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Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 89
Book Description
The current expansion of natural gas (NG) development in the United States requires an understanding of how this change will affect the natural gas industry, downstream consumers, and economic growth in order to promote effective planning and policy development. The impact of this expansion may propagate through the NG system and US economy via changes in manufacturing, electric power generation, transportation, commerce, and increased exports of liquefied natural gas. We conceptualize this problem as supply shock propagation that pushes the NG system and the economy away from its current state of infrastructure development and level of natural gas use. To illustrate this, the project developed two core modeling approaches. The first is an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach which addresses shock propagation throughout the existing natural gas distribution system. The second approach uses a System Dynamics-based model to illustrate the feedback mechanisms related to finding new supplies of natural gas - notably shale gas - and how those mechanisms affect exploration investments in the natural gas market with respect to proven reserves. The ABM illustrates several stylized scenarios of large liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the U.S. The ABM preliminary results demonstrate that such scenario is likely to have substantial effects on NG prices and on pipeline capacity utilization. Our preliminary results indicate that the price of natural gas in the U.S. may rise by about 50% when the LNG exports represent 15% of the system-wide demand. The main findings of the System Dynamics model indicate that proven reserves for coalbed methane, conventional gas and now shale gas can be adequately modeled based on a combination of geologic, economic and technology-based variables. A base case scenario matches historical proven reserves data for these three types of natural gas. An environmental scenario, based on implementing a $50/tonne CO 2 tax results in less proven reserves being developed in the coming years while demand may decrease in the absence of acceptable substitutes, incentives or changes in consumer behavior. An increase in demand of 25% increases proven reserves being developed by a very small amount by the end of the forecast period of 2025.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 89
Book Description
The current expansion of natural gas (NG) development in the United States requires an understanding of how this change will affect the natural gas industry, downstream consumers, and economic growth in order to promote effective planning and policy development. The impact of this expansion may propagate through the NG system and US economy via changes in manufacturing, electric power generation, transportation, commerce, and increased exports of liquefied natural gas. We conceptualize this problem as supply shock propagation that pushes the NG system and the economy away from its current state of infrastructure development and level of natural gas use. To illustrate this, the project developed two core modeling approaches. The first is an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach which addresses shock propagation throughout the existing natural gas distribution system. The second approach uses a System Dynamics-based model to illustrate the feedback mechanisms related to finding new supplies of natural gas - notably shale gas - and how those mechanisms affect exploration investments in the natural gas market with respect to proven reserves. The ABM illustrates several stylized scenarios of large liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the U.S. The ABM preliminary results demonstrate that such scenario is likely to have substantial effects on NG prices and on pipeline capacity utilization. Our preliminary results indicate that the price of natural gas in the U.S. may rise by about 50% when the LNG exports represent 15% of the system-wide demand. The main findings of the System Dynamics model indicate that proven reserves for coalbed methane, conventional gas and now shale gas can be adequately modeled based on a combination of geologic, economic and technology-based variables. A base case scenario matches historical proven reserves data for these three types of natural gas. An environmental scenario, based on implementing a $50/tonne CO 2 tax results in less proven reserves being developed in the coming years while demand may decrease in the absence of acceptable substitutes, incentives or changes in consumer behavior. An increase in demand of 25% increases proven reserves being developed by a very small amount by the end of the forecast period of 2025.
Author: Heinz-Adalbert Krebs Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand ISBN: 3737610509 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 814
Book Description
The energy industry worldwide is facing one of the most profound changes in its history, which will be accompanied by breakthrough innovations and the exponentially evolving use of artificial intelligence in business processes. In addition to the use of artificial intelligence and AI-supported unmanned systems (on land, at sea and in the air), distributed-ledger-technologies, extended reality and 3D-print based on cyber-physical systems and the Internet of Things, as well as process mining, robotic process automation, data science and cloud computing, for example, will not only decisively shape a sustainable energy supply system in the future, but also accelerate the transformation to energy industry 4.0. At the same time, the increasingly strong networking (smart grid, smart meter, smart home, smart city) of the energy industry and its environment is associated with a growing risk potential, which must be expanded in the future as part of a high-quality cyber resilience, in particular through the use of artificial intelligence. Without the development and use of innovations and artificial intelligence in the context of increasingly digitized business processes, there is a risk that neither the energy transition can be successfully implemented nor climate change combated. In addition to the fundamentals of the classic, primarily analog energy industry, the publication addresses the possible paradigm shift that will be characterized by innovations, disruptive technologies and digital business models in the energy industry.
Author: Nimir O. Elbashir Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119269628 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 584
Book Description
A comprehensive review of the current status and challenges for natural gas and shale gas production, treatment and monetization technologies Natural Gas Processing from Midstream to Downstream presents an international perspective on the production and monetization of shale gas and natural gas. The authors review techno-economic assessments of the midstream and downstream natural gas processing technologies. Comprehensive in scope, the text offers insight into the current status and the challenges facing the advancement of the midstream natural gas treatments. Treatments covered include gas sweeting processes, sulfur recovery units, gas dehydration and natural gas pipeline transportation. The authors highlight the downstream processes including physical treatment and chemical conversion of both direct and indirect conversion. The book also contains an important overview of natural gas monetization processes and the potential for shale gas to play a role in the future of the energy market, specifically for the production of ultra-clean fuels and value-added chemicals. This vital resource: Provides fundamental chemical engineering aspects of natural gas technologies Covers topics related to upstream, midstream and downstream natural gas treatment and processing Contains well-integrated coverage of several technologies and processes for treatment and production of natural gas Highlights the economic factors and risks facing the monetization technologies Discusses supply chain, environmental and safety issues associated with the emerging shale gas industry Identifies future trends in educational and research opportunities, directions and emerging opportunities in natural gas monetization Includes contributions from leading researchers in academia and industry Written for Industrial scientists, academic researchers and government agencies working on developing and sustaining state-of-the-art technologies in gas and fuels production and processing, Natural Gas Processing from Midstream to Downstream provides a broad overview of the current status and challenges for natural gas production, treatment and monetization technologies.
Author: Mulan Xiaofeng Wang Publisher: ISBN: Category : Business logistics Languages : en Pages : 216
Book Description
My dissertation concentrates on several aspects of supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including gas pipeline transportations, ocean LNG shipping logistics, and downstream storage. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the natural gas and LNG industries, and the topics studied in this thesis. Chapter 2 studies how to value U.S. natural gas pipeline network transport contracts as real options. It is common for natural gas shippers to value and manage contracts by simple adaptations of financial spread option formulas that do not fully account for the implications of the capacity limits and the network structure that distinguish these contracts. In contrast, we show that these operational features can be fully captured and integrated with financial considerations in a fairly easy and managerially significant manner by a model that combines linear programming and simulation. We derive pathwise estimators for the so called deltas and structurally characterize them. We interpret them in a novel fashion as discounted expectations, under a specific weighing distribution, of the amounts of natural gas to be procured/marketed when optimally using pipeline capacity. Based on the actual prices of traded natural gas futures and basis swaps, we show that an enhanced version of the common approach employed in practice can significantly underestimate the true value of natural gas pipeline network capacity. Our model also exhibits promising financial (delta) hedging performance. Thus, this model emerges as an easy to use and useful tool that natural gas shippers can employ to support their valuation and delta hedging decisions concerning natural gas pipeline network transport capacity contracts. Moreover, the insights that follow from our data analysis have broader significance and implications in terms of the management of real options beyond our specific application. Motivated by current developments in the LNG industry, Chapter 3 studies the operations of LNG supply chains facing both supply and price risk. To model the supply uncertainty, we employ a closed-queuing-network (CQN) model to represent upstream LNG production and shipping, via special oceans-going tankers, to a downstream re-gasification facility in the U.S, which sells natural gas into the wholesale spot market. The CQN shipping model analytically generates the unloaded amount probability distribution. Price uncertainty is captured by the spot price, which experiences both volatility and significant seasonality, i.e., higher prices in winter. We use a trinomial lattice to model the price uncertainty, and calibrate to the extended forward curves. Taking the outputs from the CQN model and the spot price model as stochastic inputs, we formulate a real option inventory-release model to study the benefit of optimally managing a downstream LNG storage facility. This allows characterization of the structure of the optimal inventory management policy. An interesting finding is that when it is optimal to sell, it is not necessarily optimal to sell the entire available inventory. The model can be used by LNG players to value and manage the real option to store LNG at a re-gasification facility, and is easy to be implemented. For example, this model is particularly useful to value leasing contracts for portions of the facility capacity. Real data is used to assess the value of the real option to store LNG at the downstream re-gasification facility, and, contrary to what has been claimed by some practitioners, we find that it has significant value (several million dollars). Chapter 4 studies the importance of modeling the shipping variability when valuing and managing a downstream LNG storage facility. The shipping model presented in Chapter 3 uses a "rolling forward" method to generate the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) unloaded amount in each decision period. We study the merit of the i.i.d. assumption by using simulation and developing an upper bound. We show that the model, which uses the i.i.d. unloaded amount, provides a good estimation of the storage value, and yields a near optimal inventory control policy. We also test the performance of a model that uses constant throughput to determine the inventory release policy. This model performs worse than the model of Chapter 3 for storage valuation purposes, but can be used to suggest the optimal inventory control policy, especially when the ratio of flow rate to storage size is high, i.e., storage is scarce. Chapter 5 summarizes the contributions of this thesis.
Author: Sanjoy Kumar Paul Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 0443184658 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 470
Book Description
Sustainable supply chain management involves integrating environmentally and financially viable practices into the complete supply chain lifecycle, from product design and development to material selection and sourcing, manufacturing, packaging, transportation, and distribution. A sustainable supply chain ensures balance between economic, social, and environmental performances – such as better assurance of human rights, ethical work practices, carbon footprint reduction, waste management, and resource efficiency. Computational Intelligence Techniques for Sustainable Supply Chain Management presents state-of-the-art computational intelligence techniques and applications for supply chain sustainability issues and logistic problems, filling the gap between general textbooks on sustainable supply chain management and more specialized literature dealing with methods for computational intelligence. This book focuses on addressing problems in advanced topics in the sustainable supply chain, and will appeal to practitioners, managers, researchers, academicians, students, and professionals interested in sustainable logistics, sustainable procurement, sustainable manufacturing, sustainable inventory and production management, sustainable scheduling, sustainable transportation, and sustainable network design. Serves as a reference on computational intelligence–enabled sustainable supply chains for graduate students in computer/data science, industrial engineering, industrial ecology, and business Explores key topics in sustainable supply chain informatics, that is, heuristics, metaheuristics, robotics, simulation, machine learning, big data analytics and artificial intelligence Provides a foundation for industry leaders and professionals to understand recent and cutting-edge methodologies and technologies in the domain of sustainable supply chain powered by computational intelligence techniques
Author: Yacob Khojasteh Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9811041067 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 335
Book Description
This book covers important issues related to managing supply chain risks from various perspectives. Supply chains today are vulnerable to disruptions with a significant impact on firms’ business and performance. The aim of supply chain risk management is to identify the potential sources of risks and implement appropriate actions in order to mitigate supply chain disruptions. This book presents a set of models, frameworks, strategies, and analyses that are essential for managing supply chain risks. As a comprehensive collection of the latest research and most recent cutting-edge developments on supply chain risk and its management, the book is structured into three main parts: 1) Supply Chain Risk Management; 2) Supply Chain Vulnerability and Disruptions Management; and 3) Toward a Resilient Supply Chain. Leading academic researchers as well as practitioners have contributed chapters, combining theoretical findings and research results with a practical and contemporary view on how companies can manage the supply chain risks and disruptions, as well as how to create a resilient supply chain. This book can serve as an essential source for students and scholars who are interested in pursuing research or teaching courses in the rapidly growing area of supply chain risk management. It can also provide an interesting and informative read for managers and practitioners who need to deepen their knowledge of effective supply chain risk management.
Author: Nimir O. Elbashir Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119270251 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 584
Book Description
A comprehensive review of the current status and challenges for natural gas and shale gas production, treatment and monetization technologies Natural Gas Processing from Midstream to Downstream presents an international perspective on the production and monetization of shale gas and natural gas. The authors review techno-economic assessments of the midstream and downstream natural gas processing technologies. Comprehensive in scope, the text offers insight into the current status and the challenges facing the advancement of the midstream natural gas treatments. Treatments covered include gas sweeting processes, sulfur recovery units, gas dehydration and natural gas pipeline transportation. The authors highlight the downstream processes including physical treatment and chemical conversion of both direct and indirect conversion. The book also contains an important overview of natural gas monetization processes and the potential for shale gas to play a role in the future of the energy market, specifically for the production of ultra-clean fuels and value-added chemicals. This vital resource: Provides fundamental chemical engineering aspects of natural gas technologies Covers topics related to upstream, midstream and downstream natural gas treatment and processing Contains well-integrated coverage of several technologies and processes for treatment and production of natural gas Highlights the economic factors and risks facing the monetization technologies Discusses supply chain, environmental and safety issues associated with the emerging shale gas industry Identifies future trends in educational and research opportunities, directions and emerging opportunities in natural gas monetization Includes contributions from leading researchers in academia and industry Written for Industrial scientists, academic researchers and government agencies working on developing and sustaining state-of-the-art technologies in gas and fuels production and processing, Natural Gas Processing from Midstream to Downstream provides a broad overview of the current status and challenges for natural gas production, treatment and monetization technologies.
Author: Chiang Kao Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319317180 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 447
Book Description
This book presents the underlying theory, model development, and applications of network Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in a systematic way. The field of network DEA extends and complements conventional DEA by considering not only inputs and outputs when measuring system efficiency, but also the internal structure of the system being analyzed. By analyzing the efficiency of individual internal components, and more particularly by studying the effects of relationships among components which are modeled and implemented by means of various network structures, the “network DEA” approach is able to help identify and manage the specific components that contribute inefficiencies into the overall systems. This relatively new approach comprises an important analytical tool based on mathematical programming techniques, with valuable implications to production and operations management. The existing models for measuring the efficiency of systems of specific network structures are also discussed, and the relationships between the system and component efficiencies are explored. This book should be able to inspire new research and new applications based on the current state of the art. Performance evaluation is an important task in management, and is needed to (i) better understand the past accomplishments of an organization and (ii) plan for its future development. However, this task becomes rather challenging when multiple performance metrics are involved. DEA is a powerful tool to cope with such issues. For systems or operations composed of interrelated processes, managers need to know how the performances of the various processes evaluated and how they are aggregated to form the overall performance of the system. This book provides an advanced exposition on performance evaluation of systems with network structures. It explores the network nature of most production and operation systems, and explains why network analyses are necessary.
Author: Sanjay Kumar Kar Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9811031185 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 392
Book Description
This book shares the latest market developments and advances in natural gas demand, supply, transmission, distribution, and consumption, with a special emphasis on the Indian context. Chapters are written by researchers and industry professionals working in the field of natural gas and energy to provide deeper insights into natural gas market structure, market development, business opportunities and market growth. Topics covered include, natural gas demand-supply, exploration and production policy, downstream regulatory developments, city gas distribution, pipeline, pricing, and taxation policies impacting natural gas market developments in India. The book will be useful to researchers, professionals, and policy makers working in the area of natural gas and related fields.
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Author: 
Author: Heinz-Adalbert Krebs
Author: Nimir O. Elbashir
Author: Mulan Xiaofeng Wang
Author: 
Author: Sanjoy Kumar Paul
Author: Yacob Khojasteh
Author: Nimir O. Elbashir
Author: Chiang Kao
Author: Sanjay Kumar Kar