Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices PDF Download

Author: Rafal Weron
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470059990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Book Description
This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

Author: Javier Contreras
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 3038424153
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 259

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Book Description
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices" that was published in Energies

Author: Monica Greer
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0080961355
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 360

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Book Description
A "quick look up guide," Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations places the relevant formulae and calculations at the reader's finger tips. In this book, theories are explained in a nutshell and then the calculation is presented and solved in an illustrated, step-by-step fashion. A valuable guide for new engineers, economists (or forecasters), regulators, and policy makers who want to further develop their knowledge of best practice calculations techniques or experienced practitioners (and even managers) who desire to acquire more useful tips, this book offers expert advice for using such cost models to determine optimally-sized distribution systems and optimally-structured power supplying entities. In other words, this book provides an Everything-that-you-want-to-know-about-cost-modelling-for-electric-utilities (but were afraid to ask) approach to modelling the cost of supplying electricity. In addition, the author covers the concept of multiproduct and multistage cost functions, which are appropriate in modelling the cost of supplying electricity. The author has done all the heavy number-crunching, and provides the reader with real-world, practical examples of how to properly quantify the costs associated with providing electric service, thus increasing the accuracy of the results and support for the policy initiatives required to ensure the competitiveness of the power suppliers in this new world in which we are living. The principles contained herein could be employed to assist in the determination of the cost-minimizing amount of output (i.e., electricity), which could then be used to determine whether a merger between two entities makes sense (i.e., would increase profitability). Other examples abound: public regulatory commissions also need help in determining whether mergers (or divestitures) are welfare-enhancing or not; ratemaking policies depend on costs and properly determining the costs of supplying electric (or gas, water, and local telephone) service. Policy makers, too, can benefit in terms of optimal market structure; after all, the premise of deregulation of the electric industry was predicated on the idea that generation could be deregulated. Unfortunately, the economies of vertical integration between the generation. - A comprehensive guide to the cost issues surrounding the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity - Real-world examples that are practical, meaningful, and easy to understand - Policy implications and suggestions to aid in the formation of the optimal market structure going forward (thus increasing efficiency of electric power suppliers) - The principles contained herein could be employed to assist in the determination of the cost-minimizing amount of output

Author: Fred C. Schweppe
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461316839
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 362

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Book Description
There is a need for fundamental changes in the ways society views electric energy. Electric energy must be treated as a commodity which can be bought, sold, and traded, taking into account its time-and space-varying values and costs. This book presents a complete framework for the establishment of such an energy marketplace. The framework is based on the use of spot prices. In general terms: o An hourly spot price (in dollars per kilowatt hour) reflects the operating and capital costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electric energy. It varies each hour and from place to place. o The spot price based energy marketplace involves a variety of utility-customer transactions (ranging from hourly varying prices to long-term, multiple-year contracts), all of which are based in a consistent manner on hourly spot prices. These transactions may include customers selling to, as well as buying from, the utility. The basic theory and practical implementation issues associated with a spot price based energy marketplace have been developed and discussed through a number of different reports, theses, and papers. Each addresses only a part of the total picture, and often with a somewhat different notation and terminology (which has evolved in parallel with our growing experience). This book was xvii xviii Preface written to serve as a single, integrated sourcebook on the theory and imple mentation of a spot price based energy marketplace.

Author: Antonio Gabaldón
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 303943442X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 324

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Book Description
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.

Author: Arthur Mazer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470130563
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 335

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Book Description
As the industry environment transforms from a completely regulated setting to a broader, deregulated marketplace, new market participants must understand planning and operations of power systems to effectively participate in markets. This industry overview provides a description of utility operations and traditional planning, and then explains asset management, investment analysis, and risk management within the context of a market environment. Written to provide a broad, working knowledge of the industry, Electric Power Planning for Regulated and Deregulated Markets: Includes descriptions of generation and transmission network equipment Provides an overview of the regulatory framework, system design and systems operations for ensuring reliable delivery of power Presents system planning across different time horizons with the objective of minimizing power production costs Explains the principles and architecture of a market environment coupling operational imperatives with financial transactions Addresses approaches of various participants, including power producers, retailers, and integrated energy companies toward bidding in day ahead markets, managing risks in forward markets, portfolio development and investment analysis Provides numerous examples addressing cost minimization, price forecasting, contract valuation, portfolio risk measurement and others Examines past news events and explains what went wrong at Three Mile Island, the Northeast blackout of 2003, and the California energy crisis This is an ideal reference for professionals in the public and private power service sectors such as engineers, lawyers, systems specialists, economists, financial analysts, policy analysts, and applied mathematicians.

Author: Kwang Y. Lee
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119602297
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 896

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Book Description
Reviews state-of-the-art technologies in modern heuristic optimization techniques and presents case studies showing how they have been applied in complex power and energy systems problems Written by a team of international experts, this book describes the use of metaheuristic applications in the analysis and design of electric power systems. This includes a discussion of optimum energy and commitment of generation (nonrenewable & renewable) and load resources during day-to-day operations and control activities in regulated and competitive market structures, along with transmission and distribution systems. Applications of Modern Heuristic Optimization Methods in Power and Energy Systems begins with an introduction and overview of applications in power and energy systems before moving on to planning and operation, control, and distribution. Further chapters cover the integration of renewable energy and the smart grid and electricity markets. The book finishes with final conclusions drawn by the editors. Applications of Modern Heuristic Optimization Methods in Power and Energy Systems: Explains the application of differential evolution in electric power systems' active power multi-objective optimal dispatch Includes studies of optimization and stability in load frequency control in modern power systems Describes optimal compliance of reactive power requirements in near-shore wind power plants Features contributions from noted experts in the field Ideal for power and energy systems designers, planners, operators, and consultants, Applications of Modern Heuristic Optimization Methods in Power and Energy Systems will also benefit engineers, software developers, researchers, academics, and students.

Author: IEEE Staff
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781467399265
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
Energy is the major driving force for the economy of any nation The challenge for continuous generation of power to meet the ever growing demand is a daunting task, especially due to the availability of limited resources Energy necessity motivates researchers and industrialist for energy efficient technologies to sustain the world for better living The objective of International Conference on Energy Efficient Technologies for Sustainability 2016 (ICEETS16) is to provide an intellectual forum for professionals of different culture to exposit and emphasis the application of science to conserve energy for joyful existence of human life This conference offers a chance for leading researchers, engineers and scientists to exchange novel thoughts and applications in relation with latest technology and to find global partners to work together

Author: James A. Momoh
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470529156
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 311

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Book Description
Discover cutting-edge developments in electric power systems Stemming from cutting-edge research and education activities in the field of electric power systems, this book brings together the knowledge of a panel of experts in economics, the social sciences, and electric power systems. In ten concise and comprehensible chapters, the book provides unprecedented coverage of the operation, control, planning, and design of electric power systems. It also discusses: A framework for interdisciplinary research and education Modeling electricity markets Alternative economic criteria and proactive planning for transmission investment in deregulated power systems Payment cost minimization with demand bids and partial capacity cost compensations for day-ahead electricity auctions Dynamic oligopolistic competition in an electric power network and impacts of infrastructure disruptions Reliability in monopolies and duopolies Building an efficient, reliable, and sustainable power system Risk-based power system planning integrating social and economic direct and indirect costs Models for transmission expansion planning based on reconfiguration capacitor switching Next-generation optimization for electric power systems Most chapters end with a bibliography, closing remarks, conclusions, or future work. Economic Market Design and Planning for Electric Power Systems is an indispensable reference for policy-makers, executives and engineers of electric utilities, university faculty members, and graduate students and researchers in control theory, electric power systems, economics, and the social sciences.

Author: Darryl R. Biggar
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118775724
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 493

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Book Description
Bridges the knowledge gap between engineering and economics in a complex and evolving deregulated electricity industry, enabling readers to understand, operate, plan and design a modern power system With an accessible and progressive style written in straight-forward language, this book covers everything an engineer or economist needs to know to understand, operate within, plan and design an effective liberalized electricity industry, thus serving as both a useful teaching text and a valuable reference. The book focuses on principles and theory which are independent of any one market design. It outlines where the theory is not implemented in practice, perhaps due to other over-riding concerns. The book covers the basic modelling of electricity markets, including the impact of uncertainty (an integral part of generation investment decisions and transmission cost-benefit analysis). It draws out the parallels to the Nordpool market (an important point of reference for Europe). Written from the perspective of the policy-maker, the first part provides the introductory background knowledge required. This includes an understanding of basic economics concepts such as supply and demand, monopoly, market power and marginal cost. The second part of the book asks how a set of generation, load, and transmission resources should be efficiently operated, and the third part focuses on the generation investment decision. Part 4 addresses the question of the management of risk and Part 5 discusses the question of market power. Any power system must be operated at all times in a manner which can accommodate the next potential contingency. This demands responses by generators and loads on a very short timeframe. Part 6 of the book addresses the question of dispatch in the very short run, introducing the distinction between preventive and corrective actions and why preventive actions are sometimes required. The seventh part deals with pricing issues that arise under a regionally-priced market, such as the Australian NEM. This section introduces the notion of regions and interconnectors and how to formulate constraints for the correct pricing outcomes (the issue of "constraint orientation"). Part 8 addresses the fundamental and difficult issue of efficient transmission investment, and finally Part 9 covers issues that arise in the retail market. Bridges the gap between engineering and economics in electricity, covering both the economics and engineering knowledge needed to accurately understand, plan and develop the electricity market Comprehensive coverage of all the key topics in the economics of electricity markets Covers the latest research and policy issues as well as description of the fundamental concepts and principles that can be applied across all markets globally Numerous worked examples and end-of-chapter problems Companion website holding solutions to problems set out in the book, also the relevant simulation (GAMS) codes