Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan PDF Download

Author: Margherita Calderone
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 78

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Book Description
Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789276534822
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
This report explores the association between climate anomalies, population dynamics, conflict and organised violence in Sudan and South Sudan, at the sub-national level and for the years 1989-2015. The analyses are conducted using a spatial approach and with geocoded information on organized violence events, climate anomalies and population dynamics. Our results indicate a positive correlation of temperature anomalies with conflict and organised violence at the local level. Precipitation anomalies also positively correlate with organised violence, but to a lesser extent than temperature anomalies. We further explore the climate-security nexus in rural and urban environments in the two countries. Urban areas appear more vulnerable to the risk of organised violence, with the latter positively associated with temperature and precipitation anomalies, as well as with positive net migration. In less densely populated areas, violence is associated with climate anomaly values, though the correlation is lower than in densely populated areas. These results are also confirmed by the analysis based on the number of violent events. Finally, we observe a strong temporal dependence of violent events at the sub-national level.

Author: Samuel Totten
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135015341
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 303

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Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive overview of the embattled Nuba Mountains of South Kordofan, where the Government of Sudan committed "genocide by attrition" in the early 1990s and where violent conflict reignited again in 2011. A range of contributors – scholars, journalists, and activists – trace the genesis of the crisis from colonial era neglect to institutionalized insecurity, emphasizing the failure of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement to address the political and social concerns of the Nuba people. This volume is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the nuances of the contemporary crisis in the Nuba Mountains and explore its potential solutions.

Author: John Young
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN: 1786993767
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 265

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Book Description
A mere two years after achieving independence, South Sudan in 2013 descended into violent civil war, refuting US government claims that the country's succession was a major foreign policy success and would end endemic conflict. Worse was to follow when the international community declared famine in 2017. In the first book-length study of the South Sudan civil war, John Young draws on his close but critical relationship with the rebel SPLM-IO leadership to reveal the true dynamics of the conflict, and exposes how the South Sudanese state was in crisis long before the outbreak of war. With insider knowledge of the histories and motivations of the rebellion's chief protagonists, Young argues considerable responsibility for the present state of South Sudan must be laid at the door of the US-led peace process. Linking the role of the international community with the country's opposition politics, South Sudan's Civil War is an essential guide to the causes and consequences of the violence that has engulfed one of Africa's most troubled nations.

Author: United Nations;World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464811865
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 415

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Book Description
Violent conflicts today are complex and increasingly protracted, involving more nonstate groups and regional and international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—the horizon set by the international community for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals—more than half of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence. Information and communication technology, population movements, and climate change are also creating shared risks that must be managed at both national and international levels. Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-up system for preventive action would save between US$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which could be reinvested in reducing poverty and improving the well-being of populations. The study aims to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomacy, mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflicts from becoming violent. It stresses the importance of grievances related to exclusion—from access to power, natural resources, security and justice, for example—that are at the root of many violent conflicts today. Based on a review of cases in which prevention has been successful, the study makes recommendations for countries facing emerging risks of violent conflict as well as for the international community. Development policies and programs must be a core part of preventive efforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusive solutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomic policies, institutional reform, and redistributive policies are required. Inclusion is key, and preventive action needs to adopt a more people-centered approach that includes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancing the participation of women and youth in decision making is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well as long-term policies to address the aspirations of women and young people.

Author: J. Andrew Plowman
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781523630097
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 172

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Book Description
In "Climate Change and Conflict Prevention: Lessons from Darfur," J. Andrew Plowman uses the Darfur conflict as a case study to examine how the effects of climate change might lead to future violent conflicts, and assesses the best way to prevent these conflicts. In his research, Plowman reviews the environmental security literature and applies events from Darfur to climate change models. This research suggests that climate change is likely to increase the potential for intrastate and communal conflicts, as populations adjust to changes in the environmental systems that support their livelihoods. Ultimately, Plowman's examination of the Darfur conflict recommends a focus on structural conflict prevention through building adaptability to climate change and through the strengthening of institutions, particularly in fragile states.

Author: Dan Smith
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781898702900
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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Book Description
Climate change is upon us and its physical effects have started to unfold. That is the broad scientific consensus expressed in the Fourth Assessment Review of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. This report takes this finding as its starting point and looks at the social and human consequences that are likely to ensue--particularly the risks of conflict and instability.

Author: Ken Conca
Publisher: Woodrow Wilson Center Press
ISBN: 9780801871931
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 268

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Book Description
Eight contributions written by professors of political science, government, and politics as well as researchers and program directors for environmental change, energy, and security projects provide insight into the process of environmental peacemaking, based on their experiences in a variety of international regions. An initial chapter makes a case for the process; successive chapters address the Baltic, South Asia, the Aral Sea basin, southern Africa, the Caspian Sea, and the US-Mexican border. Annotation (c)2003 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com).

Author: Edoardo Borgomeo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464819432
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 173

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Book Description
South Sudan is the third most vulnerable country to climate change in the world, and one of the most politically fragile. Rising from the Depths illustrates how South Sudan can leverage its water resources to prepare for climate change and advance national peace and development.

Author: Jürgen Scheffran
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642286267
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 869

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Book Description
Severe droughts, damaging floods and mass migration: Climate change is becoming a focal point for security and conflict research and a challenge for the world’s governance structures. But how severe are the security risks and conflict potentials of climate change? Could global warming trigger a sequence of events leading to economic decline, social unrest and political instability? What are the causal relationships between resource scarcity and violent conflict? This book brings together international experts to explore these questions using in-depth case studies from around the world. Furthermore, the authors discuss strategies, institutions and cooperative approaches to stabilize the climate-society interaction.