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Author: Silvia Sgherri Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN: 9781451862478 Category : Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
Using unobserved stochastic components and Kalman filter techniques, the paper assesses the relative importance of transitory and permanent shifts in Italian real GDP within a production function framework. Evidence suggests that the increase in hours worked that has accompanied pension and labor market reforms accounts for the bulk of low-frequency variation in growth, but points to factor utilization as the main driver of business cycle fluctuations. In contrast with the predictions of standard Real Business Cycle models, a positive shock to the underlying rate of total factor productivity growth generates a slight decline in hours, whereas the response of output to the same shock is found to be positive.
Author: Silvia Sgherri Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN: 9781451862478 Category : Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
Using unobserved stochastic components and Kalman filter techniques, the paper assesses the relative importance of transitory and permanent shifts in Italian real GDP within a production function framework. Evidence suggests that the increase in hours worked that has accompanied pension and labor market reforms accounts for the bulk of low-frequency variation in growth, but points to factor utilization as the main driver of business cycle fluctuations. In contrast with the predictions of standard Real Business Cycle models, a positive shock to the underlying rate of total factor productivity growth generates a slight decline in hours, whereas the response of output to the same shock is found to be positive.
Author: Ms.Silvia Sgherri Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455209449 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
Italy’s deep-rooted structural problems resulted in an unsatisfactory productivity performance and a dismal growth over the last 15 years. The global financial crisis has exacerbated these long-standing weaknesses, taking a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. With output back to its end-2001 level, Italy’s output losses associated with the crisis have been, thus far, about 132 billion of 2000 euro (around 10 percent of precrisis 1998 - 2004 real GDP). About three quarters of these losses are estimated to be due to a shortfall in potential output. Potential output is not expected to rebound to its precrisis trend over the medium term, even though growth is projected to do so within the next two years. In the short-run, the decline in output is mainly accounted for by a collapse in productivity; in the medium term, employment and capital are also likely to be affected, with implications for the longer-term growth and fiscal outlook.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513536990 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Mr.Pau Rabanal Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451875657 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Author: Stephen Broadberry Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1139448358 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 363
Book Description
This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455207624 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 133
Book Description
The global crisis had a severe impact on the Italian economy despite elements of strength such as high private savings, low private indebtedness, and a resilient financial system. Executive Directors decided that the public sector wage bill should remain a key element of the consolidation strategy, and close monitoring of subnational public finances should be continued. They commended the authorities for the progress made in structural reforms but stressed that a more ambitious program of reforms needed to be pursued to address Italy’s growth potential.
Author: N. Carnot Publisher: Springer ISBN: 0230306446 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 516
Book Description
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451852576 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
Spain has the most serious and persistent unemployment problem in Europe, with an unemployment rate that reached 24.6 percent in early 1994. This paper explores the characteristics of this unemployment problem, its causes, and provides a brief discussion of recent labor market reform measures and their likely Impact. A demographic shift in recent years has produced a large rise in female labor force participation and a decrease in agricultural jobs to which the economy has been unable to adjust. The effects of generous unemployment benefits and the large underground economy may explain 6–12 percentage points of the resulting unemployment, but the remainder must be explained by failures and rigidities in the labor market. The paper presents econometric evidence that unemployment displays hysteresis, and that wages are not responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. This evidence supports the claim that insider-outsider factors and rigidities in the legal structure of the labor market are responsible for much of the high unemployment rate. Recent reforms have improved the functioning of the labor market, but they are unlikely to be sufficient to reduce unemployment to single digit rates without further action.
Author: Silvia Sgherri
Author: Silvia Sgherri
Author: Ms.Silvia Sgherri
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Author: Mr.Pau Rabanal
Author: Stephen Broadberry
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: N. Carnot
Author: 
Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Author: Vera Zamagni