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Author: Mikhail Chernov Publisher: ISBN: Category : Macroeconomics Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
We introduce a reduced-form modeling framework for mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross section of market prices. From the implied prepayment function, we find that prepayment rates are driven not only by interest rates, but also by two macroeconomic factors: turnover and rate response. Intuitively, turnover represents prepayments for exogenous reasons like employment-related moves, household income shocks, and foreclosures, while rate response reflects frictions faced by borrowers in refinancing into a lower rate. We find that the empirical turnover and rate response measures are both significantly related to macroeconomic measures, suggesting that these factors represent a source of systematic risk. Consistent with this, we find that implied prepayments are substantially higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant prepayment risk premia in mortgage-backed security prices. We analyze the properties of the prepayment risk premium and find that it is almost entirely due to compensation for turnover risk. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing Programs.
Author: Mikhail Chernov Publisher: ISBN: Category : Macroeconomics Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
We introduce a reduced-form modeling framework for mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross section of market prices. From the implied prepayment function, we find that prepayment rates are driven not only by interest rates, but also by two macroeconomic factors: turnover and rate response. Intuitively, turnover represents prepayments for exogenous reasons like employment-related moves, household income shocks, and foreclosures, while rate response reflects frictions faced by borrowers in refinancing into a lower rate. We find that the empirical turnover and rate response measures are both significantly related to macroeconomic measures, suggesting that these factors represent a source of systematic risk. Consistent with this, we find that implied prepayments are substantially higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant prepayment risk premia in mortgage-backed security prices. We analyze the properties of the prepayment risk premium and find that it is almost entirely due to compensation for turnover risk. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing Programs.
Author: Brett Radcliffe Dunn Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 162
Book Description
This dissertation focuses on a major challenge to asset pricing theory: the valuation of mortgage-backed securities. In the first chapter of this dissertation (with Mikhail Chernov and Francis A. Longstaff), we develop a three-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross-section of market prices. This model closely fits the cross-section of mortgage-backed security prices without needing to specify an econometric prepayment model. We find that implied prepayments are generally higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant macroeconomic-driven prepayment risk premiums in mortgage-backed security prices. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs. In the second chapter, I study the relationship between funding liquidity and the valuation of mortgage-backed securities. Most of the financing for mortgage-backed securities occurs through a trade known as a dollar roll, the simultaneous sale and purchase of forward contracts on mortgage-backed securities that is analogous to a repurchase agreement. I develop a four-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities that allows for the valuation of dollar rolls. Unlike previous models of the dollar roll, I allow for the possibility of a prepayment risk premium. I develop a new measure of mortgage specialness that is independent of prepayment risk premia and agency credit spreads. I find that specialness is related to measures of balance sheet constraints and primary dealer positions in mortgage-backed securities.
Author: Yanli Cheng Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
While option-theoretic models are widely used in valuation of other fixed-income instruments, their applications for the valuation of mortgage-backed securities face challenges. Mortgages are explicitly written with a call option, which allows mortgagors to prepay their mortgages any time before the maturity. The magnitude and timing of exercising the prepayment options are not purely driven by economic factors, but also the mortgagor's individual preferences and personal behaviours. This brings difficulties to valuing mortgage-backed securities with conventional models. In this thesis we aim to explore the prepayment risk caused uncertainties in valuation of mortgage-backed securities. We start with empirically examining an option-theoretic model proposed by Kalotay, Yang and Fabozzi (2004). This model has special features to treat borrower heterogeneity and suboptimal exercises of the prepayment options. Based on the empirical results, we propose to employ linear prepayment functions to model borrower heterogeneity. The new MBS valuation model with the integration of linear prepayment functions is also tested with empirical data. Our results suggest that mortgages with different coupon rates have different refinancing tendencies even towards the same market rate change. Therefore, assuming the same refinancing pattern to all classes of mortgages may lead to errors in pricing mortgages and MBSs. For mortgages with coupon rate below the prevailing refinancing rate (as proxied by the 30 year libor rate) plus the refinancing cost, a prepayment function with a low initial prepayment rate and a high slope will model the prepayments best. On the other hand, for mortgages with coupon rate above the current refinancing rate plus the refinancing cost, a prepayment function with a high initial prepayment and a mild slope will perform best. Meanwhile, refinancing burnout is also an important factor in modelling mortgage prepayment. Our results suggest that when the underlying mortgages are seasoned mortgages, especially when the prepayment option has been deep-in-the-money for a long time, the low initial prepayment high slope function will model their prepayments the best. Once these different refinancing tendencies are factored in the modelling of mortgage prepayment, the accuracy of the MBS valuation model is greatly improved.
Author: Frank J. Fabozzi Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118149297 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 358
Book Description
An up-to-date look at the latest innovations in mortgage-backed securities Since the last edition of Mortgage-Backed Securities was published over three years ago, much has changed in the structured credit market. Frank Fabozzi, Anand Bhattacharya, and William Berliner all have many years of experience working in the fixed-income securitization markets, and have witnessed many cycles of change in the mortgage and MBS sectors. And now, with the Second Edition of Mortgage-Backed Securities, they share their knowledge on many of the products and structuring innovations that have taken place since the financial crisis and fiscal reform. Written in a straightforward and accessible style, and containing numerous illustrations, this timely guide skillfully addresses the investment characteristics, creation, and analysis of mortgage-backed securities. Each chapter contains cutting-edge concepts that you'll need to understand in order to thrive within this arena. Discusses the dynamic interaction between the mortgage industry, home prices, and credit performance Addresses revised valuation techniques in which all non-agency MBS must be treated as credit pieces Examines the shift in this marketplace since the crisis and the impact on industry and investors Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Mortgage-Backed Securities, Second Edition offers you a realistic assessment of this field and outlines the products, structures, and analytical techniques you need to know about in this evolving arena.
Author: Andrew S. Davidson Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0199998167 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 465
Book Description
Valuation of mortgage-backed securities requires blending empirical analysis of borrower behavior and mathematical modeling of interest rates and home prices, with recognition of various prices of risk and uncertainty. This book offers a detailed description of the sophisticated theories and advanced methods used for the real-world valuation of MBS.
Author: Frank J. Fabozzi Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional ISBN: 0071476830 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 1270
Book Description
The definitive MBS guide, with fully updated material on the latest mortgage-backed products, methods, models, and portfolio strategies By providing hands-on information vital to market participants, previous editions of The Handbook of Mortgage-Backed Securities were instrumental in fueling the growth of the mortgage-backed securities market. The sixth edition contains all the elements that made previous editions so successful and influential, and provides you with more than 25 new chapters on topics including collateralized mortgage obligations, prepayment derivatives, loan level determinants of repayments, new approaches to MBS valuation, and a survey of non-U.S. mortgage rates.
Author: Mikhail Chernov
Author: Mikhail Chernov
Author: Brett Radcliffe Dunn
Author: Yanli Cheng
Author: Frank J. Fabozzi
Author: Eduardo S. Schwartz
Author: David G. Anderson
Author: Yong Chen
Author: Andrew S. Davidson
Author: 
Author: Frank J. Fabozzi