Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets PDF Download

Author: Andrew Wen-Chuan Lo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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Author: Andrew W. Lo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 60

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We construct portfolios of stocks and of bonds that are maximally predictable with respect to a set of ex ante observable economic variables, and show that these levels of predictability are statistically significant, even after controlling for data-snooping biases. We disaggregate the sources for predictability by using several asset groups, including industry-sorted portfolios, and find that the sources of maximal predictability shift considerably across asset classes and sectors as the return-horizon changes. Using three out-of-sample measures of predictability, we show that the predictability of the maximally predictable portfolio is genuine and economically significant.

Author: Andrew Wen-Chuan Lo
Publisher: Forgotten Books
ISBN: 9780266502036
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 60

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Book Description
Excerpt from Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets For these reasons, many economists have undertaken the search for predictability in earnest and with great vigor. Indeed, the very attempt to improve the goodness-of - fit of theories to observations - Leamer's (1978) so-called specification searches - can be viewed as a search for predictability. But as important as it is, predictability is rarely maximized systematically in empirical investigations, even though it may dictate the course of the investigation at many critical junctures and, as a consequence, is maximized implicitly over time and over sequences of investigations. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.

Author: ANDREW WEN-CHUAN. LO
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781033303061
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Andrew W. Lo
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829097
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 449

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For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.

Author: Andrew W. Lo
Publisher: Trieste Publishing
ISBN: 9780649644865
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 70

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Trieste Publishing has a massive catalogue of classic book titles. Our aim is to provide readers with the highest quality reproductions of fiction and non-fiction literature that has stood the test of time. The many thousands of books in our collection have been sourced from libraries and private collections around the world.The titles that Trieste Publishing has chosen to be part of the collection have been scanned to simulate the original. Our readers see the books the same way that their first readers did decades or a hundred or more years ago. Books from that period are often spoiled by imperfections that did not exist in the original. Imperfections could be in the form of blurred text, photographs, or missing pages. It is highly unlikely that this would occur with one of our books. Our extensive quality control ensures that the readers of Trieste Publishing's books will be delighted with their purchase. Our staff has thoroughly reviewed every page of all the books in the collection, repairing, or if necessary, rejecting titles that are not of the highest quality. This process ensures that the reader of one of Trieste Publishing's titles receives a volume that faithfully reproduces the original, and to the maximum degree possible, gives them the experience of owning the original work.We pride ourselves on not only creating a pathway to an extensive reservoir of books of the finest quality, but also providing value to every one of our readers. Generally, Trieste books are purchased singly - on demand, however they may also be purchased in bulk. Readers interested in bulk purchases are invited to contact us directly to enquire about our tailored bulk rates.

Author: Friedrich Christian Kruse
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 3844101853
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 222

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Finance researchers and asset management practitioners put a lot of effort into the question of optimal asset allocation. With this respect, a lot of research has been conducted on portfolio decision making as well as quantitative modeling and prediction models. This study brings together three fields of research, which are usually analyzed in an isolated manner in the literature: - Predictability of asset returns and their covariance matrix - Optimal portfolio decision making - Nonlinear modeling, performed by artificial neural networks, and their impact on predictions as well as optimal portfolio construction Including predictability in asset allocation is the focus of this work and it pays special attention to issues related to nonlinearities. The contribution of this study to the portfolio choice literature is twofold. First, motivated by the evidence of linear predictability, the impact of nonlinear predictions on portfolio performances is analyzed. Predictions are empirically performed for an investor who invests in equities (represented by the DAX index), bonds (represented by the REXP index) and a risk-free rate. Second, a solution to the dynamic programming problem for intertemporal portfolio choice is presented. The method is based on functional approximations of the investor's value function with artificial neural networks. The method is easily capable of handling multiple state variables. Hence, the effect of adding predictive parameters to the state space is the focus of analysis as well as the impacts of estimation biases and the view of a Bayesian investor on intertemporal portfolio choice. One important empirical result shows that residual correlation among state variables have an impact on intertemporal portfolio decision making.

Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400830214
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 630

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Book Description
The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.

Author: Songsak Sriboonchitta
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030972739
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 762

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Book Description
This book describes state-of-the-art economic ideas and how these ideas can be (and are) used to make economic decision (in particular, to optimally allocate assets) and to gauge the results of different economic decisions (in particular, by using optimal transport methods). Special emphasis is paid to machine learning techniques (including deep learning) and to different aspects of quantum econometrics—when quantum physics and quantum computing models are techniques are applied to study economic phenomena. Applications range from more traditional economic areas to more non-traditional topics such as economic aspects of tourism, cryptocurrencies, telecommunication infrastructure, and pandemic. This book helps student to learn new techniques, practitioners to become better knowledgeable of the state-of-the-art econometric techniques, and researchers to further develop these important research directions

Author: Haibin Xie
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000369331
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 133

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Book Description
Candlestick charts are often used in speculative markets to describe and forecast asset price movements. This book is the first of its kind to investigate candlestick charts and their statistical properties. It provides an empirical evaluation of candlestick forecasting. The book proposes a novel technique to obtain the statistical properties of candlestick charts. The technique, which is known as the range decomposition technique, shows how security price is approximately logged into two ranges, i.e. technical range and Parkinson range. Through decomposition-based modeling techniques and empirical datasets, the book investigates the power of, and establishes the statistical foundation of, candlestick forecasting.