Multivariate Geostatistical Analysis of Groundwater Contamination by Pesticide and Nitrate PDF Download

Author: Jeffrey D. Smyth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Groundwater
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description
A field study was conducted to determine the applicability of multivariate geostatistical methods to the problem of estimating and simulating pesticide concentrations in groundwater from measured concentrations of nitrate and pesticide, when pesticide is undersampled. Prior to this study, no published attempt had been made to apply multivariate geostatistics to groundwater contamination. The study was divided into two complementary aspects of geostatistics: estimation and simulation. The use of kriging and cokriging to estimate nitrate and the herbicide dimethyl tetrachloroterepthalate (DCPA) contaminant densities is described in Chapter I. Measured concentrations of nitrate and the DCPA were obtained for 42 wells in a shallow unconfined alluvial and basin-fill aquifer in a 16.5 km2 agricultural area in eastern Oregon. The correlation coefficient between log(nitrate) and log(DCPA) was 0.74. Isotropic, spherical models were fitted to experimental direct- and cross-semivariograms with correlation ranges and sliding neighborhoods of 4 km. The relative gain for estimates obtained by cokriging ranged from 14 to 34%. Additional sample locations were selected for nitrate and DCPA using the fictitious point method. A simple economic analysis demonstrated that additional nitrate samples would be more beneficial in reducing estimation variances than additional DCPA samples, unless the costs of nitrate and DCPA analysis were identical. These estimates are by definition, the Best Linear Unbiased Estimates (i.e., the estimates with minimized estimation variance), however the requirement of minimized variance smoothes the variability of contaminant values. The application of conditional simulations to groundwater contamination is described in Chapter 11. Conditional simulation allows the degree of fluctuation of nitrate and DCPA between sample points to be assesed. With knowledge of both the 'best' estimates and the of the variability between sample points, nitrate and DCPA groundwater contamination in the study area can be characterized Based on the semivariogram models found in Chapter I, univariate and multivariate conditional simulations of nitrate and DCPA were generated using the turning bands method and the kriging or cokriging system. Kriging was used to condition the univariate simulations, while cokriging was used to cross-correlate and condition the multivariate simulations. The mean of 25 conditional and coconditional simulations at 8 different locations in the study area were generated and compared to kriging and cokriging estimates and 95% confidence intervals. Both conditional and coconditional simulation of the DCPA and nitrate contaminant densities showed large variations when values in different simulations were compared. The fluctuation in values demonstrate the uncertainties in the contaminant distributions when sample sizes are small. As a result of this unkown component, simulated values vary widely. Coconditional simulation displayed the cross-correlation imposed by using the cokriging system to condition the simulations. After 25 simulations, the mean remained unstable indicating that more simulations would be required to enable comparisons with kriging and cokriging estimates.