Intertemporal CAPM and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Intertemporal CAPM and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns PDF full book. Access full book title Intertemporal CAPM and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns by Joseph Chen. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Joseph Chen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
This paper examines whether the historically high returns associated with the size effect, the book-to-market effect, and the momentum effect can be explained within an asset pricing framework suggested by Merton's (1973) Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model. Controlling for the market, an asset may earn a risk premium if it performs poorly when the prospects for the future turn sour. I develop a model with time-varying expected market returns and time-varying market volatilities to reflect thechanges in the investment opportunity set of the economy. Campbell's (1993, 1996) technique of substituting out aggregate consumption delivers two key insights.An underlying mechanism is that in the absence of frictions,the aggregate budget constraint restricts variations in market returns to affect aggregate consumption at some horizon. Hence the first insight is that if a factor reflects the changes in the investment opportunity set, its risk premium should be linked to the amount of information that it conveys about the future. The second insight is that the risk premia across factors should be linked to each other through the willingness of investors tobear risk. I test whether the returns associated with the size effect, the book-to-market effect, and the momentum effect are consistent with these restrictions.This model is estimated using a multivariate VAR-GARCH model with non-Gaussian innovations. The estimates suggest that the historical returns on thebook-to-market effect and the momentum effect are too high to be explained as compensation for exposures to adversechanges in the investment opportunity set.
Author: Joseph Chen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
This paper examines whether the historically high returns associated with the size effect, the book-to-market effect, and the momentum effect can be explained within an asset pricing framework suggested by Merton's (1973) Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model. Controlling for the market, an asset may earn a risk premium if it performs poorly when the prospects for the future turn sour. I develop a model with time-varying expected market returns and time-varying market volatilities to reflect thechanges in the investment opportunity set of the economy. Campbell's (1993, 1996) technique of substituting out aggregate consumption delivers two key insights.An underlying mechanism is that in the absence of frictions,the aggregate budget constraint restricts variations in market returns to affect aggregate consumption at some horizon. Hence the first insight is that if a factor reflects the changes in the investment opportunity set, its risk premium should be linked to the amount of information that it conveys about the future. The second insight is that the risk premia across factors should be linked to each other through the willingness of investors tobear risk. I test whether the returns associated with the size effect, the book-to-market effect, and the momentum effect are consistent with these restrictions.This model is estimated using a multivariate VAR-GARCH model with non-Gaussian innovations. The estimates suggest that the historical returns on thebook-to-market effect and the momentum effect are too high to be explained as compensation for exposures to adversechanges in the investment opportunity set.
Author: Joao F. Gomes Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 71
Book Description
We explicitly link expected stock returns to firm characteristics such as firm size and book-to-market ratio in a dynamic general equilibrium production economy. Despite the fact that stock returns in the model are characterized by an intertemporal CAPM with the market portfolio as the only factor, size and book-to-market play separate roles in describing the cross-section of returns. These firm characteristics appear to predict stock returns because they are correlated with the true conditional market beta of returns. These cross-sectional relations can subsist after one controls for a typical empirical estimate of market beta. This lends support to the view that the documented ability of size and book-to-market to explain the cross-section of stock returns is not necessarily inconsistent with a single-factor conditional CAPM model. Our model also gives rise to a number of additional implications for the cross-section of returns. In this paper, we focus on the business cycle properties of returns and firm characteristics. Our results appear consistent with the limited existing evidence and provide a benchmark for future empirical studies.cycle properties.
Author: John Y. Campbell Publisher: ISBN: Category : Asset allocation Languages : en Pages : 59
Book Description
This paper studies the pricing of volatility risk using the first-order conditions of a long-term equity investor who is content to hold the aggregate equity market rather than tilting towards value stocks and other equity portfolios that are attractive to short-term investors. We show that a conservative long-term investor will avoid such tilts in order to hedge against two types of deterioration in investment opportunities: declining expected stock returns, and increasing volatility. Empirically, we present novel evidence that low-frequency movements in equity volatility, tied to the default spread, are priced in the cross-section of stock returns.
Author: C. N. V. Krishnan Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
We analyze the stock market risk-return relation over the period from 1927 to 2005. We empirically implement the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) using a cross-section of stock and bond portfolios, and allow for the market price of risk to be time-varying. We show that including bond portfolios in the estimation not only significantly changes the time-series estimates of the market price of risk, but also makes the correlation between conditional stock-market variance and the variance component of expected market return positive.
Author: Turan G. Bali Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118589475 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 512
Book Description
“Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.
Author: Zhenyu Wang Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Most empirical studies of the static CAPM assume that betas remain constant over time and that the return on the value-weighted portfolio of all stocks is a proxy for the return on aggregate wealth. The general consensus is that the static CAPM is unable to explain satisfactorily the cross-section of average returns on stocks. We assume that the CAPM holds in a conditional sense, i.e., betas and the market risk premium vary over time. We include the return on human capital when measuring the return on aggregate wealth. Our specification performs well in explaining the cross-section of average returns.
Author: Costis Skiadas Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 1400830141 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 363
Book Description
Asset Pricing Theory is an advanced textbook for doctoral students and researchers that offers a modern introduction to the theoretical and methodological foundations of competitive asset pricing. Costis Skiadas develops in depth the fundamentals of arbitrage pricing, mean-variance analysis, equilibrium pricing, and optimal consumption/portfolio choice in discrete settings, but with emphasis on geometric and martingale methods that facilitate an effortless transition to the more advanced continuous-time theory. Among the book's many innovations are its use of recursive utility as the benchmark representation of dynamic preferences, and an associated theory of equilibrium pricing and optimal portfolio choice that goes beyond the existing literature. Asset Pricing Theory is complete with extensive exercises at the end of every chapter and comprehensive mathematical appendixes, making this book a self-contained resource for graduate students and academic researchers, as well as mathematically sophisticated practitioners seeking a deeper understanding of concepts and methods on which practical models are built. Covers in depth the modern theoretical foundations of competitive asset pricing and consumption/portfolio choice Uses recursive utility as the benchmark preference representation in dynamic settings Sets the foundations for advanced modeling using geometric arguments and martingale methodology Features self-contained mathematical appendixes Includes extensive end-of-chapter exercises
Author: Robert Engle Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 1400830192 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 176
Book Description
Financial markets respond to information virtually instantaneously. Each new piece of information influences the prices of assets and their correlations with each other, and as the system rapidly changes, so too do correlation forecasts. This fast-evolving environment presents econometricians with the challenge of forecasting dynamic correlations, which are essential inputs to risk measurement, portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and many other critical financial activities. In Anticipating Correlations, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Engle introduces an important new method for estimating correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). Engle demonstrates the role of correlations in financial decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other measures of dependence. He compares DCC with other correlation estimators such as historical correlation, exponential smoothing, and multivariate GARCH, and he presents a range of important applications of DCC. Engle presents the asymmetric model and illustrates it using a multicountry equity and bond return model. He introduces the new FACTOR DCC model that blends factor models with the DCC to produce a model with the best features of both, and illustrates it using an array of U.S. large-cap equities. Engle shows how overinvestment in collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, lies at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis--and how the correlation models in this book could have foreseen the risks. A technical chapter of econometric results also is included. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Anticipating Correlations puts powerful new forecasting tools into the hands of researchers, financial analysts, risk managers, derivative quants, and graduate students.
Author: Joseph Chen
Author: Joseph Chen
Author: Joao F. Gomes
Author: Stijn Claessens
Author: Hui Guo
Author: John Y. Campbell
Author: C. N. V. Krishnan
Author: Turan G. Bali
Author: Zhenyu Wang
Author: Costis Skiadas
Author: Robert Engle