Macroeconomic Volatility, Predictability and Uncertainty in the Great Moderation PDF Download

Author: Sean D. Campbell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 58

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Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199875510
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 732

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Book Description
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.

Author: Ruediger Bachmann
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0128234768
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 876

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Book Description
Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. - Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures - Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature - Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics

Author: Jonathan Heathcote
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437934919
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61

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Book Description
The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.

Author: David E. Rapach
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 044452942X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 691

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Book Description
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Author: N. Carnot
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230306446
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 516

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Book Description
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

Author: David Cobham
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139491253
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 468

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Book Description
There is now a remarkably strong consensus among academics and professional economists that central banks should adopt explicit inflation targets and that all key monetary policy decisions, especially those concerning interest rates, should be made with a view to ensuring that these targets are achieved. This book provides a comprehensive review of the experience of inflation targeting since its introduction in New Zealand in 1989 and looks in detail at what we can learn from the past twenty years and what challenges we may face in the future. Written by a distinguished team of academics and professional economists from central banks around the world, the book covers a wide range of issues including many that have arisen as a result of the recent financial crisis. It should be read by anyone concerned with better understanding inflation targeting and its past, present and future role within monetary policy.

Author: Ralf Brüggemann
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN: 3110510847
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 176

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Book Description
Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance. Economic policy makers base their decisions on business cycle forecasts, investment decisions of firms are based on demand forecasts, and portfolio managers try to outperform the market based on financial market forecasts. Forecasts extract relevant information from the past and help to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the future. The topic of this special issue of the Journal of Economics and Statistics is the theory and practise of forecasting and forecast evaluation and an overview of the state of the art of forecasting.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 1202

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Book Description

Author: James Feigenbaum
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437987435
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39

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Book Description
Studies the trend in household income uncertainty using a novel approach that measures income uncertainty as the variance of forecast errors at each future horizon separately without imposing parametric restrictions on the underlying income shocks. Household income uncertainty has risen significantly and persistently since the early 1970s. Their measure of near-future uncertainty in total family non-capital income rose 40% between 1971 and 2002. This rising uncertainty is likely due to the increase in variances of both persistent and transitory income shocks. The increase was most pronounced among single-earner households and high-income households. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.