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Author: Ronald Gauch Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1402089074 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 290
Book Description
The truth is, few people know the first thing about clinical research. The public reads about a medical research project that announces unbelievable results for a miraculous drug. Some years later, another investigation completely wipes out those initial favorable findings. Hormones Cut Women’s Risk of Heart Disease (San Francisco Chronicle, 1994) Hormones Don’t Protect Women from Heart Disease, Study Says (Washington Post, 2001) The people are confused because we do not understand the process behind these conflicting results. Our health, and in fact, our very lives are dependent on clinical trials, but we know little about them. This book explains the issues the public needs to be aware of when it comes to clinical research. It uncovers the problems in medical investigations that can not be overcome no matter how much care and diligence medical researchers bring to a research project. The basic premise that drives the writing is that it is impossible for medical researchers to guarantee that they can get all the right answers from a single study. No matter how good the investigators are, no matter how well a study is planned, no matter how carefully the plans are executed and no matter how conscientiously the results are analyzed and interpreted – the answer may still be wrong. The deck is stacked against medical researchers and the public – you – should be skeptical of the results no matter how impressive they seem on the surface.
Author: Ronald Gauch Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1402089074 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 290
Book Description
The truth is, few people know the first thing about clinical research. The public reads about a medical research project that announces unbelievable results for a miraculous drug. Some years later, another investigation completely wipes out those initial favorable findings. Hormones Cut Women’s Risk of Heart Disease (San Francisco Chronicle, 1994) Hormones Don’t Protect Women from Heart Disease, Study Says (Washington Post, 2001) The people are confused because we do not understand the process behind these conflicting results. Our health, and in fact, our very lives are dependent on clinical trials, but we know little about them. This book explains the issues the public needs to be aware of when it comes to clinical research. It uncovers the problems in medical investigations that can not be overcome no matter how much care and diligence medical researchers bring to a research project. The basic premise that drives the writing is that it is impossible for medical researchers to guarantee that they can get all the right answers from a single study. No matter how good the investigators are, no matter how well a study is planned, no matter how carefully the plans are executed and no matter how conscientiously the results are analyzed and interpreted – the answer may still be wrong. The deck is stacked against medical researchers and the public – you – should be skeptical of the results no matter how impressive they seem on the surface.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: Random House Trade ISBN: 059324365X Category : Languages : en Pages : 1873
Book Description
The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks ISBN: 0812979680 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 546
Book Description
Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call “efficient” not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear. Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb’s message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it. Praise for Antifragile “Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.”—The Economist “A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.”—Newsweek
Author: the late Theodore Eisenberg Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing ISBN: 0857932586 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 506
Book Description
Contemporary law and economics has greatly expanded its scope of inquiry as well as its sphere of influence. By focussing specifically on a comparative approach, this Handbook offers new insights for developing current law and economics research. It also provides stimuli for further research, exploring the idea that the comparative method offers a valuable way to enrich law and economics scholarship. With contributions from leading scholars from around the world, the Handbook sets the context by examining the past, present and future of comparative law and economics before addressing this approach to specific issues within the fields of intellectual property, competition, contracts, torts, judicial behaviour, tax, property law, energy markets, regulation and environmental agreements. This topical Handbook will be of great interest and value to scholars and postgraduate students of law and economics, looking for new directions in their research. It will also be a useful reference to policymakers and those working at an institutional level.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: Random House ISBN: 0812997697 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 1253
Book Description
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.
Author: Neil J. Smelser Publisher: Univ of California Press ISBN: 0520273567 Category : Education Languages : en Pages : 434
Book Description
"Usable Social Science represents a remarkable collaboration between Neil J. Smelser, one of America’s most distinguished sociologists, and John Reed, a highly successful member of corporate America. Together, they accomplish an even more remarkable feat of making accumulated social science knowledge accessible to non-academics while, at the same time, making an academic contribution to the social sciences by reviewing the history, accumulated findings, and conceptual approaches in key areas of specialization in sociology and elsewhere in the social sciences."—Jonathan H. Turner, University Professor & Distinguished Professor of Sociology, University of California, Riverside. “This book is an ambitious project to provide the public with a review of the available and practicable knowledge for decision-making people (and who is not that today?) that the social sciences have produced over the last 250 years or so. Typically, such efforts are bound to fail. But this project is a full success, keeping its promise to present knowledge in an understandable and exciting way. The language is charming and the elegant prose is the product of a fluent, transparent style. In short: a must read!”—Hans-Peter Mueller, Professor of sociology, Humboldt-University of Berlin.
Author: O. S. Miettinen Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9048195012 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
‘Clinical epidemiology’ is now widely promoted and taught as a ‘basic science’ of Evidence-Based Medicine, of clinical EBM to be specific. This book, however, is mostly about that which Miettinen takes to be the necessary substitute for this now-so-fashionable subject – namely, Theory of Clinical Medicine together with its subordinate Theory of Clinical Research. The leit motif in all of this is Miettinen’s perception of the need, and opportunity, to bring major improvements into clinical medicine in this Information Age, now that theoretical progress has made feasible the development of practice-guiding Expert Systems for it. Parts of this text constitute essential reading for whoever is expected, or otherwise inclined, to study – or teach – ‘clinical epidemiology,’ and the same is true of those who set policy for the education of future clinicians; but practically all of it is essential reading for future – and current – academics in the various disciplines of clinical medicine. After all, the text is the result of a concentrated effort, over a half-century no less, to really understand both clinical and community medicine and the research to advance the knowledge-base of these. Research epidemiologists, too, will find this text interesting and instructive.
Author: Christopher T Robertson Publisher: Academic Press ISBN: 0128026332 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 390
Book Description
What information should jurors have during court proceedings to render a just decision? Should politicians know who is donating money to their campaigns? Will scientists draw biased conclusions about drug efficacy when they know more about the patient or study population? The potential for bias in decision-making by physicians, lawyers, politicians, and scientists has been recognized for hundreds of years and drawn attention from media and scholars seeking to understand the role that conflicts of interests and other psychological processes play. However, commonly proposed solutions to biased decision-making, such as transparency (disclosing conflicts) or exclusion (avoiding conflicts) do not directly solve the underlying problem of bias and may have unintended consequences. Robertson and Kesselheim bring together a renowned group of interdisciplinary scholars to consider another way to reduce the risk of biased decision-making: blinding. What are the advantages and limitations of blinding? How can we quantify the biases in unblinded research? Can we develop new ways to blind decision-makers? What are the ethical problems with withholding information from decision-makers in the course of blinding? How can blinding be adapted to legal and scientific procedures and in institutions not previously open to this approach? Fundamentally, these sorts of questions—about who needs to know what—open new doors of inquiry for the design of scientific research studies, regulatory institutions, and courts. The volume surveys the theory, practice, and future of blinding, drawing upon leading authors with a diverse range of methodologies and areas of expertise, including forensic sciences, medicine, law, philosophy, economics, psychology, sociology, and statistics. - Introduces readers to the primary policy issue this book seeks to address: biased decision-making. - Provides a focus on blinding as a solution to bias, which has applicability in many domains. - Traces the development of blinding as a solution to bias, and explores the different ways blinding has been employed. - Includes case studies to explore particular uses of blinding for statisticians, radiologists, and fingerprint examiners, and whether the jurors and judges who rely upon them will value and understand blinding.
Author: Barney Saltzberg Publisher: Workman Publishing ISBN: 076115728X Category : Juvenile Nonfiction Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
A life lesson that all parents want their children to learn: It’s OK to make a mistake. In fact, hooray for mistakes! A mistake is an adventure in creativity, a portal of discovery. A spill doesn’t ruin a drawing—not when it becomes the shape of a goofy animal. And an accidental tear in your paper? Don’t be upset about it when you can turn it into the roaring mouth of an alligator. An award winning, best-selling, one-of-a-kind interactive book, Beautiful Oops! shows young readers how every mistake is an opportunity to make something beautiful. A singular work of imagination, creativity, and paper engineering, Beautiful Oops! is filled with pop-ups, lift-the-flaps, tears, holes, overlays, bends, smudges, and even an accordion “telescope”—each demonstrating the magical transformation from blunder to wonder.
Author: Ronald Gauch
Author: Ronald Gauch
Author: Dr David Wilkinson
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author: the late Theodore Eisenberg
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Author: Neil J. Smelser
Author: O. S. Miettinen
Author: Christopher T Robertson
Author: Barney Saltzberg