Modeling Prepayment Risk and Valuing Mortgage-backed Securities PDF Download

Author: David G. Anderson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35

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Author: Glenn M. Schultz
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119221536
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 419

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Book Description
A complete guide to investing in and managing a portfolio of mortgage- and asset-backed securities Mortgage- and asset-backed securities are not as complex as they might seem. In fact, all of the information, financial models, and software needed to successfully invest in and manage a portfolio of these securities are available to the investment professional through open source software. Investing in Mortgage and Asset-Backed Securities + Website shows you how to achieve this goal. The book draws entirely on publicly available data and open source software to construct a complete analytic framework for investing in these securities. The analytic models used throughout the book either exist in the quantlib library, as an R package, or are programmed in R and incorporated into the analytic framework used. Examines the valuation of fixed-income securities—metrics, valuation framework, and return analysis Covers residential mortgage-backed securities—security cash flow, mortgage dollar roll, adjustable rate mortgages, and private label MBS Discusses prepayment modeling and the valuation of mortgage credit Presents mortgage-backed securities valuation techniques—pass-through valuation and interest rate models Engaging and informative, this book skillfully shows you how to build, rather than buy, models and proprietary analytical platforms that will allow you to invest in mortgage- and asset-backed securities.

Author: Andrew S. Davidson
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0199998167
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 465

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Book Description
Valuation of mortgage-backed securities requires blending empirical analysis of borrower behavior and mathematical modeling of interest rates and home prices, with recognition of various prices of risk and uncertainty. This book offers a detailed description of the sophisticated theories and advanced methods used for the real-world valuation of MBS.

Author: Yanli Cheng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
While option-theoretic models are widely used in valuation of other fixed-income instruments, their applications for the valuation of mortgage-backed securities face challenges. Mortgages are explicitly written with a call option, which allows mortgagors to prepay their mortgages any time before the maturity. The magnitude and timing of exercising the prepayment options are not purely driven by economic factors, but also the mortgagor's individual preferences and personal behaviours. This brings difficulties to valuing mortgage-backed securities with conventional models. In this thesis we aim to explore the prepayment risk caused uncertainties in valuation of mortgage-backed securities. We start with empirically examining an option-theoretic model proposed by Kalotay, Yang and Fabozzi (2004). This model has special features to treat borrower heterogeneity and suboptimal exercises of the prepayment options. Based on the empirical results, we propose to employ linear prepayment functions to model borrower heterogeneity. The new MBS valuation model with the integration of linear prepayment functions is also tested with empirical data. Our results suggest that mortgages with different coupon rates have different refinancing tendencies even towards the same market rate change. Therefore, assuming the same refinancing pattern to all classes of mortgages may lead to errors in pricing mortgages and MBSs. For mortgages with coupon rate below the prevailing refinancing rate (as proxied by the 30 year libor rate) plus the refinancing cost, a prepayment function with a low initial prepayment rate and a high slope will model the prepayments best. On the other hand, for mortgages with coupon rate above the current refinancing rate plus the refinancing cost, a prepayment function with a high initial prepayment and a mild slope will perform best. Meanwhile, refinancing burnout is also an important factor in modelling mortgage prepayment. Our results suggest that when the underlying mortgages are seasoned mortgages, especially when the prepayment option has been deep-in-the-money for a long time, the low initial prepayment high slope function will model their prepayments the best. Once these different refinancing tendencies are factored in the modelling of mortgage prepayment, the accuracy of the MBS valuation model is greatly improved.

Author: Mikhail Chernov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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Book Description
We introduce a reduced-form modeling framework for mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross section of market prices. From the implied prepayment function, we find that prepayment rates are driven not only by interest rates, but also by two macroeconomic factors: turnover and rate response. Intuitively, turnover represents prepayments for exogenous reasons like employment-related moves, household income shocks, and foreclosures, while rate response reflects frictions faced by borrowers in refinancing into a lower rate. We find that the empirical turnover and rate response measures are both significantly related to macroeconomic measures, suggesting that these factors represent a source of systematic risk. Consistent with this, we find that implied prepayments are substantially higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant prepayment risk premia in mortgage-backed security prices. We analyze the properties of the prepayment risk premium and find that it is almost entirely due to compensation for turnover risk. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing Programs.

Author: Eduardo S. Schwartz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 80

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Book Description

Author: Frank J. Fabozzi
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118044711
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 295

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Book Description
An in-depth look at the latest innovations in mortgage-backed securities The largest sector of the fixed-income market is the mortgage market. Understanding this market is critical for portfolio managers, as well as issuers who must be familiar with how these securities are structured. Mortgage-Backed Securities is a timely guide to the investment characteristics, creation, and analysis of residential real estate-backed securities. Each chapter contains cutting-edge information for investors, traders, and other professionals involved in this market, including discussions of structuring mortgage products-such as agency CMOs and new types of mortgages-and an in-depth explanation of the concept of option-adjusted spreads and other analytical concepts used to assess relative value.

Author: Brett Radcliffe Dunn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 162

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Book Description
This dissertation focuses on a major challenge to asset pricing theory: the valuation of mortgage-backed securities. In the first chapter of this dissertation (with Mikhail Chernov and Francis A. Longstaff), we develop a three-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross-section of market prices. This model closely fits the cross-section of mortgage-backed security prices without needing to specify an econometric prepayment model. We find that implied prepayments are generally higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant macroeconomic-driven prepayment risk premiums in mortgage-backed security prices. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs. In the second chapter, I study the relationship between funding liquidity and the valuation of mortgage-backed securities. Most of the financing for mortgage-backed securities occurs through a trade known as a dollar roll, the simultaneous sale and purchase of forward contracts on mortgage-backed securities that is analogous to a repurchase agreement. I develop a four-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities that allows for the valuation of dollar rolls. Unlike previous models of the dollar roll, I allow for the possibility of a prepayment risk premium. I develop a new measure of mortgage specialness that is independent of prepayment risk premia and agency credit spreads. I find that specialness is related to measures of balance sheet constraints and primary dealer positions in mortgage-backed securities.

Author: Frank J. Fabozzi
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071476830
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1270

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Book Description
The definitive MBS guide, with fully updated material on the latest mortgage-backed products, methods, models, and portfolio strategies By providing hands-on information vital to market participants, previous editions of The Handbook of Mortgage-Backed Securities were instrumental in fueling the growth of the mortgage-backed securities market. The sixth edition contains all the elements that made previous editions so successful and influential, and provides you with more than 25 new chapters on topics including collateralized mortgage obligations, prepayment derivatives, loan level determinants of repayments, new approaches to MBS valuation, and a survey of non-U.S. mortgage rates.

Author: Andrew Davidson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471690015
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 576

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Book Description
"This book fills a very important gap in the mindset of the bond structurer and the investor. Often, the two disciplines approach their tasks ignorant of the perspectives of the other side. But successful structuring requires providing the best value to investors in order to compete, and investors who don’t fully understand structuring will not remain investors for long. Highly recommended!" —Bennett W. Golub, Managing Director, BlackRock, Inc. "An excellent primer on asset securitization, clearly written in plain English and with straightforward mathematical expressions. This book is suitable for both business school students and structured finance market practitioners." —Joseph Hu, PhD, Managing Director, Structured Finance Ratings, Standard & Poor’s "In their new work Securitization: Structuring and Investment Analysis, Andrew Davidson et al. reinforce their preeminence in the alchemy of mortgage securitization. Anyone involved in mortgages neglects Andy’s work at his peril." —Richard T. Pratt, Chairman, Richard T. Pratt Associates; Former Chairman, Merrill Lynch Mortgage Corporation "This book provides an insightful and accessible exploration of securitized real estate markets. As such, it provides a valuable service to those active and interested in these burgeoning markets. The authors have done a wonderful job of gracefully integrating a vast and important subject matter. Accordingly, this book also makes for an excellent textbook for those universities offering one or more courses in this rapidly growing field." —Joseph L. Pagliari, Jr., Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University