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Author: Marcin Kolasa Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
We develop an extension of the open economy New Keynesian model in which agents are boundedly rational à la Gabaix (2020). Our setup nests rational expectations (RE) as a special case and it can successfully mitigate many “puzzling” aspects of the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates. Since the model implies an uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition featuring behavioral expectations, our results are also consistent with recent empirical evidence showing that several UIP puzzles vanish when actual exchange rate expectations are used (instead of realizations implicitly coupled with the RE assumption). We find that cognitive discounting dampens the effects of current monetary shocks and lowers the efficacy of forward guidance (FG), but its relative importance in mitigating the so-called FG puzzle is decreasing in openness. Finally, we show that accounting for myopia exacerbates the small open economy unit-root problem, makes positive monetary spillovers more likely, and increases the persistence of net foreign assets and the real exchange rate.
Author: Marcin Kolasa Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
We develop an extension of the open economy New Keynesian model in which agents are boundedly rational à la Gabaix (2020). Our setup nests rational expectations (RE) as a special case and it can successfully mitigate many “puzzling” aspects of the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates. Since the model implies an uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition featuring behavioral expectations, our results are also consistent with recent empirical evidence showing that several UIP puzzles vanish when actual exchange rate expectations are used (instead of realizations implicitly coupled with the RE assumption). We find that cognitive discounting dampens the effects of current monetary shocks and lowers the efficacy of forward guidance (FG), but its relative importance in mitigating the so-called FG puzzle is decreasing in openness. Finally, we show that accounting for myopia exacerbates the small open economy unit-root problem, makes positive monetary spillovers more likely, and increases the persistence of net foreign assets and the real exchange rate.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Until now, thinking on open economy macroeconomics has been largely schizophrenic. When it comes to analyzing exchange rate dynamics, an empirically-minded economist abandons modern current account models which, while theoretically coherent, fail to address the awkward reality of sticky nominal prices. In this paper we develop an analytically tractable two-country model that marries a full account of dynamics to a supply framework based on monopolistic competition and sticky prices. It offers simple and intuitive predictions about exchange rates and current accounts that sometimes differ sharply from those of either modern flexible-price intertemporal models, or traditional sticky-price Keynesian models. The model also leads to a novel perspective on the international welfare spillovers of monetary and fiscal policies.
Author: Jonas Böhmer Publisher: GRIN Verlag ISBN: 3640438590 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 18
Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 1,3, University of Bonn (Wirtschaftspolitische Abteilung der Rechts- und Staatswissenschaftlichen Fakultät), course: Geldtheorie- und politik, language: English, abstract: Does inflation reduce welfare? What is worse, a volatile exchange rate or a high inflation rate? And is the central bank able to drive these variables? These questions are the topic of a paper by Jordi Gali and Tommaso Monacelli, published in 2005 and titled “Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy”. As apparent by the title Gali and Monacelli (G+M) analyze the influence of monetary policy on the volatility of the exchange rate, more precisely the nominal exchange rate and the terms of trade. For this purpose they create a small open economy with sticky prices of Calvo-type. Due to its minor size this economy does not influence the world economy. However, depending on the degree of openness this economy is affected by the rest of the world. Having specified this framework, G+M introduce three different monetary regimes and evaluate the resulting exchange rate volatilities . Using a central bank loss function G+M rank these three rules according to the implied welfare which shows a positive correlation between welfare and exchange rate volatility. Thence G+M prefer Taylor rules over an exchange rate pegging. To get a general idea of Gali and Monacelli`s argumentation this expose will start in chapter 2 with an abbreviated overlook over G+M’s model of a small open economy. In the following chapter there will be the introduction of the three central bank rules, necessary to close the model, as well as an analysis of the underlying welfare levels. Since the welfare evaluation is based on some special assumptions, chapter 4 will give an overview of recent literature which discusses possible extensions as well as their implications for G+M’s ranking of implied welfare. Concluding chapter 5 will summarize G+M’s most important results as well as evaluate if the possible extensions render G+M’s analysis, respectively their results, worthless.
Author: Gustavo Adler Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484328779 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
We study exchange rate dynamics under cooperative and self-oriented policies in a two-country DSGE model with unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. The cooperative solution features a large exchange rate adjustment that cushions the impact of negative shocks and a moderate use of unconventional policy instruments. Self-oriented policies (Nash equilibrium), however, entail limited exchange rate movements and an aggressive use of unconventional policies in both countries. Our results highlight the role of international policy cooperation in allowing the exchange rate to play the traditional role of shock absorber.
Author: Konstantinos Mavromatis Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The thesis consists of three chapters of self-contained empirical and theoretical studies. In Chapter 1, I examine whether the Balassa-Samuelson effect is indeed the reason behind the behaviour of the currencies of transition economies. So far, in the literature, transition Economies appear to be subject to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. This implies that their currencies experience a prolonged appreciation in real terms as their convergence goes on. However, in the current literature, the effects of the capital account have not been analyzed extensively. In this paper I show that the capital account, rather than productivity, is a key determinant of the appreciation of the currencies of transition economies. I find that a long-run relationship exists between the real exchange rate, productivity, the real interest rate differential and the capital account. Moreover, those variables are found to cointegrate in a nonlinear fashion according to a smooth transition autoregressive model. This implies that a multivariate smooth transition error correction model is the appropriate model to describe their short-run and long-run dynamics. In Chapter 2, I examine the importance of a real exchange rate target in the monetary policy of a central bank. I address that question both empirically and theoretically. Using monthly data I estimate of a structural VAR model for the Eurozone providing evidence in favour of real exchange rate targeting. I examine this case theoretically using a twocountry DSGE model; I find that when the home central bank includes a real exchange rate target in its interest rate rule, it achieves lower welfare losses compared to the Taylor rule. Contrary to similar papers, I compute the optimized coefficients in the interest rate rules considered. I show that the benefits from real exchange rate targeting at home rise as persistence in inflation and output increases. In the robustness analysis I show that a rise in the fraction of backward looking consumers affects negatively the performance of the real exchange rate targeting rule and positively that of the Taylor rule. Asymmetries in the degree of rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption have important effects, as regards the performance of a real exchange rate targeting rule. The performance of both rules is not sensitive to variations in the degree of backward looking price setting behavior . In Chapter 3, I show, using both empirical and theoretical analysis, that changes in monetary policy in one country can have important effects on other economies. My new empirical evidence shows that changes in the monetary policy behaviour of the Fed since the start of the Euro, well captured by a Markov-switching Taylor rule, have had significant effects on the behaviour of inflation and output in the Eurozone even though ECB's monetary policy is found to be fairly stable. Using a two-country DSGE model, I examine this case theoretically; monetary policy in one of the countries (labelled foreign) switches regimes according to a Markov-switching process and this has nonnegligible effects in the other (home) country. Switching by the foreign central bank renders commitment to a time invariant interest rate rule suboptimal for the home central bank. This is because home agents expectations change as foreign monetary policy changes which affects the dynamics of home inflation and output. Optimal policy in the home country instead reacts to the regime of the foreign monetary policy and so implies a time-varying reaction of the home Central Bank. Following this time-varying optimal policy at home eliminates the effects in the home country of foreign regime shifts, and also reduces dramatically the effects in the foreign country. Therefore, changes in foreign monetary regimes should not be neglected in considering monetary policy at home.
Author: Camila Casas Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 148433017X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 62
Book Description
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN: 9781513558769 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.
Author: Martin D. D. Evans Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 1400838843 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 561
Book Description
A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas
Author: Marcin Kolasa
Author: Marcin Kolasa
Author: 
Author: 
Author: Jonas Böhmer
Author: Gustavo Adler
Author: Gregor Bäurle
Author: Konstantinos Mavromatis
Author: Camila Casas
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Martin D. D. Evans