Long-term trends and interannual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific PDF Download

Author: J.C.L. CHAN
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Anthony Rocco Lupo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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During the last decade, there has been concern that the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) has increased. Also, climate models have shown varying results regarding the future occurrence and intensities of TC. Previous research from this group showed there is significant interannual and interdecadal variability in TC occurrence and intensity for some tropical ocean basins and sub-basins. This work examines global TC occurrence and intensity from 2010 to 2019 and compares this period to the same quantities from 1980 to 2009. The data used here are obtained from publicly available TC archives. Globally, the number of TC occurring over the latest decade is similar to the previous decade. However, while the 40-year trend shows an increase in TC, only intense hurricanes have shown an increase. The Atlantic Ocean and North Indian Ocean Basins show increases in TC activity, especially intense storms. The Southern Hemisphere and West Pacific Region show decreases in TC activity. In the West Pacific, intense TC did not increase, but the fraction of storms classified as intense increased. Only East Pacific TC activity showed no significant short- or long-term trends. Interannual and interdecadal variability in each sub-basin was found and there were some differences with previous work.

Author: Michael J. McPhaden
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119548128
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 528

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Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.

Author: Anthony Lupo
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 1838803610
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 160

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This book highlights some of the most recent research in the climatological behavior of tropical cyclones as well as the dynamics, predictability, and character of these storms as derived using remote sensing techniques. Also included in this book is a review of the interaction between tropical cyclones and coastal ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific and an evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in replicating the current climate using accumulated cyclone energy. The latter demonstrates how the climate may change in the future. This book can be a useful resource for those studying the character of these storms, especially those with the goal of anticipating their future occurrence in both the short and climatological range and their associated hazards.

Author: Johnny C L Chan
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814465828
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 445

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This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.

Author: Peng Wu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cyclones
Languages : en
Pages : 116

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Author: 張健緯
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
ISBN: 9781374748835
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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This dissertation, "Understanding and Forecasting Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific Ocean" by 張健緯, Kin-wai, Cheung, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3121510 Subjects: Cyclones - Tropics - Forecasting

Author: Kuo-Nan Liou
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812818901
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 497

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This book contains 22 peer-reviewed articles that cover a spectrum of contemporary subjects relevant to atmospheric sciences, with specific applications to the Asia-Pacific region. The majority of these papers consist of a review of a scientific sub-field in atmospheric sciences, while some contain original contributions. All of the accepted papers were subject to scientific reviews and revisions.The book is divided into 2 traditional fields in atmospheric sciences: atmospheric dynamics and meteorology; and atmospheric physics and chemistry. The authors of these papers are distinguished alumni of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the National Taiwan University, residing in the USA and Taiwan. This book is dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences that occurred in 2004.Papers in atmospheric dynamics and meteorology cover the following subjects: El Ni¤o/Southern Oscillation, air/sea interactions, convection in the tropics, meiyu frontal systems, tropical cyclones/typhoons, data assimilations, and mesoscale modeling. In atmospheric physics and chemistry, subjects range from aerosols/clouds interactions, heat budgets in the context of air/sea interactions, atmospheric radiative transfer, remote sensing of the oceans, Asian dust outbreaks and clouds, reviews of cloud microphysics and urban ozone formations, to a satellite GPS system for typhoon studies and weather predictions.

Author: Pao-Shin Chu
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108754392
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 321

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This book presents a comprehensive summary of research on tropical cyclone variability at various time scales, from intraseasonal and interannual to interdecadal and centennial. It covers the fundamental theory, statistics and numerical modelling techniques used when considering climate variability in relation to tropical cyclone activity. Major climate oscillations including the Madden-Julian, El Niño, Atlantic Meridional Mode, and Pacific Decadal oscillations are covered, and their impacts on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are discussed. Hurricane landfalls in the United States, Caribbean and East Asia are also considered. Climate models and numerical simulations are used to show how prediction models of tropical cyclones are developed, while looking to the future, particular attention is paid to predicting how tropical cyclones will change in response to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. This book ideal for researchers and practitioners in atmospheric science, climatology, oceanography and civil and environmental engineering.

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 187

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As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.