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Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262331713 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 350
Book Description
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262331713 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 350
Book Description
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author: Moshe Dror Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9780792374633 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 810
Book Description
Writing in honour of Sid Yakowitz, 50 internationally known scholars have collectively contributed 30 papers on modelling uncertainty to this volume. These include papers with a theoretical emphasis and others that focus on applications.
Author: International Computer Science Institute Publisher: ISBN: Category : Artificial intelligence Languages : en Pages : 25
Book Description
Abstract: "Building planning systems that operate in real domains requires coping with both uncertainty and time pressure. This paper describes a model of reaction plans, which are generated using a formalization of actions and of state descriptions in probabilistic logic, as a basis for anytime planning under uncertainty. The model has the following main features. At the action level, we handle incomplete and ambiguous domain information, and reason about alternative action effects whose probabilities are given. On this basis, we generate reaction plans that specify different courses of action, reflecting the domain uncertainty and alternative action effects; if generation time was insufficient, these plans may be left unfinished, but they can be reused, incrementally improved, and finished later. At the planning level, we develop a framework for measuring the quality of plans that takes domain uncertainty and probabilistic information into account using Markov chain theory; based on this framework, one can design anytime algorithms focusing on those parts of an unfinished plan first, whose completion promises the most 'gain.' Finally, the plan quality can be updated during execution, according to additional information acquired, and can therefore be used for on-line planning."
Author: Horand I Gassmann Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9814407526 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 549
Book Description
This book shows the breadth and depth of stochastic programming applications. All the papers presented here involve optimization over the scenarios that represent possible future outcomes of the uncertainty problems. The applications, which were presented at the 12th International Conference on Stochastic Programming held in Halifax, Nova Scotia in August 2010, span the rich field of uses of these models. The finance papers discuss such diverse problems as longevity risk management of individual investors, personal financial planning, intertemporal surplus management, asset management with benchmarks, dynamic portfolio management, fixed income immunization and racetrack betting. The production and logistics papers discuss natural gas infrastructure design, farming Atlantic salmon, prevention of nuclear smuggling and sawmill planning. The energy papers involve electricity production planning, hydroelectric reservoir operations and power generation planning for liquid natural gas plants. Finally, two telecommunication papers discuss mobile network design and frequency assignment problems./a
Author: Robert J. Lempert Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 0833091670 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 109
Book Description
Defense planning faces significant uncertainties. This report applies robust decision making (RDM) to the munitions mix challenge, to demonstrate how RDM could help defense planners make plans more robust to a wide range of hard-to-predict futures.
Author: A. Martelli Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan ISBN: 9781349451197 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 315
Book Description
Models of Scenario Building and Planning offers a unique and innovative exploration of the scenario approach. The book focuses on the analysis of the competitors' behavior; the analysis of risk and uncertainty; and the link between scenarios and strategies.
Author: Robert Henry Klein Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 119
Book Description
Autonomous agents are increasingly being called upon to perform challenging tasks in complex settings with little information about underlying environment dynamics. To successfully complete such tasks the agent must learn from its interactions with the environment. Many existing techniques make assumptions about problem structure to remain tractable, such as limiting the class of possible models or specifying a fixed model expressive power. Complicating matters, there are many scenarios where the environment exhibits multiple underlying sets of dynamics; in these cases, most existing approaches assume the number of underlying models is known a priori, or ignore the possibility of multiple models altogether. Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) methods provide the flexibility to solve both of these problems, but have high inference complexity that has limited their adoption. This thesis provides several methods to tractably plan under uncertainty using BNPs. The first is Simultaneous Clustering on Representation Expansion (SCORE) for learning Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that exhibit an underlying multiple-model structure. SCORE addresses the co-dependence between observation clustering and model expansion. The second contribution provides a realtime, non-myopic, risk-aware planning solution for use in camera surveillance scenarios where the number of underlying target behaviors and their parameterization are unknown. A BNP model is used to capture target behaviors, and a solution that reduces uncertainty only as needed to perform a mission is presented for allocating cameras. The final contribution is a reinforcement learning (RL) framework RLPy, a software package to promote collaboration and speed innovation in the RL community. RLPy provides a library of learning agents, function approximators, and problem domains for performing RL experiments. RLPy also provides a suite of tools that help automate tasks throughout the experiment pipeline, from initial prototyping through hyperparameter optimization, parallelization of large-scale experiments, and final publication-ready plotting.
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Author: Gerd Infanger
Author: Peter L. Hammer
Author: Hercules Vladimirou
Author: Moshe Dror
Author: International Computer Science Institute
Author: Horand I Gassmann
Author: Robert J. Lempert
Author: A. Martelli
Author: Robert Henry Klein