Author: Christoph Emanuel JornsPublisher:
ISBN: 9783832286415
Category : Formation of expectations
Languages : en
Pages : 110
Book Description
Analysts' Forecasts as Earnings Expectations (Classic Reprint)
Author: Patricia C. O'BrienPublisher: Forgotten Books
ISBN: 9780364062012
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 134
Book Description
Excerpt from Analysts' Forecasts as Earnings Expectations A third contribution of this paper is a methodological refinement of the techniques used to evaluate forecastsp I demonstrate the existence of significant time-period - specific effects in forecast errors. If time series and cross-section data are pooled without taking these effects into account, the statistical results may be overstated, and the results are subject to an aggregation bias. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Market Expectations and Analyst Forecasts
Author: Christoph Emanuel JornsPublisher:
ISBN: 9783832286415
Category : Formation of expectations
Languages : en
Pages : 110
Book Description
Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations
Author: Sundaresh RamnathPublisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981627
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 125
Book Description
Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
'Other Information' as an Explanatory Factor for the Market Reactions to Firms' Meeting Or Beating Analyst Forecasts
Author: Vincent Y. S. ChenPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 69
Book Description
Although analyst forecasts are one of the most critical thresholds for setting the market's expectations, the meeting of analyst forecasts is not always followed by a positive market reaction. In this study, I find that the market reacts negatively to 41 percent of firms that meet or beat analyst forecasts and positively to 44 percent of firms that miss analyst forecasts. Intuitively, the seemingly counterintuitive market reactions to firms' meeting or beating analyst forecasts indicate that the market's expectations about a firm's future earnings is based not only on earnings but also on 'other information'. I estimate the content of 'other information' in analyst forecasts as a basis for the seemingly opposite direction of the market reactions and find that content to be an explanatory factor. Specifically, I find that the market values a firm's long-run growth, market risk, forecast precision, accounting loss, price decreases from the prior quarter and the past history of meeting or beating analyst forecasts when assessing the firm's meeting or beating analyst forecast expectations. I also find the evidence, however, that the market overestimates the persistence of the other information in analyst forecasts about future earnings. Overall, I find that the market does not functionally fixate on earnings when valuing firms' meeting or beating analyst forecasts. The consequences of capital market concerns of the meeting or beating analyst expectations seem to have been overemphasized.
The Accuracy of Analyst Forecasts
Author: Patrick J. ButlerPublisher: diplom.de
ISBN: 3832461671
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 99
Book Description
Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: This paper investigates the quality of financial analysts' earnings forecasts for companies which conducted initial public offerings (IPOs) during the years 1997 to 1999. The Neue Markt in Frankfurt offers a good setting to also study the development of a young market from the beginning of its operation onwards. I find support for the notion that initial returns and analysts' forecast accuracy are negatively related. I find that analysts' forecasts were by no means accurate. Mean forecast deviation, measured as percent deviation from actual earnings per share for the fiscal year, is 186.61 percent for the average broker. The sample is inhibited by serious availability problems, but all the same allows significant findings. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction5 2.Literature10 2.1Banking systems the German framework10 2.2Conflict of interest as regulated in the German legal system12 2.3The quality of analysts' forecasts and conflicts of interest16 2.4The long-run underperformance phenomenon23 2.5Predicting the aftermarket performance of IPOs27 2.6Summary39 3.Data41 4.Method49 5.Empirical Results53 5.1IPOs differentiated by year of issue53 5.2Disparities of actual values58 5.3Earning per share found in annual reports as basis62 5.4IPOs differentiated by industry classification67 5.5Percentage deviations differentiated by Brokers73 6.Additional Results80 6.1Large German banks seasoned vs. IPO companies80 6.2The time factor86 6.3The relevance of accounting policy88 7.Summary and Conclusion92 8.References95
The Magnitude and Timing of Analyst Forecast Response to Quarterly Earnings Announcements
Author: Lise Newman GrahamPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporate profits
Languages : en
Pages : 334
Book Description
Over-reactions in Analysts' Long-term Earnings Growth Forecasts and Their Implications for Market Anomalies
Author: Aili LiCompany Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts
Author: Daniel KreutzmannPublisher: Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
ISBN: 3832525297
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 141
Book Description
This thesis focuses on the three primitive value drivers of each company valuation model that is based on fundamental analysis: the discount rate, the expected future payoffs during the explicit forecasting period, and the terminal value at the end of the explicit forecasting period. While the first factor is analyzed theoretically by incorporating the government into the classical valuation framework, this thesis studies the other two factors by investigating forecasts made by professional investors, i.e. financial analysts. In the first part we show that the government's and the shareholders discount rate usually differ and analyze how the government's and shareholders different objectives lead to conflicts in the context of capital budgeting. The empirical part of this thesis shows that macroeconomic information is frequently used by financial analysts when updating their earnings expecations and that target price forecastsmade by financial analysts can be used to predict abnormal returns.
Author: William Kross
Author: Wenjuan Xie