Modeling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Variability in the North Fork of Elk Creek Experimental Watershed, West-Central Montana PDF Download
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Author: Katie Marie Jorgensen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Watersheds Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
This study hypothesizes the effects of global climate change on the hydrologic regime of West-Central Montana, focusing on the North Fork of Elk Creek, a 6.6 km2 (2.6 mi.2) Experimental Watershed. This is important to understand in snowmelt-dominated watersheds, as it is already well documented by current trends and future climate projections that the natural hydrologic regime is experiencing alterations. There have been shifts in the 20th century of the timing of snowmelt trending towards an earlier spring peak flows and declines in the overall snow water equivalent (Regonda et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Hamlet et al., 2005). The goals for this study are to analyze for significant changes in the timing of important hydrologic events, and determine how discharge throughout the year will be altered in the Elk Creek Experimental Watershed (ECEW). To address these issues, a semi-spatial hydrologic model is employed, and run using current meteorological data and under downscaled climate-change scenarios conditions, under three relevant time periods. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is deterministic and conceptual and is used to generate streamflow in snowmelt dominated basins by the degree-day method (Martinec, 1985). Data is gathered from two SNOTEL sites located within the watershed and streamflow collected directly on the North Fork of Elk Creek. The specific metrics that will be statistically analyzed are mean summer and winter flows, and trends in peak flow and center of mass date timing (Wenger et al., 2009; Regonda et al., 2005). These results can be useful for management purposes because changes in the way water is released from the mountains affects water storage, flooding, and overall watershed resilience such that current practices may need to be accordingly adjusted.
Author: Katie Marie Jorgensen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Watersheds Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
This study hypothesizes the effects of global climate change on the hydrologic regime of West-Central Montana, focusing on the North Fork of Elk Creek, a 6.6 km2 (2.6 mi.2) Experimental Watershed. This is important to understand in snowmelt-dominated watersheds, as it is already well documented by current trends and future climate projections that the natural hydrologic regime is experiencing alterations. There have been shifts in the 20th century of the timing of snowmelt trending towards an earlier spring peak flows and declines in the overall snow water equivalent (Regonda et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Hamlet et al., 2005). The goals for this study are to analyze for significant changes in the timing of important hydrologic events, and determine how discharge throughout the year will be altered in the Elk Creek Experimental Watershed (ECEW). To address these issues, a semi-spatial hydrologic model is employed, and run using current meteorological data and under downscaled climate-change scenarios conditions, under three relevant time periods. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is deterministic and conceptual and is used to generate streamflow in snowmelt dominated basins by the degree-day method (Martinec, 1985). Data is gathered from two SNOTEL sites located within the watershed and streamflow collected directly on the North Fork of Elk Creek. The specific metrics that will be statistically analyzed are mean summer and winter flows, and trends in peak flow and center of mass date timing (Wenger et al., 2009; Regonda et al., 2005). These results can be useful for management purposes because changes in the way water is released from the mountains affects water storage, flooding, and overall watershed resilience such that current practices may need to be accordingly adjusted.
Author: Ryan J. MacDonald Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Climate change poses significant threats to mountain ecosystems in North America (Barnett et al., 2005) and will subsequently impact water supply for human and ecosystem use. To assess these threats, we must have an understanding of the local variability in hydrometeorological conditions over the mountains. This thesis describes the continued development and application of a fine scale spatial hydrometeorological model, GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input). The GENESYS model successfully simulated daily snowpack values for a 10 year trial period and annual runoff volumes for a thirty year period. Based on the results of these simulations the model was applied to estimate potential changes in snowpack over the St. Mary River watershed, Montana. GCM derived future climate scenarios were applied, representing a range of emissions controls and applied to perturb the 1961-90 climate record using the "delta" downscaling technique. The effects of these changes in climate were assessed for thirty year time slices centered on 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The GENESYS simulations of future climate showed that mountain snowpack was highly vulnerable to changes in temperature and to a lesser degree precipitation. A seasonal shift to an earlier onset of spring melt and an increase in the ratio of rain to snow occurred under all climate change scenarios. Results of mean and maximum snowpack were more variable and appeared to be highly dependent on scenario selection. The results demonstrated that although annual volume of available water from snowpack may increase, the seasonal distribution of available water may be significantly altered.
Author: Kyra Freeman Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Forecast modeling indicates that the North Fork watershed will transition from a snow- to rain-dominated basin into the 21st century as a result of increasing air temperatures. More precipitation in the winter will fall as rain rather than snow, resulting in up to a 43% increase in streamflow and a 56% decline in basin-wide snowpack. The reduced snowpack will melt out earlier and cause a decrease in spring and summer streamflow. Simulations of stream temperature indicate rising temperatures in every stream segment in the basin by the end of the 21st century as a result of higher air temperatures, declining snowpack, and lower summer streamflow. Monthly average stream temperatures could increase by up to 7.4°C. In addition, the temperature thresholds for every life cycle of endangered salmon species are increasingly exceeded through time, putting at risk already endangered salmon species. By the end of the 21st century, the main stem may experience up to a 10-fold increase in number of days per year exceeding salmon temperature thresholds. Reach-scale predictions of stream temperature trends through the basin offer water resource managers a tool for focusing riparian and groundwater restoration efforts.
Author: Nazmus Shams Sazib Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Understanding the implications of climate change on streamflow regime is complex as changes in climate vary over space and time. However, a better understanding of the impact of climate change is required for identifying how stream ecosystems vulnerable to these changes, and ultimately to guide the development of robust strategies for reducing risk in the face of changing climatic conditions. Here I used physically based hydrologic modeling to improve understanding of how climate change may impact streamflow regimes and advance some of the cyberinfrastructure and GIS methodologies that support physically based hydrologic modeling by: (1) using a physically based model to examine the potential effects of climate change on ecologically relevant aspects of streamflow regime, (2) developing data services in support of input data preparation for physically based distributed hydrologic models, and (3) enhancing terrain analysis algorithms to support rapid watershed delineation over large area. TOPNET, a physically based hydrologic model was applied over eight watersheds across the U.S to assess the sensitivity and changes of the streamflow regime due to climate change. Distributed hydrologic models require diverse geospatial and time series inputs, the acquisition and preparation of which are labor intensive and difficult to reproduce. I developed web services to automate the input data preparation steps for a physically based distributed hydrological model to enable water scientist to spend less time processing input data. This input includes terrain analysis and watershed delineation over a large area. However, limitations of current terrain analysis tools are (1) some support only a limited set of specific raster and vector data formats, and (2) all that we know of require data to be in a projected coordinate system. I enhanced terrain analysis algorithms to extend their generality and support rapid, web-based watershed delineation services. Climate change studies help to improve the scientific foundation for conducting climate change impacts assessments, thus building the capacity of the water management community to understand and respond to climate change. Web-based data services and enhancements to terrain analysis algorithms to support rapid watershed delineation will impact a diverse community of researchers involved terrain analysis, hydrologic and environmental modeling.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Hydrologic pathways and processes vary greatly from the coastal plain to the mountainous upland across the southeastern United States due to large physiographic and climatic gradients. The coastal plain is generally a groundwater dominated system with a shallow water table, while the mountainous upland is hillslope controlled system. It was hypothesized that these two different regions have different hydrologic responses to forest management and climate change due to different conditions: topography, climate, soil, and vegetation. The hydrologic impacts of climate change and forest management practices are complex and nonlinear, and a model is an advanced tool for addressing such tasks. The objectives of this study were: 1) to evaluate the applicability of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic modeling system - MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 - in the southeastern United States; and 2) to use the MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 modeling system to examine the hydrologic processes and responses to forest management practices and climate change on the coastal plain and the mountainous upland in the southeastern United States. Four experimental watersheds, three wetlands on the coastal plain and one Appalachian mountainous upland, were selected. The model was first evaluated to determine if it could sufficiently describe the hydrological processes in these diverse watersheds in two contrasting regions. Next, the model was applied to simulate the hydrologic impacts of forest management and climate change at the four study sites, four simulation scenarios per site. These included the base line, clearcut, 2 & deg;C temperature increase, and 10% precipitation decrease scenarios. Water table level and streamflow amount were two responses used to evaluate the forest management and climate change impacts. This study indicated that forest management and climate change would have potential impacts on the wetland water table, especially during dry periods. The absolute magnitudes of streamflow reduction w.
Author: Susan E. Dickerson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The Nooksack River has its headwaters in the North Cascade Mountains and drains an approximately 2300 km2 watershed in northwestern Washington State. The timing and magnitude of streamflow in a high relief, snow-dominated drainage basin such as the Nooksack River basin is strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of future climate made by general circulation models (GCMs) predict increases in temperature and variable changes to precipitation in western Washington, which will affect streamflow, snowpack, and glaciers in the Nooksack River basin. Anticipating the response of the river to climate change is crucial for water resources planning because municipalities, tribes, and industry depend on the river for water use and for fish habitat. I combined modeled climate forecasts and the Distributed-Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to simulate future changes to timing and magnitude of streamflow in the higher elevations of the Nooksack River, east of the confluence near Deming, Washington. The DHSVM is a physically based, spatially distributed hydrology model that simulates a water and energy balance at the pixel scale of a digital elevation model. I used recent meteorological and landcover data to calibrate and validate the DHSVM. Coarse-resolution GCM forecasts were downscaled to the Nooksack basin following the methods of previous regional studies (e.g., Palmer, 2007) for use as local-scale meteorological input to the calibrated DHSVM. Simulations of future streamflow and snowpack in the Nooksack River basin predict a range of magnitudes, which reflects the variable predictions of the climate change forecasts and local natural variability. Simulation results forecast increased winter flows, decreased summer flows, decreased snowpack, and a shift in timing of the spring melt peak and maximum snow water equivalent. Modeling results for future peak flow events indicate an increase in both the frequency and magnitudes of floods, but uncertainties are high for modeling the absolute magnitudes of peak flows. These results are consistent with previous regional studies which document that temperature-related effects on precipitation and melting are driving changes to snow-melt dominated basins (e.g., Hamlet et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009).
Author: Katie Marie Jorgensen
Author: Katie Marie Jorgensen
Author: Anne E Jeton
Author: Katherine J. Chase
Author: Daniel Barandiaran
Author: Ryan J. MacDonald
Author: Kyra Freeman
Author: Nazmus Shams Sazib
Author: 
Author: Susan E. Dickerson
Author: Ching-pin Tung