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Author: H. Lieth Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 364251863X Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 443
Book Description
The pulse of life with the seasons is a classic theme of biology, equally cap turing every man's curiosity about early and late milestones of every year's cycle and the critical physiologist's inquiry into life's subtle signals and responses. Natural historians of ancient and renaissance time as well as today have charted the commonsense facts behind inspired traditions of poetry and practical rules for growing food and fiber. This volume brings together several ways of organizing the basic principles of phenology. These find order in the otherwise overwhelming mass of detail that captures our fleeting attention, like the daily newspaper, and then tends to fade into the overstuffed archives of history. Is this order so obvious and understandable that there is no longer any scien tific challenge to "phenology" as a tradition? Or does apparent simplicity mask a complex and ultimately baffling obstacle to the understanding of seasonality in even those few indicator plants and animals we know best, not to men tion the less known species or races making up the rest of each major land scape unit or ecosystem? Denying both these hasty opinions, we think that this volume well illustrates a range of questions and answers-from soundly established (but not trivial) doctrine to exciting inquiry about how ecosystems are organized.
Author: H. Lieth Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 364251863X Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 443
Book Description
The pulse of life with the seasons is a classic theme of biology, equally cap turing every man's curiosity about early and late milestones of every year's cycle and the critical physiologist's inquiry into life's subtle signals and responses. Natural historians of ancient and renaissance time as well as today have charted the commonsense facts behind inspired traditions of poetry and practical rules for growing food and fiber. This volume brings together several ways of organizing the basic principles of phenology. These find order in the otherwise overwhelming mass of detail that captures our fleeting attention, like the daily newspaper, and then tends to fade into the overstuffed archives of history. Is this order so obvious and understandable that there is no longer any scien tific challenge to "phenology" as a tradition? Or does apparent simplicity mask a complex and ultimately baffling obstacle to the understanding of seasonality in even those few indicator plants and animals we know best, not to men tion the less known species or races making up the rest of each major land scape unit or ecosystem? Denying both these hasty opinions, we think that this volume well illustrates a range of questions and answers-from soundly established (but not trivial) doctrine to exciting inquiry about how ecosystems are organized.
Author: William R. Bell Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1439846588 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 544
Book Description
Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time s
Author: Svend Hylleberg Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 494
Book Description
This volume brings together leading papers on the existing standard economic theory of seasonality as well as papers which apply newer statistical tools to the modelling of seasonal phenomena. It includes a discussion of the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment, as well as an assessment ofrecent developments in the field.
Author: Rob J Hyndman Publisher: OTexts ISBN: 0987507117 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 380
Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author: Svend Hylleberg Publisher: Academic Press ISBN: 1483277747 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 284
Book Description
Seasonality in Regression presents the problems of seasonality in economic regression models. This book discusses the procedures that may have application in practical econometric work. Organized into eight chapters, this book begins with an overview of the tremendous increase in the computational capabilities made by the development of the electronic computer that has profound implications for the way seasonality is handled by economists. This text then examines some seasonal models and their characteristics. Other chapters consider the most frequently applied evaluation criteria and appraise the values in the applications. This book discusses as well the frequency domain estimators and provides insight into problems of estimating the disturbance–covariance matrix through the use of the disturbance spectrum. The final chapter deals with the main objective of the treatment of personality to formulate and estimate econometric models. This book is a valuable resource for economists and econometricians who have knowledge of econometrics at an advanced undergraduate or graduate level.
Author: Eric Ghysels Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521565882 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 258
Book Description
Eric Ghysels and Denise R. Osborn provide a thorough and timely review of the recent developments in the econometric analysis of seasonal economic time series, summarizing a decade of theoretical advances in the area. The authors discuss the asymptotic distribution theory for linear nonstationary seasonal stochastic processes. They also cover the latest contributions to the theory and practice of seasonal adjustment, together with its implications for estimation and hypothesis testing. Moreover, a comprehensive analysis of periodic models is provided, including stationary and nonstationary cases. The book concludes with a discussion of some nonlinear seasonal and periodic models. The treatment is designed for an audience of researchers and advanced graduate students.
Author: Adrian G. Barnett Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642107486 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 174
Book Description
Seasonal patterns have been found in a remarkable range of health conditions, including birth defects, respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease. Accurately estimating the size and timing of seasonal peaks in disease incidence is an aid to understanding the causes and possibly to developing interventions. With global warming increasing the intensity of seasonal weather patterns around the world, a review of the methods for estimating seasonal effects on health is timely. This is the first book on statistical methods for seasonal data written for a health audience. It describes methods for a range of outcomes (including continuous, count and binomial data) and demonstrates appropriate techniques for summarising and modelling these data. It has a practical focus and uses interesting examples to motivate and illustrate the methods. The statistical procedures and example data sets are available in an R package called ‘season’.
Author: Stephen Devereux Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1136494405 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 341
Book Description
Seasonality is a severe constraint to sustainable rural livelihoods and a driver of poverty and hunger, particularly in the tropics. Many poor people in developing countries are ill equipped to cope with seasonal variations which can lead to drought or flood and consequences for agriculture, employment, food supply and the spread of disease. The subject has assumed increasing importance as climate change and other forms of development disrupt established seasonal patterns and variations. This book is the first systematic study of seasonality for over twenty years, and it aims to revive academic interest and policy awareness of this crucial but neglected issue. Thematic chapters explore recent shifts with profound implications for seasonality, including climate change, HIV/AIDS, and social protection. Case study chapters explore seasonal dimensions of livelihoods in Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi), Asia (Bangladesh, China, India), and Latin America (Peru). Others assess policy responses to adverse seasonality, for example through irrigation, migration and seasonally-sensitive education. The book also includes innovative tools for monitoring seasonality, which should enable more appropriate responses.
Author: Andrew C. Harvey Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1107717140 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 578
Book Description
In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.
Author: Tom Baum Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1136367071 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 202
Book Description
Seasonal variation in demand is a reality for most tourism destinations. This work provides a balanced overview of the evidence and issues relating to tourism seasonality using European, North American and Pacific Rim cases and research evidence.
Author: H. Lieth
Author: H. Lieth
Author: William R. Bell
Author: Svend Hylleberg
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Author: Svend Hylleberg
Author: Eric Ghysels
Author: Adrian G. Barnett
Author: Stephen Devereux
Author: Andrew C. Harvey
Author: Tom Baum