Modeling the Effects of Climate Variability on Hydrology and Stream Temperatures in the North Fork of the Stillaguamish River PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Modeling the Effects of Climate Variability on Hydrology and Stream Temperatures in the North Fork of the Stillaguamish River PDF full book. Access full book title Modeling the Effects of Climate Variability on Hydrology and Stream Temperatures in the North Fork of the Stillaguamish River by Kyra Freeman. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Kyra Freeman Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 158
Book Description
Forecast modeling indicates that the North Fork watershed will transition from a snow- to rain-dominated basin into the 21st century as a result of increasing air temperatures. More precipitation in the winter will fall as rain rather than snow, resulting in up to a 43% increase in streamflow and a 56% decline in basin-wide snowpack. The reduced snowpack will melt out earlier and cause a decrease in spring and summer streamflow. Simulations of stream temperature indicate rising temperatures in every stream segment in the basin by the end of the 21st century as a result of higher air temperatures, declining snowpack, and lower summer streamflow. Monthly average stream temperatures could increase by up to 7.4°C. In addition, the temperature thresholds for every life cycle of endangered salmon species are increasingly exceeded through time, putting at risk already endangered salmon species. By the end of the 21st century, the main stem may experience up to a 10-fold increase in number of days per year exceeding salmon temperature thresholds. Reach-scale predictions of stream temperature trends through the basin offer water resource managers a tool for focusing riparian and groundwater restoration efforts.
Author: Kyra Freeman Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 158
Book Description
Forecast modeling indicates that the North Fork watershed will transition from a snow- to rain-dominated basin into the 21st century as a result of increasing air temperatures. More precipitation in the winter will fall as rain rather than snow, resulting in up to a 43% increase in streamflow and a 56% decline in basin-wide snowpack. The reduced snowpack will melt out earlier and cause a decrease in spring and summer streamflow. Simulations of stream temperature indicate rising temperatures in every stream segment in the basin by the end of the 21st century as a result of higher air temperatures, declining snowpack, and lower summer streamflow. Monthly average stream temperatures could increase by up to 7.4°C. In addition, the temperature thresholds for every life cycle of endangered salmon species are increasingly exceeded through time, putting at risk already endangered salmon species. By the end of the 21st century, the main stem may experience up to a 10-fold increase in number of days per year exceeding salmon temperature thresholds. Reach-scale predictions of stream temperature trends through the basin offer water resource managers a tool for focusing riparian and groundwater restoration efforts.
Author: Susan E. Dickerson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The Nooksack River has its headwaters in the North Cascade Mountains and drains an approximately 2300 km2 watershed in northwestern Washington State. The timing and magnitude of streamflow in a high relief, snow-dominated drainage basin such as the Nooksack River basin is strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of future climate made by general circulation models (GCMs) predict increases in temperature and variable changes to precipitation in western Washington, which will affect streamflow, snowpack, and glaciers in the Nooksack River basin. Anticipating the response of the river to climate change is crucial for water resources planning because municipalities, tribes, and industry depend on the river for water use and for fish habitat. I combined modeled climate forecasts and the Distributed-Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to simulate future changes to timing and magnitude of streamflow in the higher elevations of the Nooksack River, east of the confluence near Deming, Washington. The DHSVM is a physically based, spatially distributed hydrology model that simulates a water and energy balance at the pixel scale of a digital elevation model. I used recent meteorological and landcover data to calibrate and validate the DHSVM. Coarse-resolution GCM forecasts were downscaled to the Nooksack basin following the methods of previous regional studies (e.g., Palmer, 2007) for use as local-scale meteorological input to the calibrated DHSVM. Simulations of future streamflow and snowpack in the Nooksack River basin predict a range of magnitudes, which reflects the variable predictions of the climate change forecasts and local natural variability. Simulation results forecast increased winter flows, decreased summer flows, decreased snowpack, and a shift in timing of the spring melt peak and maximum snow water equivalent. Modeling results for future peak flow events indicate an increase in both the frequency and magnitudes of floods, but uncertainties are high for modeling the absolute magnitudes of peak flows. These results are consistent with previous regional studies which document that temperature-related effects on precipitation and melting are driving changes to snow-melt dominated basins (e.g., Hamlet et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009).
Author: Katie Marie Jorgensen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Watersheds Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
This study hypothesizes the effects of global climate change on the hydrologic regime of West-Central Montana, focusing on the North Fork of Elk Creek, a 6.6 km2 (2.6 mi.2) Experimental Watershed. This is important to understand in snowmelt-dominated watersheds, as it is already well documented by current trends and future climate projections that the natural hydrologic regime is experiencing alterations. There have been shifts in the 20th century of the timing of snowmelt trending towards an earlier spring peak flows and declines in the overall snow water equivalent (Regonda et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Hamlet et al., 2005). The goals for this study are to analyze for significant changes in the timing of important hydrologic events, and determine how discharge throughout the year will be altered in the Elk Creek Experimental Watershed (ECEW). To address these issues, a semi-spatial hydrologic model is employed, and run using current meteorological data and under downscaled climate-change scenarios conditions, under three relevant time periods. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is deterministic and conceptual and is used to generate streamflow in snowmelt dominated basins by the degree-day method (Martinec, 1985). Data is gathered from two SNOTEL sites located within the watershed and streamflow collected directly on the North Fork of Elk Creek. The specific metrics that will be statistically analyzed are mean summer and winter flows, and trends in peak flow and center of mass date timing (Wenger et al., 2009; Regonda et al., 2005). These results can be useful for management purposes because changes in the way water is released from the mountains affects water storage, flooding, and overall watershed resilience such that current practices may need to be accordingly adjusted.
Author: William Burgess Fowler Publisher: ISBN: Category : Blue Mountains (Or. and Wash.) Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
The study area, called the High Ridge evaluation area, is located in the Blue Mountains 22 km. northwest of Elgin and consists of four watersheds ranging between 24 and 118 hectares in size. The study's purpose is to identify the pretreatment conditions of hydrologic behavior in determining effects of management practices. Data collected: precipitation; snow depth and density; streamflow; air, soil, and water temperatures; and speed and direction of wind.
Author: Ryan D. Murphy Publisher: ISBN: Category : Glaciers Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Like many watersheds in the North Cascades range of Washington State, USA, streamflow in the Nooksack River is strongly influenced by precipitation and snowmelt in the spring and glacial ice melt in the warmer summer months. With a maritime climate and high relief containing approximately 34km2 of glacial ice, the streamflow response in the Nooksack River basin is sensitive to increases in temperature. Climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) for the 21st Century indicate increases in temperature with variable changes to precipitation. The watershed is a valuable freshwater resource for regional municipalities, industry, and agriculture, and provides critical habitat for endangered salmon species. Thus, understanding the impacts of forecasted climate change is critical for water resources planning purposes. I apply publically available statistically derived 1/16 degree gridded surface climate data along with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with newly developed coupled dynamic glacier model to simulate hydrologic and glacial processes through the end of the 21st Century. Simulation results project median winter streamflows to more than double by 2075 due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, and median summer flows to decrease by more than half with a general shift in peak snowmelt derived spring flows toward earlier in the spring. Glaciers are projected to retreat significantly with smaller glaciers disappearing entirely. Ice melt contribution to streamflow is likely to play an important role in sustaining summer baseflows in the Nooksack River. Glacier melt derived streamflow is projected to increase throughout the first half of the 21st century and decrease in the latter half after glacier ice volume decreases substantially.
Author: Taesam Lee Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 0429861141 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 195
Book Description
Global climate change is typically understood and modeled using global climate models (GCMs), but the outputs of these models in terms of hydrological variables are only available on coarse or large spatial and time scales, while finer spatial and temporal resolutions are needed to reliably assess the hydro-environmental impacts of climate change. To reliably obtain the required resolutions of hydrological variables, statistical downscaling is typically employed. Statistical Downscaling for Hydrological and Environmental Applications presents statistical downscaling techniques in a practical manner so that both students and practitioners can readily utilize them. Numerous methods are presented, and all are illustrated with practical examples. The book is written so that no prior background in statistics is needed, and it will be useful to graduate students, college faculty, and researchers in hydrology, hydroclimatology, agricultural and environmental sciences, and watershed management. It will also be of interest to environmental policymakers at the local, state, and national levels, as well as readers interested in climate change and its related hydrologic impacts. Features: Examines how to model hydrological events such as extreme rainfall, floods, and droughts at the local, watershed level. Explains how to properly correct for significant biases with the observational data normally found in current Global Climate Models (GCMs). Presents temporal downscaling from daily to hourly with a nonparametric approach. Discusses the myriad effects of climate change on hydrological processes.
Author: Awoke Dagnew Teshager Publisher: ISBN: Category : Agricultural ecology Languages : en Pages : 246
Book Description
Applications of the SWAT model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the tool. In a standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, and slope, but located in different places within a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as LULC, soil, crop rotation and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for the Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002 to 2010 and the Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000 to 2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner. The calibrated and validated SWAT model was then used to assess agricultural scenario and climate change impacts on watershed water quantity, quality, and crop yields. Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental, and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists modeling the combined impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on crop yields and watershed hydrology. Here, SWAT, was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural scenarios and three climate scenarios downscaled using eight climate models. These scenarios were implemented in a well calibrated SWAT model for the Raccoon River watershed (RRW), IA. We run the scenarios for the historical baseline, early-century, mid-century, and late-century periods. Results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid and late 21st century. Finally, various agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios were evaluated for their efficiency in alleviating watershed water quality problems. The vast majority of the literature on efficiency assessment of BMPs in alleviating water quality problems base their scenarios analysis on identifying subbasin level simulation results. In the this study, we used spatially explicit HRUs, defined using ArcGIS-based pre-processing methodology, to identify Nitrate (NO3) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) hotspots at the HRU/field level, and evaluate the efficiency of selected BMPs in a large watershed, RRW, using the SWAT model. Accordingly, analysis of fourteen management scenarios were performed based on systematic combinations of five agricultural BMPs (fertilizer/manure management, changing cropland to perennial grass, vegetative filter strips, cover crops and shallower tile drainage systems) aimed to reduce NO3 and TSS yields from targeted hotspot areas in the watershed at field level. Moreover, implications of climate change on management practices, and impacts of management practices on water availability and crop yield and total production were assessed. Results indicated that either implementation of multiple BMPs or conversion of an extensive area into perennial grass may be required to sufficiently reduce nitrate loads to meet the drinking water standard. Moreover, climate change may undermine the effectiveness of management practices, especially late in the 21 st century. The targeted approach used in this study resulted in slight decreases in watershed average crop yields, hence the reduction in total crop production is mainly due to conversion of croplands to perennial grass.
Author: Kyra Freeman
Author: Kyra Freeman
Author: Anne E. Jeton
Author: Susan E. Dickerson
Author: Katie Marie Jorgensen
Author: 
Author: John C. Risley
Author: William Burgess Fowler
Author: Ryan D. Murphy
Author: Taesam Lee
Author: Awoke Dagnew Teshager