Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology PDF Download

Author: Gerardo Chowell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9048123135
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 367

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Book Description
Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology compiles t- oretical and practical contributions of experts in the analysis of infectious disease epidemics in a single volume. Recent collections have focused in the analyses and simulation of deterministic and stochastic models whose aim is to identify and rank epidemiological and social mechanisms responsible for disease transmission. The contributions in this volume focus on the connections between models and disease data with emphasis on the application of mathematical and statistical approaches that quantify model and data uncertainty. The book is aimed at public health experts, applied mathematicians and sci- tists in the life and social sciences, particularly graduate or advanced undergraduate students, who are interested not only in building and connecting models to data but also in applying and developing methods that quantify uncertainty in the context of infectious diseases. Chowell and Brauer open this volume with an overview of the classical disease transmission models of Kermack-McKendrick including extensions that account for increased levels of epidemiological heterogeneity. Their theoretical tour is followed by the introduction of a simple methodology for the estimation of, the basic reproduction number,R . The use of this methodology 0 is illustrated, using regional data for 1918–1919 and 1968 in uenza pandemics.

Author: Carlos Castillo-Chavez
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642934544
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 416

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Book Description
The 18 research articles of this volume discuss the major themes that have emerged from mathematical and statistical research in the epidemiology of HIV. The opening paper reviews important recent contributions. Five sections follow: Statistical Methodology and Forecasting, Infectivity and the HIV, Heterogeneity and HIV Transmission Dynamics, Social Dynamics and AIDS, and The Immune System and The HIV. In each, leading experts in AIDS epidemiology present the recent results. Some address the role of variable infectivity, heterogeneous mixing, and long periods of infectiousness in the dynamics of HIV; others concentrate on parameter estimation and short-term forecasting. The last section looks at the interaction between the HIV and the immune system.

Author: Fred Brauer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540789103
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 415

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Book Description
Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).

Author: Ron Brookmeyer
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0195076419
Category : AIDS (Disease)
Languages : en
Pages : 371

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Book Description
In addition to a comprehensive discussion of methods for gauging the extent of the epidemic and forecasting AIDS incidence, this book presents methods and results concerning the risks of HIV transmission, the incubation period of HIV infection, markers of disease progression, prevention strategies, including strategies to protect the blood supply, and the evaluation of treatments and vaccines. These topics are presented quantitatively, with an emphasis on the strengths and weaknesses of available data. The book highlights how a naive statistical approach to the design or analysis of such studies can lead to seriously misleading results. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting HIV disease and AIDS incidence are given thorough treatment.

Author: Charles J. Mode
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 981024097X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 765

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Book Description
AIDS (autoimmune deficiency syndrome) is a devastating human disease cause by HIV, a human immunodeficiency virus, which may be transmitted by either sexual or other contacts in which body fluids are exchanged. Cases of AIDS have been reported in a majority of countries throughout the world, indicating that the HIV/AIDS epidemic is international in scope. This book deals with the mathematical and statistical techniques underlying the models used to understand the population dynamics of not only HIV/AIDS but also other infectious diseases. Attention is given to the development strategies for the prevention and control of the international epidemic within the frameworks of the models. Two distinguishing features of the book are the incorporation of stochastic and deterministic formulations within a unifying conceptual framework and the discussion of issues related to the mathematical designs of models, which are necessary for the rigorous utilization of computer-intensive methods. The book will be of value to applied mathematicians, biomathematicians, biostatisticians, epidemiologists and other scientists interested in applying mathematics and computers to not only the HIV/AIDS epidemic but also other fields of epidemiology.

Author: King K. Holmes
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464805253
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 1027

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Book Description
Infectious diseases are the leading cause of death globally, particularly among children and young adults. The spread of new pathogens and the threat of antimicrobial resistance pose particular challenges in combating these diseases. Major Infectious Diseases identifies feasible, cost-effective packages of interventions and strategies across delivery platforms to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS, other sexually transmitted infections, tuberculosis, malaria, adult febrile illness, viral hepatitis, and neglected tropical diseases. The volume emphasizes the need to effectively address emerging antimicrobial resistance, strengthen health systems, and increase access to care. The attainable goals are to reduce incidence, develop innovative approaches, and optimize existing tools in resource-constrained settings.

Author: Fred Brauer
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 1493998285
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 628

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Book Description
The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of disease transmission models. It includes (i) an introduction to the main concepts of compartmental models including models with heterogeneous mixing of individuals and models for vector-transmitted diseases, (ii) a detailed analysis of models for important specific diseases, including tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, influenza, Ebola virus disease, malaria, dengue fever and the Zika virus, (iii) an introduction to more advanced mathematical topics, including age structure, spatial structure, and mobility, and (iv) some challenges and opportunities for the future. There are exercises of varying degrees of difficulty, and projects leading to new research directions. For the benefit of public health professionals whose contact with mathematics may not be recent, there is an appendix covering the necessary mathematical background. There are indications which sections require a strong mathematical background so that the book can be useful for both mathematical modelers and public health professionals.

Author: Alan Whiteside
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0192806920
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 169

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Book Description
Providing an introduction to HIV/AIDS, this book explains the science, the international and local politics, the demographics and the devastating consequences of the disease. This book is aimed at general readers interested in the science, the epidemiology and the social effects of the disease which has killed 20 million.

Author: Simon A. Levin
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642501249
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 637

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Book Description
From a mathematical point of view, physiologically structured population models are an underdeveloped branch of the theory of infinite dimensional dynamical systems. We have called attention to four aspects: (i) A choice has to be made about the kind of equations one extracts from the predominantly verbal arguments about the basic assumptions, and subsequently uses as a starting point for a rigorous mathematical analysis. Though differential equations are easy to formulate (different mechanisms don't interact in infinites imal time intervals and so end up as separate terms in the equations) they may be hard to interpret rigorously as infinitesimal generators. Integral equations constitute an attractive alternative. (ii) The ability of physiologically structured population models to increase our un derstanding of the relation between mechanisms at the i-level and phenomena at the p-level will depend strongly on the development of dynamical systems lab facilities which are applicable to this class of models. (iii) Physiologically structured population models are ideally suited for the for mulation of evolutionary questions. Apart from the special case of age (see Charlesworth 1980, Yodzis 1989, Caswell 1989, and the references given there) hardly any theory exists at the moment. This will, hopefully, change rapidly in the coming years. Again the development of appropriate software may turn out to be crucial.

Author: National Research Council and Institute of Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309176212
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 352

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Book Description
This volume addresses the interface of two major national problems: the epidemic of HIV-AIDS and the widespread use of illegal injection drugs. Should communities have the option of giving drug users sterile needles or bleach for cleaning needs in order to reduce the spread of HIV? Does needle distribution worsen the drug problem, as opponents of such programs argue? Do they reduce the spread of other serious diseases, such as hepatitis? Do they result in more used needles being carelessly discarded in the community? The panel takes a critical look at the available data on needle exchange and bleach distribution programs, reaches conclusions about their efficacy, and offers concrete recommendations for public policy to reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS. The book includes current knowledge about the epidemiologies of HIV/AIDS and injection drug use; characteristics of needle exchange and bleach distribution programs and views on those programs from diverse community groups; and a discussion of laws designed to control possession of needles, their impact on needle sharing among injection drug users, and their implications for needle exchange programs.