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Author: Dawn A. Matsumoto Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
Recent reports in the popular press allege that managers guide analysts' forecasts downward to improve their chances of meeting or beating these forecasts when earnings are announced. Since the majority of this alleged guidance is unobservable, I use systematic patterns in analysts' forecast errors as a proxy for firm-provided guidance and examine both the change in guidance over time as well as the characteristics of firms exhibiting evidence of this guidance. The evidence is consistent with an increase in firm-provided guidance in recent years and differences across firms in the propensity to guide forecasts downward. In particular, I find: 1) an increasing number of forecast errors exactly equal to zero particularly for firms with initially high forecasts; 2) when firms miss analysts' expectations at the earnings announcement, the proportion that miss quot;highquot; (positive earnings surprise) versus miss quot;lowquot; (negative earnings surprise) has increased in recent years particularly for firms with initially high forecasts; 3) firms with higher growth prospects, higher institutional ownership, and higher litigation risk are more likely to guide analysts' forecasts downward to ensure reported earnings meet expectations at the earnings announcement, while firms with low value relevance of earnings are less likely to do so; and 4) firms with high institutional ownership and reliance on implicit claims with their stakeholders tend to exceed rather than fall short of expectations at the earnings announcement.
Author: Dawn A. Matsumoto Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
Recent reports in the popular press allege that managers guide analysts' forecasts downward to improve their chances of meeting or beating these forecasts when earnings are announced. Since the majority of this alleged guidance is unobservable, I use systematic patterns in analysts' forecast errors as a proxy for firm-provided guidance and examine both the change in guidance over time as well as the characteristics of firms exhibiting evidence of this guidance. The evidence is consistent with an increase in firm-provided guidance in recent years and differences across firms in the propensity to guide forecasts downward. In particular, I find: 1) an increasing number of forecast errors exactly equal to zero particularly for firms with initially high forecasts; 2) when firms miss analysts' expectations at the earnings announcement, the proportion that miss quot;highquot; (positive earnings surprise) versus miss quot;lowquot; (negative earnings surprise) has increased in recent years particularly for firms with initially high forecasts; 3) firms with higher growth prospects, higher institutional ownership, and higher litigation risk are more likely to guide analysts' forecasts downward to ensure reported earnings meet expectations at the earnings announcement, while firms with low value relevance of earnings are less likely to do so; and 4) firms with high institutional ownership and reliance on implicit claims with their stakeholders tend to exceed rather than fall short of expectations at the earnings announcement.
Author: Dawn A. Matsumoto Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Recent reports in the business press allege that managers take actions to avoid negative earnings surprises. I hypothesize that certain firm characteristics are associated with greater incentives to avoid negative surprises. I find that firms with higher transient institutional ownership, greater reliance on implicit claims with their stakeholders, and higher value relevance of earnings are more likely to meet or exceed expectations at the earnings announcement.I also examine whether firms manage earnings upward or guide analysts' forecasts downward to avoid missing expectations at the earnings announcement. I examine the relation between firm characteristics and the probability (conditional on meeting analysts' expectations) of having (1) positive abnormal accruals, and (2) forecasts that are lower than expected (using a model of prior earnings changes). Overall, the results suggest that both mechanisms play a role in avoiding negative earnings surprises.
Author: Susana Callao Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 27
Book Description
The aim of our study is to determine, within the area of Listed Spanish companies, whether analyst forecasts constitute an incentive to manage earnings (upwards to achieve them or downwards to avoid exceeding them) and whether this incentive acquires the same or different importance for the management of companies at different times. Using the approach of discretionary accruals to measure manipulation, the results show that earnings forecasted by analysts constitute an incentive to manage earnings and that this incentive is greater as the publication of earnings approaches. However, we do not find evidence of an incentive to manage earnings downwards in order not to exceed analyst forecasts, thereby avoiding subsequent forecasts that might be difficult to achieve.
Author: Phillip J. McKnight Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper addresses the issue of the relationship between financial analysts' forecasts and key governance mechanisms. We test the extent that the presence and structure of a firm's audit, remuneration and nomination committee affects both analysts' forecast errors and the dispersion of the errors. We argue that independent sub-committees are likely to reduce the management's incentive to adopt earnings management strategies that distort financial analysts' forecasts. After accounting for various control factors our initial results show that the presence of an audit, remuneration, and nomination committee reduces analysts forecast errors. We also find that independent audit, remuneration, and nomination committees lead to lower analyst forecast errors. The results suggest that the presence of the non-executive directors on the firm's sub-committees reduce dispersion in analysts' forecasts and therefore a firm's value trades nearer its fundamental value.
Author: Mei Feng Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
We document that, when revising their short-term earnings forecasts in response to management guidance, analysts wishing to curry favor with management weight the guidance more heavily than predicted based on the credibility and usefulness of the guidance. This overweighting of guidance is present prior to equity offerings and other events that could lead to investment banking business. Although analysts sacrifice their forecast accuracy by overweighting management guidance, they appear to benefit, on average, by subsequently gaining the underwriting business for their banks. Thus, while analysts wishing to please managers are optimistic in their long-term earnings forecasts, they take their cue from management when determining their short-term earnings forecasts.
Author: Tsahi Versano Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper analyzes a manager's optimal expectations management strategy in a setting in which the manager provides forecast guidance to an analyst both privately and publicly. Conventional wisdom suggests that managers use private communications with analysts and public earnings forecasts interchangeably to guide analysts' earnings forecasts downward toward lower earnings targets. Our analysis shows that in markets with rational investors, private and public guidance play very different roles in managing expectations and that managers benefit from downward guidance only in their private communication with analysts. In their public forecasts they benefit from introducing an upward bias. We explore how the effectiveness of the private and public channels in communicating information to analysts affects managers' incentive to engage in expectations management and provide a number of empirical predictions. Among other results, we show how reducing private communication between managers and analysts (through means such as Regulation Fair Disclosure) can increase price efficiency, weaken managers' motivation to engage in private, as well as public, expectations management, and increase managers' motivation to provide public disclosures.
Author: Kunio Ito Publisher: Springer ISBN: 4431547924 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 337
Book Description
Despite the globalization of accounting standards occurring through convergence to International Financial Reporting Standards, local accounting systems are deeply intertwined with each country’s unique institutions such as its corporate system, disclosure practices and enforcement mechanisms. First, this book empirically analyzes the effects of globalization and localization of accounting rules on corporate behavior such as earnings management, signaling, investment behavior and dividend payout policy. Second, the book unravels the economic consequences of disclosure based on the concept of self-disciplining enforcement such as management forecasts, environmental disclosures and risk disclosures by Japanese firms. This volume is a step forward in understanding the link between accounting and corporate behavior based on a new institutional accounting approach.
Author: Sebastian Gell Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3834939374 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 144
Book Description
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Author: Dawn A. Matsumoto
Author: Dawn A. Matsumoto
Author: Dawn A. Matsumoto
Author: Susana Callao
Author: Vahid Biglari
Author: Phillip J. McKnight
Author: Mei Feng
Author: Tsahi Versano
Author: Kunio Ito
Author: Mohamed Khairat Abdel-Gelil Gaber
Author: Sebastian Gell