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Author: Stephanie A. Johnson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Cyclones Languages : en Pages : 87
Book Description
We have analyzed the modulation of TC formations in the western North Pacific (WNP) during July-October by El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). This analysis was conducted from the perspective of several large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) that strongly influence tropical cyclone (TC) formation: sea surface temperature (SST), low level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and upper level divergence. We examined the variations in each LSEF associated with EN, LN, and MJO. We used composite LSEFs for EN, LN, and each of the eight MJO phases to force the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) statistical model for calculating TC formation probabilities. We then compared the resulting probabilities to actual formations to determine how accurately the model represented ENLN and MJO related variations in TC formations. The model based probabilities provide a realistic quantitative representation of how ENLN and MJO make TC formation more and less likely in the WNP. Our results should be useful in improving the education, training, and environmental situational awareness of TC forecasters. Our results also indicate that the NPS model has the potential to improve operational forecasting of TC formations in the WNP, if forced by skillful forecasts of the LSEFs.
Author: Stephanie A. Johnson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Cyclones Languages : en Pages : 87
Book Description
We have analyzed the modulation of TC formations in the western North Pacific (WNP) during July-October by El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). This analysis was conducted from the perspective of several large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) that strongly influence tropical cyclone (TC) formation: sea surface temperature (SST), low level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and upper level divergence. We examined the variations in each LSEF associated with EN, LN, and MJO. We used composite LSEFs for EN, LN, and each of the eight MJO phases to force the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) statistical model for calculating TC formation probabilities. We then compared the resulting probabilities to actual formations to determine how accurately the model represented ENLN and MJO related variations in TC formations. The model based probabilities provide a realistic quantitative representation of how ENLN and MJO make TC formation more and less likely in the WNP. Our results should be useful in improving the education, training, and environmental situational awareness of TC forecasters. Our results also indicate that the NPS model has the potential to improve operational forecasting of TC formations in the WNP, if forced by skillful forecasts of the LSEFs.
Author: Pao-Shin Chu Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1108754392 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 321
Book Description
This book presents a comprehensive summary of research on tropical cyclone variability at various time scales, from intraseasonal and interannual to interdecadal and centennial. It covers the fundamental theory, statistics and numerical modelling techniques used when considering climate variability in relation to tropical cyclone activity. Major climate oscillations including the Madden-Julian, El Niño, Atlantic Meridional Mode, and Pacific Decadal oscillations are covered, and their impacts on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are discussed. Hurricane landfalls in the United States, Caribbean and East Asia are also considered. Climate models and numerical simulations are used to show how prediction models of tropical cyclones are developed, while looking to the future, particular attention is paid to predicting how tropical cyclones will change in response to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. This book ideal for researchers and practitioners in atmospheric science, climatology, oceanography and civil and environmental engineering.
Author: Zhong Zhong Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9813232080 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 265
Book Description
This book studies the pitfalls of regional climate models in simulating track and intensity of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific for the East Asian summer monsoon climate.A number of sensitivity experiments related to tropical cyclone simulation with different model configurations and model physical schemes, including model resolution, model lateral boundary condition, effect of sea surface temperature, cumulus parameterization scheme and model microphysics scheme, as well as the features and the failure of tropical cyclone simulation in regional climate models were carefully analyzed with model output with high temporal resolution, to investigate shortcomings of the models, so as to come up with better models to simulate and study tropical cyclone track and intensity.The book is suitable for graduate students in meteorology with focuses in the tropical cyclone simulation, as well as professionals devoted to model development and study of tropical cyclone activities.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The spatial-temporal variability of tropical cyclone tracks and their possible association with tropical cyclone landfall frequency along the United States East Coast and China East Coast are studied using Principle Component Analysis of tropical cyclone Track Density Function (TDF). Results show that North Atlantic (NA) hurricane TDF is strongly modulated by El Niño-South Oscillation, the tropical Atlantic SST dipole Mode (DM), North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. Dominant Modes of Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon TDF demonstrate strong correlation with spring and winter snow cover (SC) over the Qinghai and Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Results provide a foundation for the construction of statistical models, which project the annual number of tropical cyclone landfall along the East Coast of the United States and the coast of China. Analysis for 1990 and 2004 NA hurricane seasons revealed that the substantial variability of tropical Atlantic SST DM is a dominate factor affecting the hurricane track patterns. Study for 1978 and 2001 typhoon cases in the WNP demonstrated that the QTP SC was responsible for the differentiation in the number of landfall typhoon events in the WNP. A schematic diagram was proposed to illustrate the linkage between the DM and the NA hurricane track patterns. Accumulated gain or deficit in the surface radiation associated with the QTP SC imposes a long memory in the East Asian climate system. Variations in heat budget change the large-scale zonal circulation and further modulate the seasonal position and strength of East Asian subtropical high. A possible physical link to connect the QTP snow cover and the WNP typhoon track patterns was therefore proposed.
Author: Asuka Suzuki-Parker Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642250297 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 89
Book Description
The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
Author: 張健緯 Publisher: Open Dissertation Press ISBN: 9781374748835 Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This dissertation, "Understanding and Forecasting Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific Ocean" by 張健緯, Kin-wai, Cheung, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3121510 Subjects: Cyclones - Tropics - Forecasting
Author: Craig E. Jakus Publisher: ISBN: Category : Automatic meteorological stations Languages : en Pages : 164
Book Description
The short term teleconnections arising from an individual tropical cyclone in tne western Pacific (typhoon Seth, October 1994) were examined using an operational global data assimilation system and numerical weather prediction model. During the data assimilation, the model's initial conditions were modified using a tropical cyclone bogusing procedure that either maintained or eliminated the individual storm. These different initial conditions were used in six extended-range forecasts of about 3.5 weeks duration. Three of these forecasts simulated the atmosphere with tne tropical cyclone and three without the storm. The ensemble average differences between the forecasts with the storm and those without it were used to infer the global teleconnection response to the tropical cyclone. This response was dominated by a strong and persistent Rossby wave train that extended from east Asia across the North Pacific into North America. This wave train was initiated when an anticyclonic circulation formed near Japan as the tropical cyclone approached the east Asian jet. The anticyclone formation was primarily the result of two factors: (1) vortex stretching; and (2) absolute vorticity advection as divergent outflow from the tropical cyclone crossed the large absolute vorticity gradient of the east Asian jet. The wave response was quasi-stationary. However, the basic wave train (i.e., the teleconnection pattern) developed within a week due to a relatively rapid eastward propagation of wave energy across the North Pacific and North America. In regions of strong jet flow, this propagation tended to parallel the flow while in regions of weaker flow, the propagation had stronger poleward or equatorward components. The wave train intensified well after the tropical cyclone and the initial wave formation process had dissipated.
Author: Stephanie A. Johnson
Author: Stephanie A. Johnson
Author: Pao-Shin Chu
Author: Zhong Zhong
Author: Xu Yiming
Author: 
Author: Asuka Suzuki-Parker
Author: 張健緯
Author: Craig E. Jakus
Author: 
Author: Eric Hendricks