Multivariate GARCH and Realized Volatility Models PDF Download

Author: Robert Charles Lee (III.)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 144

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Author: Luc Bauwens
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118272056
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 566

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Book Description
A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Author: Massimiliano Caporin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39

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This paper proposes structured parametrizations for multivariate volatility models, which use spatial weight matrices induced by economic proximity. These structured specifications aim at solving the curse of dimensionality problem, which limits feasibility of model-estimation to small cross-sections for unstructured models. Structured parametrizations possess the following four desirable properties: i) they are flexible, allowing for covariance spill-over; ii) they are parsimonious, being characterized by a number of parameters that grows only linearly with the cross-section dimension; iii) model parameters have a direct economic interpretation that reflects the chosen notion of economic classification; iv) model-estimation computations are faster than for unstructured specifications. We give examples of structured specifications for multivariate GARCH models as well as for Stochastic- and Realized-Volatility models. The paper also discusses how to construct spatial weight matrices that are time-varying and possibly derived from a set of covariates.

Author: Peter Reinhard Hansen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometric models
Languages : en
Pages : 41

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Abstract: We introduce a multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures of volatility and covolatility. The realized measures extract information about the current level of volatility and covolatility from high-frequency data, which is particularly useful for the modeling of return volatility during periods with rapid changes in volatility and covolatility. When applied to market returns in conjunction with returns on an individual asset, the model yields a dynamic model of the conditional regression coefficient that is known as the beta. We apply the model to a large set of assets and find the conditional betas to be far more variable than is usually found with rolling-window regressions based exclusively on daily returns. In the empirical part of the paper we examine the cross-sectional as well as the time variation of the conditional beta series during the financial crises.

Author: Longbing Cao
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642173136
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 589

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With the ever-growing power of generating, transmitting, and collecting huge amounts of data, information overloadis nowan imminent problemto mankind. The overwhelming demand for information processing is not just about a better understanding of data, but also a better usage of data in a timely fashion. Data mining, or knowledge discovery from databases, is proposed to gain insight into aspects ofdata and to help peoplemakeinformed,sensible,and better decisions. At present, growing attention has been paid to the study, development, and application of data mining. As a result there is an urgent need for sophisticated techniques and toolsthat can handle new ?elds of data mining, e. g. , spatialdata mining, biomedical data mining, and mining on high-speed and time-variant data streams. The knowledge of data mining should also be expanded to new applications. The 6th International Conference on Advanced Data Mining and Appli- tions(ADMA2010)aimedtobringtogethertheexpertsondataminingthrou- out the world. It provided a leading international forum for the dissemination of original research results in advanced data mining techniques, applications, al- rithms, software and systems, and di?erent applied disciplines. The conference attracted 361 online submissions from 34 di?erent countries and areas. All full papers were peer reviewed by at least three members of the Program Comm- tee composed of international experts in data mining ?elds. A total number of 118 papers were accepted for the conference. Amongst them, 63 papers were selected as regular papers and 55 papers were selected as short papers.

Author: Yongdeng Xu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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This paper proposes a new class of multivariate volatility model that utilising high-frequency data. We call this model the DCC-HEAVY model as key ingredients are the Engle (2002) DCC model and Shephard and Sheppard (2012) HEAVY model. We discuss the models' dynamics and highlight their differences from DCC-GARCH models. Specifically, the dynamics of conditional variances are driven by the lagged realized variances, while the dynamics of conditional correlations are driven by the lagged realized correlations in the DCC-HEAVY model. The new model removes well known asymptotic bias in DCC-GARCH model estimation and has more desirable asymptotic properties. We also derive a Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and provide closed-form formulas for multi-step forecasts. Empirical results suggest that the DCC-HEAVY model outperforms the DCC-GARCH model in and out-of-sample.

Author: Torben Gustav Andersen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540712976
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1045

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Book Description
The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.

Author: Torben G. Andersen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 62

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Book Description
This paper discusses the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions.

Author: Geert Dhaene
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 21

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Book Description
We introduce and evaluate mixed-frequency multivariate GARCH models for forecasting low-frequency (weekly or monthly) multivariate volatility based on high-frequency intra-day returns (at five-minute intervals) and on the overnight returns. The low-frequency conditional volatility matrix is modelled as a weighted sum of an intra-day and an overnight component, driven by the intra-day and the overnight returns, respectively. The components are specified as multivariate GARCH (1,1) models of the BEKK type, adapted to the mixed-frequency data setting. For the intra-day component, the squared high-frequency returns enter the GARCH model through a parametrically specified mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) weight function or through the sum of the intra-day realized volatilities. For the overnight component, the squared overnight returns enter the model with equal weights. Alternatively, the low-frequency conditional volatility matrix may be modelled as a single-component BEKK-GARCH model where the overnight returns and the high-frequency returns enter through the weekly realized volatility (defined as the unweighted sum of squares of overnight and high-frequency returns), or where the overnight returns are simply ignored. All model variants may further be extended by allowing for a non-parametrically estimated slowly-varying long-run volatility matrix. The proposed models are evaluated using five-minute and overnight return data on four DJIA stocks (AXP, GE, HD, and IBM) from January 1988 to November 2014. The focus is on forecasting weekly volatilities (defined as the low frequency). The mixed-frequency GARCH models are found to systematically dominate the low-frequency GARCH model in terms of in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. They also exhibit much lower low-frequency volatility persistence than the low-frequency GARCH model. Among the mixed-frequency models, the low-frequency persistence estimates decrease as the data frequency increases from daily to five-minute frequency, and as overnight returns are included. That is, ignoring the available high-frequency information leads to spuriously high volatility persistence. Among the other findings are that the single-component model variants perform worse than the two-component variants; that the overnight volatility component exhibits more persistence than the intra-day component; and that MIDAS weighting performs better than not weighting at all (i.e., than realized volatility).

Author: Tim Bollerslev
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 49

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Book Description
We propose new asymmetric multivariate volatility models. The models exploit estimates of variances and covariances based on the signs of high-frequency returns, measures known as realized semivariances, semicovariances, and semicorrelations, to allow for more nuanced responses to positive and negative return shocks than threshold “leverage effect” terms traditionally used in the literature. Our empirical implementations of the new models, including extensions of widely-used bivariate GARCH pecifications for a number of individual stocks and the aggregate market portfolio as well as larger dimensional dynamic conditional correlation type formulations for a cross-section of individual stocks, provide clear evidence of improved model fit and reveal new and interesting asymmetric joint dynamic dependencies.