anniversary of the bank holiday of March 1933 approached, financial instability was a main topic in the financial press. Daily reports appeared of international debt crises, of the covert bankruptcy of deposit insurance, and of the near bankruptcy of one great financial institution after another. The great stock market crash of October 19 and 20, 1987, demonstrated that extreme instability can happen. It is generally asserted that the consequences of October 19th and 20th would have been disastrous if the Federal Reserve and Treasury interventions had not set things right. In 1933, financial markets in the United States and throughout the capitalist world collapsed. In the light of historical experience, the past 55 years are the anomaly. The papers collected in this volume come from various backgrounds and research paradigms. A common theme runs through these papers that makes the collection both interesting and important: The authors take seriously the obvious evidence that capitalist economies progress through time by lurching. Whether a particular study starts from household utility maximization or from the processes by which productive structures are reproduced and expanded, the authors are united in accepting the evidence that financial instability is a significant characteristic of modern capitalism.
Author: Matthias Christian Rottner Publisher: ISBN: Category : Finance Languages : en Pages : 189
Book Description
This thesis investigates topics in macroeconomics with nonlinear dynamics as their inherent feature. It aims to further the understanding of the connection between the financial sector and economic fluctuations, challenges of monetary policy in a low interest rate environment and how to mitigate the macroeconomic consequences of a pandemic. The first chapter investigates the connection between the shadow banking sector and the vulnerability of the economy to a financial crisis. Motivated by the build-up of shadow bank leverage prior to the Great Recession, I develop a nonlinear macroeconomic model that features excessive leverage accumulation and show how this can cause a run. Introducing risk-shifting incentives to account for fluctuations in shadow bank leverage, I use the model to illustrate that extensive leverage makes the shadow banking system runnable, thereby raising the vulnerability of the economy to future financial crises. The model is taken to U.S. data with the objective of estimating the probability of a run in the years preceding the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The second chapter, joint with Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi, is motivated by the observation that the Federal Reserve Bank has been systematically undershooting its 2% inflation target in the past twenty years. This deflationary bias is a predictable consequence of the current symmetric monetary policy strategy that fails to recognize the risk of encountering the zero-lower-bound. An asymmetric rule according to which the central bank responds less aggressively to above-target inflation corrects the bias, improves welfare, and reduces the risk of deflationary spirals. The third chapter, joint with Matthieu Darracq Paries and Christoffer Kok, analyses the risk that an intended monetary policy accommodation might actually have contractionary effects in a low interest rate environment. We demonstrate that the risk of hitting the rate at which the effect reverses depends on the capitalization of the banking sector by using a nonlinear macroeconomic model. The framework suggests that the reversal interest rate is around −1% p.a. in the Euro Area. We show that the possibility of the reversal interest rate creates a novel motive for macroprudential policy. The fourth chapter, joint with Leonardo Melosi, studies contact tracing in a new macro-epidemiological model with asymptomatic spreaders. Contact tracing is a testing strategy that aims to reconstruct the infection chain of newly symptomatic agents. We show that contact tracing may be insufficient to stem the spread of infections because agents fail to internalize that their decisions increase the number of traceable contacts to be tested in the future. We provide theoretical underpinnings to the risk of becoming infected in macro-epidemiological models.
Author: Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642420397 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 268
Book Description
In recent years nonlinearities have gained increasing importance in economic and econometric research, particularly after the financial crisis and the economic downturn after 2007. This book contains theoretical, computational and empirical papers that incorporate nonlinearities in econometric models and apply them to real economic problems. It intends to serve as an inspiration for researchers to take potential nonlinearities in account. Researchers should be aware of applying linear model-types spuriously to problems which include non-linear features. It is indispensable to use the correct model type in order to avoid biased recommendations for economic policy.
Author: Ionut Purica
Author: Ionut Purica
Author: Gilles Dufrénot
Author: Dooyeon Cho
Author: Robert R. Trippi
Author: Peter Martey Addo
Author: Catherine Kyrtsou
Author: Didier Sornette
Author: Willi Semmler
Author: Matthias Christian Rottner
Author: Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom