International Diversification Under Estimation Risk PDF Download

Author: Cheol S. Eun
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Investments, Foreign
Languages : en
Pages : 26

View

Book Description

Author: Lawrence S. Tai
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Investment analysis
Languages : en
Pages : 16

View

Book Description

Author: Mattias Persson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 22

View

Book Description
The gains from international diversification are a well-established fact. In this study a non-parametric moving block bootstrap is used to investigate if investors with long investment horizons should tilt their portfolio weights towards the international stock markets. Through this approach we are able to study the impact of estimation risk on the optimal weights in the assets, and over the investment horizons. The analysis shows that the investors gain more from internationally diversified portfolios if the investment horizon is longer, that is, the weight in the international assets are significantly higher for long investment horizons compared to the one-year horizon.

Author: Onousa Boontanorm
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 72

View

Book Description
This thesis explores the topic of diversification opportunities in international real estate, with focus on private real estate markets in developed countries. In examining the characteristics of returns and interrelatedness between international real estate, stocks and bonds markets from the time period spanning 2000 to 2009, we find that 2008 was the only year within the past decade in which several countries saw synchronized negative returns on a calendar year basis in the stocks and real estate markets, and even so the synchronized negative returns was only experienced by half of the countries within the 10-country opportunity set. The amplitude of the peak to trough drop in the cumulative value of the assets was small in real estate on average relative to that of stocks. These findings suggest that investors' should benefit from holding international real estate within their portfolios, even in an extreme down market. Modern portfolio theory is used to analyze and compare ex-ante diversification opportunities in international real estate, stocks and bonds and domestic diversification opportunities for the three asset classes from the perspectives of U.S. and European investors. We project expected returns for each of the markets and used historical risks (volatility) from the 2000-2009 period as estimates for volatility. When returns are calculated in local currencies, international diversification in the real estate portfolio (diversified within a 10-country opportunity set) should help U.S. investors substantially improve their portfolio risk-return efficiency relative to domestic diversification (within a 6-metropolitan area opportunity set), as the markets within the U.S. domestic opportunity set provide unattractive risk-return efficiency and their movements are highly correlated. By contrast, European investors will benefit less from the same international diversification strategy relative to domestic diversification (within 5 Eurozone countries) as several Eurozone markets are able to provide considerable risk-return efficiency and low correlations can be found in some pairs of markets. Applying home bias and limits on exposure to any single country i.e. country caps to the portfolio allocation helps to balance the allocation weights for the investor's portfolio but also significantly limits the investor's ability to take advantage of diversification opportunities provided by the international markets. When returns are calculated in the investors' domestic currencies, additional currency risk increases the portfolio volatility without providing additional expected return, reducing diversification benefits of international real estate. Even so, international diversification potential to U.S. investors should still be considerable, while that to European investors' should be minimal.

Author: Giorgio De Santis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital assets pricing model
Languages : en
Pages : 70

View

Book Description

Author: Seungho Jung
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1557759677
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36

View

Book Description
We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.

Author: Thomas Conlon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 57

View

Book Description
The evidence for international diversification as a means to curtail portfolio risk relies predominantly on short-run data. In this paper, we examine the extent to which the risk reduction benefits of international investment hold in the long-run. Employing a multi-horizon non-parametric filter, we develop a long-run correlation estimator and exploit this to decompose the long-run inter-market relationship into short-run components. We observe raised correlations between international equity indices in the long-run. Investigating the economic significance for investors, we find the long-run benefits of international diversification to be attenuated. Increasing long-run correlation is modeled as a function of short-run data accounting for characteristics pervasive in financial time series. This indicates that perceived risk reduction benefits may be overstated using short-run data.

Author: Karen K. Lewis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 74

View

Book Description
Over the past two decades international markets have become more open, leading to a common perception that global capital markets have become more integrated. In this paper, I ask what this integration and its resulting higher correlation would imply about the diversification potential across countries. For this purpose, I examine two basic groups of international returns: (1) foreign market indices and (2) foreign stocks that are listed and traded in the US. I examine the first group since this is the standard approach in the international diversification literature, while I study the second group since some have argued that US-listed foreign stocks are the more natural diversification vehicle (Errunza et al (1999)). In order to consider the possibility of shifts in the covariance of returns over time, I extend the break-date estimation approach of Bai and Perron (1998) to test for and estimate possible break dates across returns along with their confidence intervals. I find that the covariances among country stock markets have indeed shifted over time for a majority of the countries. But in contrast to the common perception that markets have become significantly more integrated over time, the covariance between foreign markets and the US market have increased only slightly from the beginning to the end of the last twenty years. At the same time, the foreign stocks in the US markets have become significantly more correlated with the US market. To consider the economic significance of these parameter changes, I use the estimates to examine the implications for a simple portfolio decision model in which a US investor could choose between US and foreign portfolios. When restricted to holding foreign assets in the form of market indices, I find that the optimal allocation in foreign market indices actually increases over time. However, the optimal allocation into foreign stocks decreases when the investor is allowed to hold foreign stocks that are traded in the US. Also, the minimum variance attainable by the foreign portfolios has increased over time. These results suggest that the benefits to diversification have declined both for stocks inside and outside the US.

Author: Iftekhar Hasan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41

View

Book Description
While modern portfolio theory predicts that investors should diversify across international markets, corporate equity is essentially held by domestic investors. French and Poterba (1991) suggest that in order for this bias to be justified, investors must hold optimistic expectations about their domestic markets and pessimistic expectations about their foreign markets. Tesar and Werner (1995) find existing explanations to the home equity bias unsatisfactory and conclude that the issue poses a challenge for portfolio theory. We develop a model that incorporates both the foregone gains from diversification and the informational constraints of international investing, and shows that home equity bias is consistent with rational mean-variance portfolio choice. Specifically, we prove that the nature of estimation risk in international markets can be responsible for this phenomenon. We show that when the cross-market variability in the estimation errors of international markets' means far exceeds the cross-market variability in the means themselves, domestic dedication dominates international diversification. An examination of eleven international markets' returns over the last twenty-five years, from the perspective of German, Japanese and U.S investors provides evidence consistent with this explanation.

Author: Karen K. Lewis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital market
Languages : en
Pages : 73

View

Book Description
Over the past two decades international markets have become more open, leading to a common perception that global capital markets have become more integrated. In this paper, I ask what this integration and its resulting higher correlation would imply about the diversification potential across countries. For this purpose, I examine two basic groups of international returns: (1) foreign market indices and (2) foreign stocks that are listed and traded in the US. I examine the first group since this is the standard approach in the international diversification literature, while I study the second group since some have argued that US-listed foreign stocks are the more natural diversification vehicle (Errunza et al (1999)). In order to consider the possibility of shifts in the covariance of returns over time, I extend the break-date estimation approach of Bai and Perron (1998) to test for and estimate possible break dates across returns along with their confidence intervals. I find that the covariances among country stock markets have indeed shifted over time for a majority of the countries. But in contrast to the common perception that markets have become significantly more integrated over time, the covariance between foreign markets and the US market have increased only slightly from the beginning to the end of the last twenty years. At the same time, the foreign stocks in the US markets have become significantly more correlated with the US market. To consider the economic significance of these parameter changes, I use the estimates to examine the implications for a simple portfolio decision model in which a US investor could choose between US and foreign portfolios. When restricted to holding foreign assets in the form of market indices, I find that the optimal allocation in foreign market indices actually increases over time. However, the optimal allocation into foreign stocks decreases when the investor is allowed to hold foreign stocks that are traded in the US. Also, the minimum variance atta