Modeling the Effects of Forecasted Climate Change and Glacier Recession on Late Summer Streamflow in the Upper Nooksack River Basin PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Modeling the Effects of Forecasted Climate Change and Glacier Recession on Late Summer Streamflow in the Upper Nooksack River Basin PDF full book. Access full book title Modeling the Effects of Forecasted Climate Change and Glacier Recession on Late Summer Streamflow in the Upper Nooksack River Basin by Ryan D. Murphy. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Ryan D. Murphy Publisher: ISBN: Category : Glaciers Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Like many watersheds in the North Cascades range of Washington State, USA, streamflow in the Nooksack River is strongly influenced by precipitation and snowmelt in the spring and glacial ice melt in the warmer summer months. With a maritime climate and high relief containing approximately 34km2 of glacial ice, the streamflow response in the Nooksack River basin is sensitive to increases in temperature. Climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for the 21st Century indicate increases in temperature with variable changes to precipitation. The watershed is a valuable freshwater resource for regional municipalities, industry, and agriculture, and provides critical habitat for endangered salmon species. Thus, understanding the impacts of forecasted climate change is critical for water resources planning purposes. I apply publically available statistically derived 1/16 degree gridded surface climate data along with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with newly developed coupled dynamic glacier model to simulate hydrologic and glacial processes through the end of the 21st Century. Simulation results project median winter streamflows to more than double by 2075 due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, and median summer flows to decrease by more than half with a general shift in peak snowmelt derived spring flows toward earlier in the spring. Glaciers are projected to retreat significantly with smaller glaciers disappearing entirely. Ice melt contribution to streamflow is likely to play an important role in sustaining summer baseflows in the Nooksack River. Glacier melt derived streamflow is projected to increase throughout the first half of the 21st century and decrease in the latter half after glacier ice volume decreases substantially.
Author: Ryan D. Murphy Publisher: ISBN: Category : Glaciers Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Like many watersheds in the North Cascades range of Washington State, USA, streamflow in the Nooksack River is strongly influenced by precipitation and snowmelt in the spring and glacial ice melt in the warmer summer months. With a maritime climate and high relief containing approximately 34km2 of glacial ice, the streamflow response in the Nooksack River basin is sensitive to increases in temperature. Climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for the 21st Century indicate increases in temperature with variable changes to precipitation. The watershed is a valuable freshwater resource for regional municipalities, industry, and agriculture, and provides critical habitat for endangered salmon species. Thus, understanding the impacts of forecasted climate change is critical for water resources planning purposes. I apply publically available statistically derived 1/16 degree gridded surface climate data along with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with newly developed coupled dynamic glacier model to simulate hydrologic and glacial processes through the end of the 21st Century. Simulation results project median winter streamflows to more than double by 2075 due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, and median summer flows to decrease by more than half with a general shift in peak snowmelt derived spring flows toward earlier in the spring. Glaciers are projected to retreat significantly with smaller glaciers disappearing entirely. Ice melt contribution to streamflow is likely to play an important role in sustaining summer baseflows in the Nooksack River. Glacier melt derived streamflow is projected to increase throughout the first half of the 21st century and decrease in the latter half after glacier ice volume decreases substantially.
Author: Susan E. Dickerson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The Nooksack River has its headwaters in the North Cascade Mountains and drains an approximately 2300 km2 watershed in northwestern Washington State. The timing and magnitude of streamflow in a high relief, snow-dominated drainage basin such as the Nooksack River basin is strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of future climate made by general circulation models (GCMs) predict increases in temperature and variable changes to precipitation in western Washington, which will affect streamflow, snowpack, and glaciers in the Nooksack River basin. Anticipating the response of the river to climate change is crucial for water resources planning because municipalities, tribes, and industry depend on the river for water use and for fish habitat. I combined modeled climate forecasts and the Distributed-Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to simulate future changes to timing and magnitude of streamflow in the higher elevations of the Nooksack River, east of the confluence near Deming, Washington. The DHSVM is a physically based, spatially distributed hydrology model that simulates a water and energy balance at the pixel scale of a digital elevation model. I used recent meteorological and landcover data to calibrate and validate the DHSVM. Coarse-resolution GCM forecasts were downscaled to the Nooksack basin following the methods of previous regional studies (e.g., Palmer, 2007) for use as local-scale meteorological input to the calibrated DHSVM. Simulations of future streamflow and snowpack in the Nooksack River basin predict a range of magnitudes, which reflects the variable predictions of the climate change forecasts and local natural variability. Simulation results forecast increased winter flows, decreased summer flows, decreased snowpack, and a shift in timing of the spring melt peak and maximum snow water equivalent. Modeling results for future peak flow events indicate an increase in both the frequency and magnitudes of floods, but uncertainties are high for modeling the absolute magnitudes of peak flows. These results are consistent with previous regional studies which document that temperature-related effects on precipitation and melting are driving changes to snow-melt dominated basins (e.g., Hamlet et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009).
Author: Stephanie E. Truitt Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 110
Book Description
Stream temperatures in mountain streams in the western Cascade Mountains are heavily influenced by factors such as discharge, air temperature, and as in the case of the Nooksack River Basin in northwest Washington State; snow and glacial melt. The Nooksack basin is sensitive to warming climates due to the regions moderate Pacific maritime climate. Previous modeling studies in the upper Nooksack basins indicate a reduction in snowpack and spring runoff, and a recession of glaciers into the 21st century due to global climate change. How stream temperatures will respond to these changes is unknown. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) coupled with a glacier dynamics model to simulate hydrology and the River Basin Model (RBM) to model stream temperature from present to the year 2090 in the North, Middle, and South forks of the Nooksack River basin. We simulate forecasted climate change effects on hydrology and stream temperature using gridded daily statically downscaled data from 10 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) with two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulation results project a trending increase in stream temperature into the 21st century in all three forks of the Nooksack. There is a strong correlation between rising stream temperatures and warming air temperatures, decreasing stream discharge; and snow and glacial meltwater. We find that the highest stream temperatures and the greatest monthly mean 7-day average of the daily maximum stream temperature (7-DADMax) values are predicted in the lower relief, unglaciated South Fork basin. For the 30 years surrounding the 2075 time period, the mouth of the South Fork is forecasted to have a mean of 115 days above the 16 °C 7-day average of the daily maximum stream temperature threshold. Streams in the Middle and North fork basins with higher elevations that sustain more snow and glacier ice are slower to respond to warming climates due to meltwater contributions, especially in the next 50 years. Towards the end of this century, when snowpack and glacial volume is greatly decreased, the buffering effect of meltwater declines, and the North and Middle forks experience larger increases in mean daily stream temperature. For the 30 years surrounding the 2075 time period, the mouths of the Middle and North forks are forecasted to have means of 35 and 23 days, respectively, above the 16 °C 7-DADMax threshold.
Author: Evan A. Paul Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The Nooksack River in northwest Washington State provides freshwater for agriculture, municipal, and industrial use and serves as a vital habitat for endangered salmon, a resource that is of cultural and economic importance to the Nooksack Indian Tribe and the surrounding region. Due to the complex topography in the basin and the mild maritime climate of the Puget Sound region, streamflow in the Nooksack River is highly sensitive to fluctuations in air temperature. Global climate models (GCMs) project an increase in air temperatures for the Puget Sound region, and previous modeling within the Nooksack basin projects a reduction in snowpack extent through the 21st century and an increase in winter streamflow magnitude. As more landscape becomes exposed to rain rather than snow and heavy winter precipitation events intensify, peak flows and sediment delivery to streams will likely increase due to rapid runoff, resulting in salmon habitat degradation and increased flood risk. Thus, anticipating the effect of climate change on peak flows is crucial for salmon habitat restoration efforts and flood mitigation planning. To quantify the timing and magnitude of future peak flows, I use a calibrated Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and meteorological forcings from an ensemble of high-emission GCMs dynamically-downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Due to the variability of climate scenarios depicted by GCMs, a range of streamflow and snowpack magnitude changes in the Nooksack River basin are projected by the hydrology simulations. By the end of the 21st century, results indicate a decrease in annual peak snow-water equivalent (-72% to -82%), a shift in the timing of peak snow-water equivalent to approximately one month earlier, an increase in winter flows (+31% to +56%), a decrease in summer flows (-37% to -72%), and the disappearance of the snowmelt derived spring peak in the hydrograph as the basin transitions from transient to rain-dominant. These results are consistent with previous modeling in the Nooksack River basin and other regional climate change studies in the Pacific Northwest and Puget Sound region. Due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow and heavy rain events becoming more frequent and intense, future peak flows are projected to increase in magnitude by 34-60% across all flow durations and return periods that were analyzed, with the largest changes occurring in the high relief subbasins. The frequency of high magnitude, flood-inducing peak flows will also increase into the future, lengthening the flood season by approximately three months.
Author: Jeff Phillippe Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 182
Book Description
Glaciers are effective reservoirs because they moderate variations in runoff and supply reliable flow during drought periods. Thus, there needs to be a clear understanding of the influence of glacier runoff at both the basin and catchment scale. The objectives of this study were to quantify the late summer contributions of glacier melt to the Upper Middle Fork Hood River and to simulate potential impacts of climate change on late summer streamflow. The Upper Middle Fork Hood River catchment (50.6 km2) is located on the northeast flanks of Mount Hood Oregon. Discharge measurements and isotope samples were used to calculate glacier meltwater contributions to the entire catchment, which feeds into a major water diversion used for farmland irrigation. Data were collected over the period August 10 - September 7, 2007. This late summer period was selected because there is typically little rain and suspected high glacier melt contributions. Discharge measurements taken at glacier termini, show that just two of the mountains glaciers, Eliot and Coe, contributed 41% of the total surface water in the catchment. The Eliot Glacier contributed 87% of the total flow in the Eliot Creek, while the Coe Glacier supplied 31% of the runoff in Coe Creek. Isotopic analyses, which include the inputs of all other glacier surfaces in the catchment, show a total glacier contribution of 88% from the Eliot Glacier to the Eliot Creek, in excellent agreement with the streamflow measurements. Isotopes also showed an 88% contribution from the Coe Glacier to the Coe Creek, higher than the amount measured from streamflow. This latter discrepancy is likely due to undersampling of streamflow from the Coe Glacier. During the isotope measurement period, overall contributions of both Coe and Eliot Glaciers to the Upper Middle Fork Hood River were 62 - 74% of catchment discharge. A temperature index model was used to simulate projected impacts of glacier recession and warmer temperatures on streamflow. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) was chosen for this task because it has been shown to effectively model runoff in glacierized catchments where there are limited meteorological records. SRM was calibrated using the 2007 discharge records to quantify August - September glacier runoff in the Upper Middle Fork catchment under a variety of glacier and temperature scenarios. SRM simulations indicate that runoff from the catchment glaciers are highly sensitive to changes in glacial area, glacier debris-cover, and air temperature. Model simulations show that glacier recession has a greater effect on runoff than do projected temperature increases. Thus, even without warmer summer temperatures, glacier contributions to streamflow will decrease as long as the glacier continues to lose mass. Applying both current glacier recession rates and a 2°C temperature forcing, the model predicts a decrease of 31% of late summer glacier runoff by 2059, most of which is lost in August. This study suggests that glaciers currently play a significant hydrological role in the headwater catchments of the Hood River Basin at a time when water is needed most, and that these contributions are projected to diminish over time.
Author: Kevin Knapp Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The Nooksack River in Whatcom County, Washington is an essential fresh water resource for industry, agriculture, municipalities and serves as vital fish habitat. Like many mountainous watersheds in the western Cascades, the Nooksack Basin is susceptible to shallow mass wasting and debris flows because of its steep slopes, young glaciated terrain, and storms with high intensity precipitation. Understanding how projected reductions in snowpack and increased winter rainfall will affect mass - wasting susceptibility in the Nooksack basin is important, because sediment produced mass wasting will jeopardize valuable aquatic and fish habitat, increase flooding risk in the Nooksack River, and affect estuarine and coastal dynamics. With a projected 60% decrease in snow pack and increase in the snowline elevation by the 2075 climate normal, there will be an increase in exposed forest roads, harvestable forest areas, and previously mapped landslides, which are all documented to increase sediment delivery to streams. Retreating glaciers will produce at least 2 km 2 of exposed moraines, which have the potential to erode, fail and provide additional sediment to streams, especially during large storm events coinciding with minimum snowpack during the fall and early spring seasons . I applied a static infinite - slope ArcGIS model and a dynamic, probabilistic mass - wasting model integrated into the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to the Nooksack River watershed to determine areas susceptible to mass wasting into the 21 st century. Susceptibility maps produced by the models indicate an increase in regions susceptible to slope failure during the winter months in snow free areas at higher elevations later in the 21 st century. Slope failure susceptibility increased with soil saturation, which is anticipated with higher intense winter rainfall events. Slopes greater than about 30° with thick regolith deposits and lower soil mechanical strength, e.g., sand, loamy sand, sandy loam, silt, moraines, glacial outwash and former landslide deposits were correlated with higher mass - wasting susceptibility. The simpler static ArcGIS infinite - slope model yielded comparable results to the more complex probabilistic method integrated into the DHSVM for identifying areas susceptible to mass wasting.
Author: Katherine Mary Clarke Publisher: ISBN: Category : Salmonidae Languages : en Pages : 132
Book Description
The Stillaguamish River in northwest Washington State is an important regional water resource for local agriculture, industry, and First Nations tribes and a critical habitat for several threatened and endangered salmonid species, including the Chinook salmon. The river is currently subject to a temperature total maximum daily load, so it is important to understand how projected climate change will affect future stream temperatures and thus salmon populations. Snowpack is the main contributor to spring and summer streamflow and helps to mitigate stream temperatures as air temperatures rise through the summer in the South Fork of the Stillaguamish River. I used gridded historical meteorological data to calibrate the physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and River Basin Model and then applied downscaled, gridded projected climate data to predict how a changing climate will influence hydrology and stream temperature in the South Fork basin through the end of the 21st century.
Author: Mauri Pelto Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319226053 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 115
Book Description
This book presents the impact of climate change on Mount Baker glaciers, USA, and the rivers surrounding them. Glaciers are natural reservoirs that yield their resource primarily on warm dry summer days when other sources are at their lowest yield. This natural tempering of drought conditions will be reduced as they retreat. Mount Baker, a volcano in the Cascades of Washington, is currently host to 12 principal glaciers with an area of 36.8 km2. The glaciers yield 125 million cubic meters of water each summer that is a resource for salmon, irrigation and hydropower to the Nooksack River and Baker River watersheds. Recent rapid retreat of all 22 glaciers is altering the runoff from the glaciers, impacting both the discharge and temperature of the Nooksack and Baker River. Over the last 30 years we have spent 270 nights camped on the mountain conducting 10,500 observations of snow depth and melt rate on Mount Baker. This data combined with observations of terminus change, area change and glacier runoff over the same 30 years allow an unusually comprehensive story to be told of the effects of climate change to Mount Baker Glaciers and the rivers that drain them.
Author: Ryan D. Murphy
Author: Ryan D. Murphy
Author: Susan E. Dickerson
Author: Stephanie E. Truitt
Author: Carrie B. Donnell
Author: Evan A. Paul
Author: Jeff Phillippe
Author: Kevin Knapp
Author: Katherine Mary Clarke
Author: Jay William Chennault
Author: Mauri Pelto