Misconceptions Regarding the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates PDF Download
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Author: Bennett T. McCallum Publisher: ISBN: Category : Capital movements Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
The paper reviews issues related to the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates and argues that all of the following propositions are invalid: (i) in a ZLB situation, "shaping interest rate expectations is essentially the only tool that central bankers have"(Bernanke, et.al., 2004); (ii) fiscal policy actions such as "helicopter drops" are in theory more effective than monetary policy actions; (iii) the prominent "foolproof way" policy rule of Svensson (2001, 2003) is applicable more generally -i.e., even when exact uncovered interest parity holds- than the alternative exchange-rate rule of McCallum (2000); (iv) both of the exchange-rate strategies described in (iii) are open to the objection that they constitute "beggar-thy-neighbor" approaches, and (v) there is a significant danger of ZLB difficulties stemming from a "deflationary trap" type of equilibrium, as distinct from a "liquidity trap."
Author: Bennett T. McCallum Publisher: ISBN: Category : Capital movements Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
The paper reviews issues related to the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates and argues that all of the following propositions are invalid: (i) in a ZLB situation, "shaping interest rate expectations is essentially the only tool that central bankers have"(Bernanke, et.al., 2004); (ii) fiscal policy actions such as "helicopter drops" are in theory more effective than monetary policy actions; (iii) the prominent "foolproof way" policy rule of Svensson (2001, 2003) is applicable more generally -i.e., even when exact uncovered interest parity holds- than the alternative exchange-rate rule of McCallum (2000); (iv) both of the exchange-rate strategies described in (iii) are open to the objection that they constitute "beggar-thy-neighbor" approaches, and (v) there is a significant danger of ZLB difficulties stemming from a "deflationary trap" type of equilibrium, as distinct from a "liquidity trap."
Author: Robert A. Jarrow Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 8
Book Description
Unconventional monetary policy tools are based on the belief that there exists a zero-lower bound on interest rates. This paper argues, based on economic theory and the empirical evidence, that this belief is a myth and not a reality. It is shown that a negative default-free spot rate of interest is consistent with an arbitrage-free term structure evolution in a competitive and nearly frictionless market. It is not frictionless to the extent that consumers, firms, non-bank financial institutions, and banks have some realistic constraints imposed on their trading activities.
Author: Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia Publisher: Montréal : Université de Montréal, Dép. de sciences économiques ISBN: 9782893824437 Category : Languages : en Pages : 31
Author: Ruchir Agarwal Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484398777 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 89
Book Description
The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this paper is that with readily available tools a central bank can enable deep negative rates whenever needed—thus maintaining the power of monetary policy in the future to end recessions within a short time. This paper demonstrates that a subset of these tools can have a big effect in enabling deep negative rates with administratively small actions on the part of the central bank. To that end, we (i) survey approaches to enable deep negative rates discussed in the literature and present new approaches; (ii) establish how a subset of these approaches allows enabling negative rates while remaining at a minimum distance from the current paper currency policy and minimizing the political costs; (iii) discuss why standard transmission mechanisms from interest rates to aggregate demand are likely to remain unchanged in deep negative rate territory; and (iv) present communication tools that central banks can use both now and in the event to facilitate broader political acceptance of negative interest rate policy at the onset of the next serious recession.
Author: Ruchir Agarwal Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513567322 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
There has been much discussion about eliminating the “zero lower bound” by eliminating paper currency. But such a radical and difficult approach as eliminating paper currency is not necessary. Much as during the Great Depression—when countries were able to revive their economies by going off the gold standard—all that is needed to empower monetary policy to cut interest rates as much as needed for economic stimulus now is to change from a paper standard to an electronic money standard, and to be willing to have paper currency go away from par. This paper develops the idea further and shows how such a mechanism can be implemented in a minimalist way by using a time-varying paper currency deposit fee between private banks and the central bank. This allows the central bank to create a crawling-peg exchange rate between paper currency and electronic money; the paper currency interest rate can be either lowered below zero or raised above zero. Such an ability to vary the paper currency interest rate along with other key interest rates, makes it possible to stimulate investment and net exports as much as needed to revive the economy, even when inflation, interest rates, and economic activity are quite low, as they are currently in many countries. The paper also examines different options available to the central bank to return to par when negative interest rates are no longer needed, and the associated implications for the financial sector and debt contracts. Finally, the paper discusses various legal, political, and economic challenges of putting in place such a framework and how policymakers could address them.
Author: Ruchir Agarwal Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513536915 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
There has been much discussion about eliminating the “zero lower bound” by eliminating paper currency. But such a radical and difficult approach as eliminating paper currency is not necessary. Much as during the Great Depression—when countries were able to revive their economies by going off the gold standard—all that is needed to empower monetary policy to cut interest rates as much as needed for economic stimulus now is to change from a paper standard to an electronic money standard, and to be willing to have paper currency go away from par. This paper develops the idea further and shows how such a mechanism can be implemented in a minimalist way by using a time-varying paper currency deposit fee between private banks and the central bank. This allows the central bank to create a crawling-peg exchange rate between paper currency and electronic money; the paper currency interest rate can be either lowered below zero or raised above zero. Such an ability to vary the paper currency interest rate along with other key interest rates, makes it possible to stimulate investment and net exports as much as needed to revive the economy, even when inflation, interest rates, and economic activity are quite low, as they are currently in many countries. The paper also examines different options available to the central bank to return to par when negative interest rates are no longer needed, and the associated implications for the financial sector and debt contracts. Finally, the paper discusses various legal, political, and economic challenges of putting in place such a framework and how policymakers could address them.
Author: Scott Sumner Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226826562 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 415
Book Description
The first book-length work on market monetarism, written by its leading scholar. Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It’s happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of the 21st century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of problems such as housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays the groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish.
Author: Bennett T. McCallum
Author: Bennett T. McCallum
Author: Bennett T. McCallum
Author: Robert A. Jarrow
Author: Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia
Author: Ruchir Agarwal
Author: Cullen Roche
Author: Ruchir Agarwal
Author: Ruchir Agarwal
Author: Willem H. Buiter
Author: Scott Sumner