Author: Mr.Elie Canetti Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451848838 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 49
Book Description
This paper examines the relative importance of monetary growth and exchange rate depreciation as causes of inflation in a sample of 10 Sub-Saharan African countries. Causality tests and impulse response functions derived from vector autoregression (VAR) analysis suggest that both monetary expansion and exchange rate adjustments cause inflation in a number of these countries. However, the failure of the tests to attribute the bulk of the variance in inflation in most of the countries to either variable suggests either a problem with the statistical technique or that some other factor--perhaps structural bottlenecks or a measure of overall macroeconomic policy stance incorporating both monetary and exchange rate policy--may be even more important as a determinant of inflation in African countries.
Author: Elie Canetti Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 49
Book Description
This paper examines the relative importance of monetary growth and exchange rate depreciation as causes of inflation In a sample of 10 Sub-Saharan African countries. Causality tests and impulse response functions derived from vector autoregression (VAR) analysis suggest that both monetary expansion and exchange rate adjustments cause inflation in a number of these countries. However, the failure of the tests to attribute the bulk of the variance in inflation in most of the countries to either variable suggests either a problem with the statistical technique or that some other factor--perhaps structural bottlenecks or a measure of overall macroeconomic policy stance incorporating both monetary and exchange rate policy--may be even more Important as a determinant of inflation in African countries.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451953658 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 22
Book Description
Since the mid-1970s the annual inflation rate in Africa has averaged more than 15 percent, with many countries experiencing rates of 20 percent or more. Inflation rates of this magnitude have significant adverse effects on the financial sectors of African countries, particularly in the context of fixed nominal interest rates. Econometric analysis points strongly to monetary expansion as a major cause of inflation in African countries generally. Exchange rate depreciation is also associated with higher inflation, although in some countries the domestic currency was depreciated to offset the effects of recent inflation, rather than being a cause of inflation.
Author: Ajay Chhibber Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Africa Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
Is there a link between devaluation and high inflation? It depends on accompanying monetary and fiscal policies and the presence of parallel markets. An open capital account would curtail fiscal profligacy and provide price stability without jeopardizing growth.
Author: Joshua Eli Greene Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 25
Book Description
Since the mid-1970s the annual inflation rate in Africa has averaged more than 15 percent, with many countries experiencing rates of 20 percent or more. Inflation rates of this magnitude have significant adverse effects on the financial sectors of African countries, particularly in the context of fixed nominal interest rates. Econometric analysis points strongly to monetary expansion as a major cause of inflation in African countries generally. Exchange rate depreciation is also associated with higher inflation, although in some countries the domestic currency was depreciated to offset the effects of recent inflation, rather than being a cause of inflation.
Author: Laurent Kemoe Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
This paper provides new evidence on the exchange rate passthrough to domestic inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using both bilateral US dollar exchange rate and the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), and monthly data. We find that depreciations cause sizable increases in domestic inflation. The passthrough in SSA is higher than in other regions and its magnitude depends on the exchange rate regime, type of exchange rate (bilateral versus NEER), natural resource endowment and domestic market competitiveness. The passthrough is found to be disproportionately larger and more persistent for large depreciation shocks, and for exchange rate changes that are more persistent. We also find evidence of asymmetry, with passthrough eight times stronger during depreciations than appreciations. Additional findings suggest that improved monetary policy effectiveness is an important driver of our observed declining estimates of exchange rate passthrough over time, supporting the long-standing view that strengthening monetary policy frameworks and credibility helps mitigate the impact of depreciations on inflation.
Author: Anh D. M. Nguyen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513583018 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.
Author: Jongrim Ha Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464813760 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 513
Book Description
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author: Mr. Patrick Honohan Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451895143 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
In post-independence sub-Saharan Africa, institutional arrangements for monetary policy have taken a variety of forms, although the historical evolution of many African financial systems has been similar. This paper identifies five different regimes and examines how they evolved over time. It focuses on how the alternative institutional arrangements have influenced the performance of monetary policy under fiscal pressure, and concludes that, although the trend appears to be toward more flexible regimes, the transition to greater flexibility can exacerbate problems of credibility and of macroeconomic management.
Author: Mr.Elie Canetti
Author: Elie Canetti
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Ajay Chhibber
Author: Joshua Eli Greene
Author: Laurent Kemoe
Author: Barbara Mbire Barungi
Author: Anh D. M. Nguyen
Author: Jongrim Ha
Author: Mr. Patrick Honohan