Is There Excess Co-movement of Primary Commodity Prices? PDF Download

Author: Theodosios B. Palaskas
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Modelos econometricos
Languages : en
Pages : 46

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Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333486
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Author: Matthias Kalkuhl
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319282018
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 620

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This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Author: American Bar Association. House of Delegates
Publisher: American Bar Association
ISBN: 9781590318737
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 216

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Book Description
The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.

Author: Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484326091
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 123

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Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.

Author: Walter C. Labys
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351917080
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 247

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Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Author: Stephan Pfaffenzeller
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 131774537X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 167

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Book Description
Our post-industrialised global economy has achieved spectacular success and pushed back poverty to an extent previously thought impossible. This success is ultimately based on the continued supply of both renewable and non-renewable resources. Will this supply of primary commodities remain sufficient to support global economic growth? Why are the gains for countries specialising on commodity production often so limited? Can commodity dependent countries diversify into other economic activities? Primary Commodities and Economic Development addresses the changing position of primary commodities in the world economy and investigates their importance for commodity exporting under-developed countries. The book commences with a review of the theoretical foundations for inter-dependence between commodity specialisation and economic underdevelopment. Having related the role of commodity exports and the commodity terms of trade to growth models relevant to developing economies, the discussion shifts to an in-depth review of the statistical properties of the commodity terms of trade. The review of commodity price trends at the global level is then rounded off with a series of country case studies showing the concrete threats and opportunities surrounding commodity specialization. This book will be of essential reading for those with an interest in development economics and international economics, as well as for scholars of natural resource and agricultural economics.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475507038
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 299

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Book Description
The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Author: Tahsin Saadi Sedik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455211796
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21

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Book Description
This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is the key factor. The empirical results show that while advanced economies account for more than half of global consumption, emerging economies make up the bulk of the incremental change in demand, thereby having a greater weight in commodity price formation. The results also show that the shift in the composition of aggregate commodity demand is a recent phenomenon.

Author: L. Alan Winters
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521385503
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 334

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Book Description
Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.