Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Lower Middle Income Countries PDF Download

Author: Md. Abdul Wadud
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

View

Book Description
The main objective of the study is to critically examine the macroeconomic determinants of economic growth of World Bank newly categorized lower middle income countries. In specific, the study try to find out the relationship between the key macroeconomic indicators namely foreign direct investment, current account balance, exports of goods and services, imports of goods and services, government total investment, inflation, total population, unemployment rate, life expectancy at birth, total remittances received and economic growth among lower middle income countries. To achieve the objective, the study employed panel data approach and run multiple regression analysis. The study use different type of regression model to describe the relationship and deployed Hausman Specification Test and Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects to find best model for estimation. After a rigorous analysis, the study select random effect model is the best model for our estimation. Empirical results show that current account balance, total investment, total population, life expectancy at birth and remittance received is proved to be significant in confidence level of five percent. It also deduced from study that export performance, import performance and inflation are found insignificant while FDI, interest rate and unemployment rate are found highly insignificant. Empirical results also suggest that export performance, total investment, inflation, total population, unemployment rate and remittance have positive coefficient on economic growth of lower middle income country.

Author: Mr.Shekhar Aiyar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484315804
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 64

View

Book Description
The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.

Author: Robert J. Barro
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262522540
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164

View

Book Description
Summarizes recent research from hundreds of empirical studies on economic growth across countries that have highlighted the correlation between growth and a variety of variables.

Author: Mr.Manuk Ghazanchyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513544209
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33

View

Book Description
This study examines the drivers of growth in Asian countries, with focus on the role of investment, the exchange rate regime, financial risk, and capital account openness. We use a panel data set of a sample of Asian countries over the period 1980 to 2012. Our results indicate that private and public investments are strong drivers of growth, while more limited evidence is found that reduced financial risk and higher foreign direct investment support growth. The exchange rate regime does not appear to be a strongly significant determinant of growth, but some specifications suggest that more flexible regimes are beneficial in this respect. Financial crises have a stronger dampening effect on growth in countries with more open capital accounts.

Author: Mr.Marco Arena
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498355269
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47

View

Book Description
Using a comprehensive database on bank credit, covering 135 developing countries over the period 1960–2011, we identify, document, and compare the macro-economic dynamics of credit booms across low- and middle-income countries. The results suggest that while the duration and magnitude of credit booms is similar across country groups, macro-economic dynamics differ somewhat in low-income countries. We further find that surges in capital inflows are associated with credit booms. Moreover, credit booms associated with banking crises exhibit distinct macroeconomic dynamics, while also reflecting a potentially large deviation of credit from country fundamentals. These results suggest that low-income countries should remain mindful of the inter-linkages between financial liberalization, increased cross-border banking activities, and rapid credit growth.

Author: Giovanni Andrea Cornia
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191016284
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 337

View

Book Description
Human Development is widely recognised as the overriding goal of development, yet its realization is challenged by growing inequality, macro-economic fluctuations, and recurrent financial crises. This edited collection reflects on the work of Richard Jolly and includes contributions from leading scholars of development, all of whom have worked with Richard Jolly at varying points in his distinguished career. The volume advances thinking in the area of Human Development by discussing the evolution of its conceptualization and the policy implications, and the achievements in related key areas such as education, social protection, and employment. It juxtaposes these theoretical and (at times) real life improvements with disturbing developments in terms of growing inequality and macro-economic instability. It documents the growing income inequality which has characterized both developing and developed countries. It shows that there has been a decline in some countries and identifies the policies adopted in these exceptional cases. It also shows also where and how public expenditure on Human Development in developing countries has been affected by the 2008 financial crisis and presents a new framework for a pro-growth pro-Human Development macro-economics, including suggestions for the countercyclical regulation of financial flows. The book also argues that a series of disruptive factors are nudging the innovation trajectory in new potentially pro-poor and pro-Human Development directions, especially if policies speed-up the diffusion of new efficient appropriate technologies in low and middle income economies.

Author: Hites Ahir
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513566601
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 76

View

Book Description
Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the deceleration in real GDP growth during the 2008 global financial crisis, LICs on average saw 4.5 percent of real GDP growth during 2000 to 2014, making progress in economic convergence toward higher-income countries. However, the commodity price collapse in 2014–15 hit many commodity-exporting LICs and highlighted their vulnerabilities due to the limited extent of economic diversification. Furthermore, LICs are currently facing a crisis like no other—COVID-19, which requires careful policymaking to save lives and livelihoods in LICs, informed by policy debate and thoughtful research tailored to the COVID-19 situation. There are also other challenges beyond COVID-19, such as climate change, high levels of public debt burdens, and persistent structural issues.

Author: Gonzalo Salinas
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Crecimiento economico
Languages : en
Pages : 50

View

Book Description
Abstract: The empirical study of the impact of trade liberalization has not convinced the skeptics about the economic gains after trade reforms. Some have even argued that trade reforms have led to economic collapse and to deindustrialization. Using a sample that excludes countries that were subject to major exogenous disruptions, the authors note that post-reform economic growth was 1.2 percentage points higher than before the reforms. This is remarkable considering that pre-reform periods were characterized by highly expansionary state policies and large external borrowing, and the crisis years that preceded trade liberalization in the comparisons are eliminated. Through multivariate fixed effects estimations the authors calculate that annual per capita GDP growth rates increased by up to 2.6 percentage points after the trade reforms, compared to a counterfactual that takes into consideration the evolution of several growth determinants. Moreover, trade liberalization has been followed by an acceleration of growth in investment, exports of goods and services, and manufacturing exports, and as opposed to common belief, outward orientation did not lead to significant deindustrialization and actually seems to have increased export diversification. Growth acceleration occurred irrespective of income per capita level and was quite significant in Sub-Saharan Africa. As expected, small countries benefited most from the reforms.

Author: Ms.Anne Epaulard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451849362
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 37

View

Book Description
This paper investigates the link between macroeconomic performance and the change in the poverty rate among 47 episodes of growth and 52 episodes of economic downturn in developing and transition economies. We show that, on average, (i) the greater the inequality, the lower the elasticity of poverty to growth, and the higher the mean income, the higher the elasticity; (ii) the country-specific elasticity is identical for episodes of economic growth and for episodes of economic downturn; and (iii) higher growth does not bring diminishing returns to poverty reduction. Moreover, we show that very high inflation is associated with a higher elasticity of the poverty rate to economic downturn, but at lower inflation, there is no relationship between inflation and the elasticity of the poverty rate to growth or recession. Trade openness and changes in the terms of trade explain part of the elasticity of the poverty rate to economic downturn.

Author: Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484394712
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60

View

Book Description
This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.