Author: John P. CaskeyPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 164
Book Description
Modelling the Formation of Price Expectations
Author: John P. CaskeyPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 164
Book Description
Modelling the Formation of Expectations
Author: John W. GalbraithPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 410
Book Description
New Tests of Expectation Formation with Applications to Asset Pricing Models
Author: Pei KuangPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
We develop new tests for expectation formation in financial and macroeconomic models under various informational assumptions. Survey data suggests stock price forecasts are not anchored by consumption forecasts and rejects this aspect of the formation of stock price expectations in a wide range of asset pricing models. The evidence casts some doubt on the modeling of expectation formation in the asset pricing models which assume agents possess the knowledge of the equilibrium pricing function as in Rational Expectations and Bayesian Rational Expectations models. Relaxing this knowledge appears necessary for models to reconcile the survey evidence and potential resolutions are discussed.
On the Formation of Price Expectations
Author: Heinz KönigInflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. SinclairPublisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Expectations in Consumer Decision Making
Author: Lisa Dianne OrdóñezThe Formation and Economic Effects of Price Expectations
Author: Douglas Kenneth PearcePublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Prices
Languages : en
Pages : 390
Book Description
Consumer Expectations
Author: Richard Thomas CurtinPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107004691
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 365
Book Description
Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.
Rational Expectations and Commodity Price Forecasts
Author: Boum-Jong ChoePublisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 27
Book Description
Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics
Author: George W. EvansPublisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400824265
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 440
Book Description
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.