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Author: N. Gregory Mankiw Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
The relationship between long-term and short-term interest rates is crucial for macroeconomic policy evaluation. Since the short-term interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money, it is widely believed that the Federal Reserve has more direct control over short-term than over long-term interest rates in the United States. Yet if capital is costly to adjust or takes time to place into use, investment decisions may depend on long-term interest rates. The term structure of interest rates thus appears central to the monetary transmission mechanism. Unfortunately, the determinants of the term structure remain poorly understood.This paper uses data from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, and Germany to examine various hypotheses regarding the term structure. My goal is to see whether the experiences of these four countries since 1960 can help provide a general explanation of the term structure. In the United States many observers believe the large variations in the long-term interest rate since 1979 are not adequately explained by movements in short-term interest rates. Of particular interest is whether the experience of the United States in these and earlier years merely reflects an unusual historical episode. If it does, it would be inappropriate to draw any general conclusions from this experience or to extrapolate this experience into the future.This study is in part motivated by apparent differences between recent experience in the United States and experience elsewhere. In 1985, the rate on long-term government bonds in the United States exceeded the rate on three-month Treasury bills by more than 300 basis points. By contrast, the long-term interest rate in the United Kingdom was more than 100 basis points below the short-term interest rate. Interpreting such divergent national experiences is the primary purpose of studying the term structure more generally.
Author: N. Gregory Mankiw Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
The relationship between long-term and short-term interest rates is crucial for macroeconomic policy evaluation. Since the short-term interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money, it is widely believed that the Federal Reserve has more direct control over short-term than over long-term interest rates in the United States. Yet if capital is costly to adjust or takes time to place into use, investment decisions may depend on long-term interest rates. The term structure of interest rates thus appears central to the monetary transmission mechanism. Unfortunately, the determinants of the term structure remain poorly understood.This paper uses data from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, and Germany to examine various hypotheses regarding the term structure. My goal is to see whether the experiences of these four countries since 1960 can help provide a general explanation of the term structure. In the United States many observers believe the large variations in the long-term interest rate since 1979 are not adequately explained by movements in short-term interest rates. Of particular interest is whether the experience of the United States in these and earlier years merely reflects an unusual historical episode. If it does, it would be inappropriate to draw any general conclusions from this experience or to extrapolate this experience into the future.This study is in part motivated by apparent differences between recent experience in the United States and experience elsewhere. In 1985, the rate on long-term government bonds in the United States exceeded the rate on three-month Treasury bills by more than 300 basis points. By contrast, the long-term interest rate in the United Kingdom was more than 100 basis points below the short-term interest rate. Interpreting such divergent national experiences is the primary purpose of studying the term structure more generally.
Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Publisher: ISBN: 9780894991967 Category : Banks and Banking Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.
Author: Andrew L. Yarrow Publisher: Brookings Institution Press ISBN: 0815732759 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 340
Book Description
The story of men who are hurting—and hurting America by their absence Man Out describes the millions of men on the sidelines of life in the United States. Many of them have been pushed out of the mainstream because of an economy and society where the odds are stacked against them; others have chosen to be on the outskirts of twenty-first-century America. These men are disconnected from work, personal relationships, family and children, and civic and community life. They may be angry at government, employers, women, and "the system" in general—and millions of them have done time in prison and have cast aside many social norms. Sadly, too many of these men are unsure what it means to be a man in contemporary society. Wives or partners reject them; children are estranged from them; and family, friends, and neighbors are embarrassed by them. Many have disappeared into a netherworld of drugs, alcohol, poor health, loneliness, misogyny, economic insecurity, online gaming, pornography, other off-the-grid corners of the internet, and a fantasy world of starting their own business or even writing the Great American novel. Most of the men described in this book are poorly educated, with low incomes and often with very few prospects for rewarding employment. They are also disproportionately found among millennials, those over 50, and African American men. Increasingly, however, these lost men are discovered even in tony suburbs and throughout the nation. It is a myth that men on the outer corners of society are only lower-middle-class white men dislocated by technology and globalization. Unlike those who primarily blame an unjust economy, government policies, or a culture sanctioning "laziness," Man Out explores the complex interplay between economics and culture. It rejects the politically charged dichotomy of seeing such men as either victims or culprits. These men are hurting, and in turn they are hurting families and hurting America. It is essential to address their problems. Man Out draws on a wide range of data and existing research as well as interviews with several hundred men, women, and a wide variety of economists and other social scientists, social service providers and physicians, and with employers, through a national online survey and in-depth fieldwork in several communities.
Author: Michael D. Bordo Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226066959 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 545
Book Description
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Author: Mr.William Lee Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 145185465X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
This paper assesses the relative importance of alternative explanations for the rise in long-term interest rates in the United States from October 1993 to April 1994. Standard econometric models of the term structure are shown to have a structural break in the early 1980s. An important reason for this change in the traditional term structure relationship appears to be an increase in the responsiveness of long-term rates to changes in the stance of monetary policy. Augmented term structure models that explicitly incorporate the role of monetary policy in determining the level of long-term rates are then constructed. These models track variations in the long-term rate better than traditional term structure models, but still leave a significant fraction of the recent increase in long-term rates unexplained.
Author: Daryl Watkins Publisher: ISBN: 9781634837484 Category : Interest rates Languages : en Pages : 93
Book Description
The long-term interest rate is a central variable in the macroeconomy. It matters to borrowers looking to start a business or purchase a home; to lenders weighing the risks and rewards of extending credit; to savers preparing for college or retirement; and to policymakers gauging the state of the economy and financing government expenditure. The global financial crisis and the aggressive policy response pushed long-term interest rates in the United States and in many advanced economies to historically low levels. But today's low-rate environment is not just a cyclical story. Interest rates had been falling worldwide for nearly twenty years before the crisis. Despite the magnitude and persistence of the secular downtrend, the explanation for the decline is one of the most vexing questions faced by macroeconomists today. The future path of interest rates is even less clear. This book surveys the recent thinking on the many drivers of long-term interest rates in recent decades and going forward. In addition, this book provides a speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Bernanke at the Sandridge Lecture which discusses the global saving glut and the U.S. current deficit.
Author: John Y. Campbell Publisher: ISBN: Category : Interest rates Languages : en Pages : 58
Book Description
Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by adistributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate "overreacts" to the short rate. This paper presents aunified taxonomy of risk premia, or deviations from the expectations theory. This enables the hypothesis of overreaction to be formally stated. It is shown that, if anything, the long rate has underreacted to the short rate. However, the independent movement of the long rate is primarily responsible for the failure of the expectations theory.
Author: Sidney Homer Publisher: New Brunswick, N.J. : Rutgers University Press ISBN: 9780813508405 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 640
Book Description
"A History of Interest Rates, Fourth Edition presents a readable account of interest rate trends and lending practices spanning over four millennia of economic history. Filled with in-depth insights and illustrative charts and tables, this unique resource provides a broad perspective on interest rate movements - from which financial professionals can evaluate contemporary interest rate and monetary developments - and applies analytical tools, such as yield-curve averaging and decennial averaging, to the data available." "A History of Interest Rates, Fourth Edition offers a highly detailed analysis of money markets and borrowing practices in major economies. It places the rates and corresponding credit forms in context by summarizing the political and economic events and financial customs of particular times and places." "To help you stay as current as possible, this revised and updated Fourth Edition contains a new chapter of contemporary material as well as added discussions of interest rate developments over the past ten years."--BOOK JACKET.
Author: N. Gregory Mankiw
Author: N. Gregory Mankiw
Author: Frank Walter Paish
Author: Ary Lans Bovenberg
Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Author: Andrew L. Yarrow
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Author: Mr.William Lee
Author: Daryl Watkins
Author: John Y. Campbell
Author: Sidney Homer