Author: Mr.Emanuele Baldacci Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455253332 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 22
Book Description
This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.
Author: Iva Petrova Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455254312 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 43
Book Description
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events. The fiscal stress index depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators, aggregated using the approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). The index is used to assess the build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s in advanced and emering economies. Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries, reflecting raising solvency risks and financing needs. In emerging economies, risks are lower than in mature economies owing to sounder fiscal fundamentals, but fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis.
Author: Evgenia Gorina Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
The Great Recession produced a wave of fiscal crises in American cities and counties. In addition to the high profile bankruptcies in Vallejo, Stockton, San Bernardino, many local governments were compelled to declare fiscal emergencies, raise tax rates, lay off or furlough workers, and undertake other unpopular strategies of fiscal retrenchment. Yet, other municipalities weathered the recession without taking such actions. Using a variation in local fiscal performance in the Great Recession and years that followed (FY2007-2012), we develop and test a model of fiscal distress for cities and counties. The model focuses on the relationship between fiscal distress and a set of its leading indicators. Our work contributes local fiscal management research in two ways. First, we work with data from local Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFRs), budgets and media coverage to construct a unique dependent variable of fiscal distress. And second, our models include a wide variety of fiscal and socio-economic variables as predictors. Such variables include measures of fiscal reserves, debt, pension funding discipline, as well as data on real estate pricing, local incomes, and unemployment. The study will also include fiscal structure variables and will highlight the role of revenue composition in local financial management.
Author: Charles H. Levine Publisher: Chatham, N.J. : Chatham House Publishers ISBN: Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 356
Book Description
"Fiscal stress is a problem of growing concern to all levels of government. This volume provides in-depth analyses of the causes and consequences of financial stress, and offers solutions for managers charged with the responsibility for maintaining fiscal solvency and adequate and equitable services"--Back cover.
Author: Murray Petrie Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The focus in this paper is on fiscal vulnerability from a macroeconomic perspective, and the suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer- term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of fiscal policy.
Author: Charles H. Levine Publisher: SAGE Publications, Incorporated ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 320
Book Description
Provides some of the most current thinking on various aspects of fiscal stress in the public sector and its implications for public management. It lays out the background of financial stress at the federal, state, and local levels, suggesting how various public bodies have responded or might respond to fiscal stress. 'Fiscal Stress and Public Policy is an excellent collection of articles. They are provocative, readable, and of enduring value of academicians, scholars and students of public policy. Indeed, individual contributions are overshadowed only by the overall quality of the volume.' -- Quality and Quantity, Vol 17, 1983 'This is an excellent collection of essays. They coalesce around an extremely imp
Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498345662 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 61
Book Description
Comprehensive analysis and management of fiscal risks can help ensure sound fiscal public finances and macroeconomic stability. This has been underscored by the global financial crisis and the more recent collapse in commodity prices, which starkly illustrate the vulnerability of public finances to risk. Indeed, over the past quarter century, governments experienced on average an adverse fiscal shock of 6 percent of GDP once every 12 years, with some of the largest stemming from financial crises. Countries need a more complete understanding of these potential threats to their fiscal position. Existing fiscal risk disclosure and analysis practices tend to be incomplete, fragmented, and qualitative in nature. A more comprehensive and integrated assessment of the potential shocks to government finances, in the form of a fiscal stress test, can help policymakers simulate the effects of shocks to their central forecasts and their implications for government solvency, liquidity, and financing needs. Comprehensive, reliable, and timely fiscal data covering all public entities, stocks, and flows are a necessary foundation for such analysis. Countries should also enhance their capacity to mitigate and manage fiscal risks. Fiscal risk management practices are often blunt, ad hoc, and too focused on imposing limits on the creation of exposures. Countries need to expand their toolkits for fiscal risk management and adopt the use of instruments to transfer, share, or provision for risks. In doing so, countries need to weigh the possible benefits from reducing their exposure to shocks against the financial and other costs of the policies that may be needed. Finally, countries should make greater use of probabilistic forecasting methods when setting long-run objectives and medium-term targets for fiscal policy. The paper illustrates how simple probabilistic tools can be used to map the uncertainty around medium-term trajectories for public debt. In combination with fiscal stress tests, these tools can provide valuable information regarding the probabilities that a country will stay within the debt ceilings embedded in their fiscal rules. The Fund is playing an important role in supporting improvements in fiscal risk analysis and management among its members. This includes technical assistance in constructing public sector balance sheets; developing institutions and capacity to identify specific fiscal risks and to quantify their potential impact; undertaking fiscal stress tests; and integrating risks into the design of medium-term fiscal targets.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498345581 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting whether a government can raise spending or lower taxes without endangering market access and debt sustainability. Making such a determination requires a comprehensive approach considering, among other things, initial economic and structural conditions, market access, the level and trajectory of public debt, present and future financing needs, and dynamic analysis of the liquidity and solvency of the fiscal position under alternative policies. Balancing these considerations involves careful analysis and judgment. Fund staff has over the years developed a variety of indicators to inform assessments of fiscal space in bilateral and multilateral surveillance. The Fund’s core operational framework for such analysis is the debt sustainability framework, which includes a number of indicators, while allowing room for staff judgment. Surveillance also relies importantly on indicators developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)––including those that have been used in the internal Vulnerability Exercise and Fiscal Monitors––while more recent methods based on fiscal stress tests and probabilistic approaches proposed in IMF (2016) are also promising. In addition, teams have used scenario analysis and general equilibrium modeling approaches to evaluate fiscal policy choices and their implications for sustainability. When applied to fiscal space, each indicator and approach has pros and cons and none covers all the relevant factors. Ultimately, therefore, assessing fiscal space requires judgment, informed by a broad range of tools. This note seeks to bring together various approaches developed by Fund staff to outline a consistent set of considerations and indicators to help inform assessments of fiscal space, especially for advanced and emerging markets. The intent is to facilitate continued consistency between country team assessments by providing some common considerations and approaches to inform their judgment. The proposed framework will support Fund surveillance and policy advice going forward, informing discussions of the appropriate fiscal stance at all stages of the economic cycle.
Author: Sarah Arnett Publisher: ISBN: Category : Government spending policy Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Fiscal stress is an important and recurring problem that states face. Research to date on state fiscal stress involves, predominantly, cross-sectional and case study analyses and does not address the effectiveness of state responses. Many of these studies use different definitions and measures of fiscal stress compounding the difficulty of comparing fiscal stress findings. The present research effort adds to the fiscal stress literature by (1) clarifying the meaning of fiscal stress in the state context, (2) developing a measure of fiscal stress that operationalizes this meaning and is comparable across units, and 3) using this measure analyzes patterns in and the effectiveness of state responses. Fiscal stress is measured using four indexes: budget, cash, long-run, service-level. Eleven financial indicators, calculated using data from state Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFRs), are used to create these indexes for all fifty states for the years 2002-2009. Descriptive analysis compares state fiscal stress levels (grouped into low, moderate, and high fiscal stress by cluster analysis) to state economic growth rates, state responses, and institutional factors yielding several findings. First, states do not use an incremental or punctuated equilibrium strategy in responding to fiscal stress; nor do their responses follow the pattern predicted by Cutback Management theory. Second, institutional factors affect both the levels of fiscal stress and state responses to fiscal stress. Regression analysis supports and extends these findings. First, short-term responses of expenditure cuts, tax increases, and rainy day fund use do not affect state fiscal stress levels. Second, these responses have long-term effects on fiscal stress levels. A major implication of this research is that there is very little states can do in the short-term to reduce fiscal stress. However, by balancing expenditures and revenues states can set themselves up to weather the next economic downturn with lower levels of fiscal stress.
Author: Mrs.Kerstin Gerling Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475592159 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 43
Book Description
A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.
Author: Mr.Emanuele Baldacci
Author: Iva Petrova
Author: Evgenia Gorina
Author: Charles H. Levine
Author: Murray Petrie
Author: Charles H. Levine
Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Author: Sarah Arnett
Author: Mrs.Kerstin Gerling