Author: Obaid Younossi Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 9780833030368 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 141
Book Description
In recent years, a number of attempts have been made to estimate the cost of future weapon systems toward the goal of optimizing acquisition policy. This report focuses specifically on the effects of material mix, manufacturing techniques, and geometric part complexity on the cost of military airframes. It begins by offering background information on those materials that are most critical to airframe manufacture and on the relative advantages of both traditional and evolving part fabrication techniques. It then proceeds to a quantitative analysis of the cost implications of various materials and manufacturing techniques on airframe production, drawing both from an industry survey and from analysis of industry data. The data thus derived are then integrated with those of a comprehensive historical database. The report concludes that composites, while offering a number of advantages over metals in airframe manufacture, are generally associated with higher costs across a range of categories. At the same time, it concludes that while new manufacturing technologies hold the potential to diminish airframe manufacturing costs, the increased airframe complexity of future fighter aircraft may well offset this advantage. The report recommends that cost analysts remain abreast of changes in industry practice so that they may more accurately gauge the potential effects of such changes on future airframe costs.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 160
Book Description
Good cost estimates can make important contributions to effective acquisition policy. RAND has a long history of producing cost-estimating methodologies. Two of its more recent studies are Hess and Romanoff (1987) and Resetar, Rogers, and Hess (1991). This report both updates and extends these earlier studies, focusing on the effects of material mix, manufacturing technique, and part geometric complexity on cost. We collected two types of information on these effects. First, we surveyed the military airframe industry for estimates of how aircraft production costs vary with airframe structure material mix. Second, we analyzed a large set of actual part data from recent aircraft manufacturing efforts that we collected from industry. We also estimated a set of airframe relationships (CERs) for labor hours based on MACDAR, a historical airframe database. We then integrated the effects of material mix into these estimates.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This report is part of a project responding to a call by the U.S. Air Force to update cost estimating methodologies for new weapons systems-in particular, fighter aircraft. The Air Force was concerned that Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) based on older aircraft did not adequately reflect the acquisition and manufacturing environment within which a new fighter, such as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) would be produced. This report is one of a series, all of which address some aspect of how to incorporate the new DoD acquisition and manufacturing environments into historical cost estimating relationships or methodologies (See Younossi, Graser, and Kennedy, 2001; Lorell and Graser, 2001). Using the CER methodology for example, the cost of a future aircraft is estimated as a function of its physical or characteristics or other program variables, using a series of equations wherein the performance and program variables are inputs, and cost or labor hours are the outputs. To create these equations, actual costs (or labor hours) to produce previous aircraft are collected and used as the dependent variables in statistical regression analysis. Explanatory variables typically include such factors as cumulative production quantity, annual production rate, such aircraft characteristics as weight and speed, and others. The resulting equations are referred to as "cost estimating relationships," or CERs. Obviously, the ability of these equations to forecast future systems costs hinges on how well past performance is a predictor of the future.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 165
Book Description
This report is part of a project responding to a call by the U.S. Air Force to update cost estimating methodologies for new weapons systems-in particular, fighter aircraft. The Air Force was concerned that Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) based on older aircraft did not adequately reflect the acquisition and manufacturing environment within which a new fighter, such as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) would be produced. This report is one of a series, all of which address some aspect of how to incorporate the new DoD acquisition and manufacturing environments into historical cost estimating relationships or methodologies (See Younossi, Graser, and Kennedy, 2001; Lorell and Graser, 2001). Using the CER methodology for example, the cost of a future aircraft is estimated as a function of its physical or characteristics or other program variables, using a series of equations wherein the performance and program variables are inputs, and cost or labor hours are the outputs. To create these equations, actual costs (or labor hours) to produce previous aircraft are collected and used as the dependent variables in statistical regression analysis. Explanatory variables typically include such factors as cumulative production quantity, annual production rate, such aircraft characteristics as weight and speed, and others. The resulting equations are referred to as "cost estimating relationships," or CERs. Obviously, the ability of these equations to forecast future systems costs hinges on how well past performance is a predictor of the future.
Author: Mark V. Arena Publisher: RAND Corporation ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 120
Book Description
This report explores why, in recent decades, military fixed-wing aircraft costs have escalated beyond the rates of commonly used inflation indices, examining both economy-driven factors that the Services cannot control and customer-driven ones that they can. The authors found that this trend of cost increases is true for all types of aircraft--patrol, cargo, trainer, bomber, attack, fighter, and electronic warfare.
Author: Mark V. Arena Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 0833039253 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 74
Book Description
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Author: Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 083303863X Category : History Languages : en Pages : 204
Book Description
This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives."
Author: David E. Stem Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 0833038729 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 211
Book Description
Systems engineering and program management (SE/PM) constitute a large portion of the acquisition cost of military aircraft and guided weapons systems. The goal of this study was the development of a set of cost-estimating relationships that can be used to estimate the SE/PM cost element for development and production of aircraft and weapons programs. The authors canvassed government and industry personnel to learn about current techniques for estimating SE/PM costs, and they collected historical data from several aircraft and weapons programs to investigate trends in SE/PM costs over time and to generate methods that cost analysts can use early in the life cycle of a program when little cost information is available. The authors also investigated the effects on SE/PM costs from acquisition reform, including the reduction in the number of military specifications and standards, the use of integrated product and process teams, and the trend toward "evolutionary acquisition." This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Book jacket.
Author: Obaid Younossi
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Author: Mark V. Arena
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Author: Mark V. Arena
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Author: David E. Stem
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