Investment and Expectations in the U.S. Farm Sector PDF Download

Author: Doo Bong Han
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 280

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Author: Randy Schnepf
Publisher: Createspace Independent Pub
ISBN: 9781480174030
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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Book Description
According to USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS), national net farm income—a key indicator of U.S. farm well-being—is forecast at a record $122.2 billion in 2012, up 3.7% from last year's record. Record gross revenues from crop sales (forecast at $222.1 billion), coupled with record revenues (forecast at $34.1 billion) from farm-related income—a category that includes crop insurance indemnity payments as well as income from custom work, machine hire, etc.—pushed total gross cash income to a record $433.6 billion (up 5.5%). This more than offset flat revenues from livestock markets ($165.8 billion), and a 6.6% increase in input costs (forecast at $294.2 billion) to account for the record forecast for overall net returns. When measured in cash terms, net cash income in 2012 is also projected record large at $139.3 billion, up 3.4% from last year's record. However, when adjusted for inflation, current farm income forecasts remain well below the peak period of the early 1970s. In addition to record farm income, farm wealth is also at record levels. Farm asset values—which reflect farm investors' and lenders' expectations about long-term profitability of farm-sector investments—are expected to rise nearly 7% in 2012 to a record $2,551 billion for a fifth consecutive year of gains. Farm land cash markets have continued to see gains related to strong crop prices in 2012. Since 2008, farm asset values are up 26% while farm debt has risen by only 8%. As a result, the farm debt-to-asset ratio has declined steadily since 2008 and is expected to fall to the lowest level on record in 2012 at 10.2%. The 2012 outlook for a second year of strong farm income occurs in spite of slow growth in the domestic economy and the most severe and extensive drought in at least 25 years. The ongoing drought is expected to destroy or damage a significant portion of the U.S. corn and soybean crops, with deleterious impacts on all U.S. livestock sectors—cattle, hogs, poultry, and dairy—and with the potential to affect food prices at the retail level. Yet, drought-induced large increases in the value of this year's crops, plus substantial crop insurance indemnity payments, are expected to more than offset rising production expenditures for both crop and livestock activities and generate record farm income. Government farm payments, at $11 billion (up 6%), are expected to remain relatively small in 2012 (second-lowest total since 1997) as high commodity prices shut off payments under the price-contingent marketing loan and counter-cyclical payment programs. These data suggest a strong financial position in 2012 for the agricultural sector as a whole relative to the rest of the U.S. economy, but with substantial regional variation. In general, the increase in expenses will affect livestock producers more harshly than crop producers. Cash grain farmers in the Corn Belt and Northern Plains are expected to experience a second year of record revenues despite the drought. In contrast, livestock and poultry feeders are experiencing record high feed costs that have narrowed or eliminated profit margins despite record high wholesale and retail prices for their end products. In addition, the severe nationwide drought has limited grazing opportunities and hay production for cattle ranchers in the affected regions and led to substantial herd liquidation. The lingering effects of the drought are expected to spill over into next year, when record-high market prices will likely motivate large feed grain and oilseed plantings. Eventual 2013 agricultural economic well-being will hinge greatly on spring crop planting and summer growing weather, as well as both domestic and international macroeconomic factors including economic growth and consumer demand.

Author: Pascal Liu
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384

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Substantial increases in agricultural investments in developing countries are needed to combat poverty and realize food security and nutrition goals. There is evidence that agricultural investments can generate a wide range of developmental benefits, but these benefits cannot be expected to arise automatically and some forms of large-scale investment carry risks for host countries. Although there has been much debate about the potential benefits and risks of international investment, there is no systematic evidence on the actual impacts on the host country and their determinants. In order to acquire an in-depth understanding of potential benefits, constraints and costs of foreign investment in agriculture and of the business models that are more conducive to development, FAO has undertaken research in developing countries.This publication summarizes the results of this research, in particular through the presentation of the main findings of case studies in nine developing countries. It presents case studies on policies to attract foreign investment in agriculture and their impacts on national economic development in selected countries in Africa, Asian and Latin America.

Author: Marc Nerlove
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483218880
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 495

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Analysis of Economic Time Series: A Synthesis integrates several topics in economic time-series analysis, including the formulation and estimation of distributed-lag models of dynamic economic behavior; the application of spectral analysis in the study of the behavior of economic time series; and unobserved-components models for economic time series and the closely related problem of seasonal adjustment. Comprised of 14 chapters, this volume begins with a historical background on the use of unobserved components in the analysis of economic time series, followed by an Introduction to the theory of stationary time series. Subsequent chapters focus on the spectral representation and its estimation; formulation of distributed-lag models; elements of the theory of prediction and extraction; and formulation of unobserved-components models and canonical forms. Seasonal adjustment techniques and multivariate mixed moving-average autoregressive time-series models are also considered. Finally, a time-series model of the U.S. cattle industry is presented. This monograph will be of value to mathematicians, economists, and those interested in economic theory, econometrics, and mathematical economics.

Author: David H. Harrington
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 32

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Author: Laborde Debucquet, David
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 53

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To understand the impacts of support programs on global emissions, this paper considers the impacts of domestic subsidies, price distortions at the border, and investments in emission-reducing technologies on global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. In a step towards a full evaluation of the impacts, it uses a counterfactual global model scenario showing how much emissions from agricultural production would change if agricultural support were abolished worldwide. The analysis indicates that, without subsidies paid directly to farmers, output of some emission-intensive activities and agricultural emissions would be smaller. Without agricultural trade protection, however, emissions would be higher. This is partly because protection reduces global demand more than it increases global agricultural supply, and partly because some countries that currently tax agriculture have high emission intensities. Policies that directly reduce emission intensities yield much larger reductions in emissions than those that reduce emission intensities by increasing overall productivity because overall productivity growth creates a rebound effect by reducing product prices and expanding output. A key challenge is designing policy reforms that effectively reduce emissions without jeopardizing other key goals such as improving nutrition and reducing poverty. While the scenario analysis in this paper does not propose any particular policy reform, it does provide an important building block towards a full understanding the impacts of repurposed agricultural support measures on mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change. That full analysis is being undertaken in subsequent work, which will also take account of land-use change and alternative forms of agricultural policy support to align objectives of food security, farmers’ income security, production efficiency and resilience, and environmental protection.

Author: United States. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agricultural resources
Languages : en
Pages : 358

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Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821383523
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 536

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Book Description
Investing to promote agricultural growth and poverty reduction is a central pillar of the World Bank's current rural strategy, 'Reaching the Rural Poor' (2003). This 'Sourcebook' addresses how to implement the rural strategy, by sharing information on investment options and identifying innovative approaches that will aid the design of future lending programs for agriculture. It provides generic good practices and many examples that demonstrate investment in agriculture can provide rewarding and sustainable returns to development efforts. It is divided into eleven self-contained modules. Each module contains three different types of subunits that can also be stand-alone documents: I. Module Overview II. Agricultural Investment Notes III. Innovative Activity Profiles. The stand-alone nature of the subunits allows flexibility and adaptability of the material. Selected readings and web links are also provided for readers who seek more in-depth information. The 'Sourcebook' draws on a wide range of experiences from donor agencies, governments, institutions, and other groups active in agricultural development. It is an invaluable reference tool for policy makers, professionals, academics and students, and anyone with an interest in agricultural investments.

Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
ISBN: 9251346089
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 337

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Book Description
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.

Author: Keith Fuglie
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9781464813931
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
This book documents frontier knowledge on the drivers of agriculture productivity to derive pragmatic policy advice for governments and development partners on reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The analysis describes global trends and long-term sources of total factor productivity growth, along with broad trends in partial factor productivity for land and labor, revisiting the question of scale economies in farming. Technology is central to growth in agricultural productivity, yet across many parts of the developing world, readily available technology is never taken up. We investigate demand-side constraints of the technology equation to analyze factors that might influence producers, particularly poor producers, to adopt modern technology. Agriculture and food systems are rapidly transforming, characterized by shifting food preferences, the rise and growing sophistication of value chains, the increasing globalization of agriculture, and the expanding role of the public and private sectors in bringing about efficient and more rapid productivity growth. In light of this transformation, the analysis focuses on the supply side of the technology equation, exploring how the enabling environment and regulations related to trade and intellectual property rights stimulate Research and Development to raise productivity. The book also discusses emerging developments in modern value chains that contribute to rising productivity. This book is the fourth volume of the World Bank Productivity Project, which seeks to bring frontier thinking on the measurement and determinants of productivity to global policy makers.