News, Noise, and Estimates of the "true" Unobserved State of the Economy PDF Download

Author: Dennis J. Fixler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : United States
Languages : en
Pages : 74

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Author: David H. Romer
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 0815705131
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 378

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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents: Editors' Summary The Labor Market in the Great Recession By Michael W. L. Elsby (University of Michigan), Bart Hobijn (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), and Aysegül Sahin (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) The Income- and Expenditure- Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth By Jeremy J. Nalewaik (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) The Rug Rat Race By Garey Ramey and Valerie A. Ramey (University of California, San Diego) The Crisis By Alan Greenspan (Greenspan Associates LLC) The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries By Olivier J. Blanchard (International Monetary Fund and MIT), Mitali Das (International Monetary Fund), and Hamid Faruqee (International Monetary Fund) Geographic Variation in Health Care: The Role of Private Markets By Tomas J. Philipson (University of Chicago), Seth A. Seabury (RAND Corporation), Lee M. Lockwood (University of Chicago), Dana P. Goldman (University of Southern California), and Darius Lakdawalla (Univeresity of Southern California)

Author: Xiaohong Chen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461416531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 582

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This book is a collection of articles that present the most recent cutting edge results on specification and estimation of economic models written by a number of the world’s foremost leaders in the fields of theoretical and methodological econometrics. Recent advances in asymptotic approximation theory, including the use of higher order asymptotics for things like estimator bias correction, and the use of various expansion and other theoretical tools for the development of bootstrap techniques designed for implementation when carrying out inference are at the forefront of theoretical development in the field of econometrics. One important feature of these advances in the theory of econometrics is that they are being seamlessly and almost immediately incorporated into the “empirical toolbox” that applied practitioners use when actually constructing models using data, for the purposes of both prediction and policy analysis and the more theoretically targeted chapters in the book will discuss these developments. Turning now to empirical methodology, chapters on prediction methodology will focus on macroeconomic and financial applications, such as the construction of diffusion index models for forecasting with very large numbers of variables, and the construction of data samples that result in optimal predictive accuracy tests when comparing alternative prediction models. Chapters carefully outline how applied practitioners can correctly implement the latest theoretical refinements in model specification in order to “build” the best models using large-scale and traditional datasets, making the book of interest to a broad readership of economists from theoretical econometricians to applied economic practitioners.

Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on the Budget
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Budget
Languages : en
Pages : 68

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commercial statistics
Languages : en
Pages : 124

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Author: Pengfei Ni
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1781008922
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 411

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'This Report – 2011 gives an overwhelming amount of comprehensive information for city managers trying to cope with the ever-increasing competition between cities in attracting investments, talent, firms, knowledge, events etc. Apart from an update of the ranking of 500 cities this new publication offers a lot of additional information, such as a selection of the best examples of competitive cities. The book is recommended for everybody interested in the strengths and weaknesses of the major cities in the world.' – Leo van den Berg, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands 'Ni Pengfei's GUCRs are distinctive for their methodology and the comprehensiveness of coverage. In this edition Ni offers us three new insights. In three chapters he analyses aspects of the competitiveness of five functional categories of cities as centers, such as finance, technology, politics, manufacturing and port/logistics. The determinants of the elements in his Global Urban Competitiveness Report, give us an indication of the importance of each of the elements. The Report also provides eleven examples of best city practices. A must-read book.' – Peter Karl Kresl, Bucknell University, US The Global Urban Competitiveness Report – 2011 is an empirical study of the competitiveness of 500 cities around the world. This one-of-a-kind annual resource draws on a wealth of data sources, all of which are described and assessed. Using a sophisticated methodology and a team of 100 researchers from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the book not only ranks these cities but also presents a treasury of information with regard to the strengths and weaknesses of each city in relation to each other. The book includes a full discussion of the factors that create urban competitiveness and what sorts or categories of cities are most competitive, and comments on the policies and initiatives that are adopted by the most competitive cities. Scholars and researchers in the areas of urban economics, planning, geography and regional economics will find the information invaluable, as will local authorities, decision-makers and economic planners in cities throughout the world.

Author: Todd E. Clark
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 70

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A body of recent work suggests commonly-used VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. These methods include using different approaches to lag selection, different observation windows for estimation, (over-) differencing, intercept correction, stochastically time-varying parameters, break dating, discounted least squares, Bayesian shrinkage, and detrending of inflation and interest rates. Although each individual method could be useful, the uncertainty inherent in any single representation of instability could mean that combining forecasts from the entire range of VAR estimates will further improve forecast accuracy. Focusing on models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper examines the effectiveness of combination in improving VAR forecasts made with real-time data. The combinations include simple averages, medians, trimmed means, and a number of weighted combinations, based on: Bates-Granger regressions, factor model estimates, regressions involving just forecast quartiles, Bayesian model averaging, and predictive least squares-based weighting. Our goal is to identify those approaches that, in real time, yield the most accurate forecasts of these variables. We use forecasts from simple univariate time series models and the Survey of Professional Forecasters as benchmarks.

Author: C. James Hueng
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN: 0880996765
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 133

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Book Description
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.

Author: David Reifschneider
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 78

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Great Britain
Languages : en
Pages : 492

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