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Author: Enrico Zio Publisher: FonCSI ISBN: Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 61
Book Description
This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Author: Enrico Zio Publisher: FonCSI ISBN: Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 61
Book Description
This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Author: Terje Aven Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118763068 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 152
Book Description
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Author: Aram Hajian Publisher: Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH ISBN: 3832547347 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 176
Book Description
In September 2018, researchers from Armenia, Chile, Germany and Japan met in Yerevan to discuss technologies with applications in Smart Cities, Data Science and Information-Theoretic Approaches for Smart Systems, Technical Challenges for Smart Environments, and Smart Human Centered Computing. This book presents their contributions to the CODASSCA 2018 workshop on Collaborative Technologies and Data Science in Smart City Applications, a cutting-edge topic in Computer Science today.
Author: Diego Galar Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000518264 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 491
Book Description
Maintenance combines various methods, tools, and techniques in a bid to reduce maintenance costs while increasing the reliability, availability, and security of equipment. Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is one such method, and prognostics forms a key element of a CBM program based on mathematical models for predicting remaining useful life (RUL). Prognostics and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation: Predicting with Confidence compares the techniques and models used to estimate the RUL of different assets, including a review of the relevant literature on prognostic techniques and their use in the industrial field. This book describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets backed up by appropriate case studies. FEATURES Presents a compendium of RUL estimation methods and technologies used in predictive maintenance Describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets Includes a comprehensive compilation of methods from model-based and data-driven to hybrid Discusses the benchmarking of RUL estimation methods according to accuracy and uncertainty, depending on the target application, the type of asset, and the forecast performance expected Contains a toolset of methods and a way of deployment aimed at a versatile audience This book is aimed at professionals, senior undergraduates, and graduate students in all interdisciplinary engineering streams that focus on prognosis and maintenance.
Author: Jingzheng Ren Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030673766 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 283
Book Description
This book presents various multi-criteria analysis methods for sustainability-oriented analysis and decision-making for energy systems, under various different conditions and scenarios. It presents methodologies to answer the questions relating to which of the options are the most sustainable among the alternatives, and how multi-criteria decision analysis methods can be used to select the most sustainable energy systems. A systematic innovative methodological framework is presented, which enables the most appropriate energy system to be selected under different conditions including: Scientific decision support tools for sustainable energy system selection; Fuzzy, grey, and rough sets based multi-criteria decision analysis; Decision-making models under uncertainties; and The combination of life cycle thinking and multi-criteria decision analysis This book is of interest to researchers, engineers, decision makers, and postgraduate students within the field of energy systems, sustainability, and multi-criteria decision analysis.
Author: Alastair Gray Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0199227284 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 326
Book Description
This book provides the reader with a comprehensive set of instructions and examples of how to perform an economic evaluation of a health intervention, focusing solely on cost-effectiveness analysis in healthcare.
Author: Babek Erdebilli Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030988724 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 215
Book Description
Using numerical examples to illustrate their concepts and results, this book examines recently developed fuzzy multi-criteria methods, such as Intuitionistic Fuzzy TOPSIS, Intuitionistic Fuzzy TOPSIS & DEA-AHP, Intuitionistic VIKOR, Pythagorean WASPAS, Pythagorean ENTROPI, Hesitant CBD, Hesitant MABAC, Triangular EDAS, Triangular PROMETHEE, q-Rung Orthopair COPRAS, and Fuzzy Type – 2 ELECTRE. Each chapter covers practical applications in addition to fresh developments and results. Given its structure and scope, the book can be used as a textbook in graduate courses on operations research and industrial engineering. It also offers a valuable resource for scientists working in a range of disciplines that require multi-criteria decision making.
Author: Enrico Zio Publisher: FonCSI ISBN: Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
The authors propose a method for assessing the performance of a maintenance policy whilst accounting for uncertainty in various parameters of the degradation model. The method is appropriate for the representation and propagation of epistemic uncertainty which is elicited from an expert, who can provide a family of confidence intervals for each uncertain parameter. Information elicited from the expert is described using possibility distributions and propagated through the degradation model using fuzzy random variables and the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence. In classical approaches to uncertainty propagation based on probability theory, probability distributions are used to represent information obtained from experts. However, expert judgment is often expressed using imprecise linguistic statements, and the imposition of specific probability distributions over-constrains this uncertain information in a arbitrary and unjustified manner. Possibility theory allows the epistemic uncertainty arising from expert opinion to be represented in an arguably more rigorous manner, without introducing additional bias. A practical case study concerning the maintenance of a check valve of a turbo-pump lubricating system in a nuclear power plant illustrates the method. A rupture failure model caused by fatigue is modeled, and a Condition-Based Maintenance policy is applied to the component over a fixed time horizon. The performance of the maintenance policy is assessed in terms of cost and component unavailability.
Author: Enrico Zio Publisher: FonCSI ISBN: Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 69
Book Description
The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented: a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature; assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor; an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.
Author: Enrico Zio
Author: Enrico Zio
Author: Enrico Zio
Author: Terje Aven
Author: Aram Hajian
Author: Diego Galar
Author: Jingzheng Ren
Author: Alastair Gray
Author: Babek Erdebilli
Author: Enrico Zio
Author: Enrico Zio