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Author: Solomos Solomou Publisher: Manchester University Press ISBN: 9780719041518 Category : Business cycles Languages : en Pages : 150
Book Description
The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
Author: Christian Zimmermann Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
International real business cycle models are not able to account for the high volatility of exports, imports, the trade balance and the terms of trade. By introducing exogenous exchange rate movements in addition to standard technological shocks, the model presented here comes much closer to replicating the relatively high volatility observed in the data while also improving other moments.
Author: Solomos Solomou Publisher: Manchester University Press ISBN: 9780719041518 Category : Business cycles Languages : en Pages : 150
Book Description
The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451870019 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 51
Book Description
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Author: Marianne Baxter Publisher: ISBN: Category : Business cycles Languages : en Pages : 80
Book Description
This paper investigates empirically the differences in time?series behavior of key economic aggregates under alternative exchange rate systems. We use a postwar sample of 49 countries to compare the behavior of output. consumption, trade flows, government consumption spending, and real exchange rates under alternative exchange rate systems (pegged, floating, and systems such as the EMS). We then examine evidence from two particular episodes, involving Canada and Ireland, of changes in the exchange rate system. Aside from greater variability of real exchange rates under flexible than under pegged nominal exchange rate systems, we find little evidence of systematic differences in the behavior of other macroeconomic aggregates or international trade flows under alternative exchange rate systems. These results are of interest because a large class of theoretical models implies that the nominal exchange rate system has important effects on a number of macroeconomic quantities.
Author: Shouyang Wang Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642559344 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 260
Book Description
In our daily life, almost every family owns a portfolio of assets. This portfolio could contain real assets such as a car, or a house, as well as financial assets such as stocks, bonds or futures. Portfolio theory deals with how to form a satisfied portfolio among an enormous number of assets. Originally proposed by H. Markowtiz in 1952, the mean-variance methodology for portfolio optimization has been central to the research activities in this area and has served as a basis for the development of modem financial theory during the past four decades. Follow-on work with this approach has born much fruit for this field of study. Among all those research fruits, the most important is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) proposed by Sharpe in 1964. This model greatly simplifies the input for portfolio selection and makes the mean-variance methodology into a practical application. Consequently, lots of models were proposed to price the capital assets. In this book, some of the most important progresses in portfolio theory are surveyed and a few new models for portfolio selection are presented. Models for asset pricing are illustrated and the empirical tests of CAPM for China's stock markets are made. The first chapter surveys ideas and principles of modeling the investment decision process of economic agents. It starts with the Markowitz criteria of formulating return and risk as mean and variance and then looks into other related criteria which are based on probability assumptions on future prices of securities.
Author: Mr.Pau Rabanal Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1463990197 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
Real exchange rates exhibit important low-frequency fluctuations. This makes the analysis of real exchange rates at all frequencies a more sound exercise than the typical business cycle one, which compares actual and simulated data after the Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to both. A simple two-country, two-good model, as described in Heathcote and Perri (2002), can explain the volatility of the real exchange rate when all frequencies are studied. The puzzle is that the model generates too much persistence of the real exchange rate instead of too little, as the business cycle analysis asserts. Finally, we show that the introduction of adjustment costs in production and in portfolio holdings allows us to reconcile theory and this feature of the data.
Author: Philip A. Klein Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1315492288 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 353
Book Description
This "Festschrift" honours Geoffrey H. Moore's life-long contribution to the study of business cycles. After some analysts had concluded that business cycles were dead, renewed economic turbulence in the 1970s and 1980s brought new life to the subject. The study of business cycles now encompasses the global economic system, and this work aims to push back the frontiers of knowledge.
Author: Andrea Raffo Publisher: DIANE Publishing ISBN: 1437939104 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 55
Book Description
Understanding the joint dynamics of internat. prices and quantities remains a central issue in internat. bus. cycles. Internat. relative prices appreciate when domestic consumption and output increase more than their foreign counterparts. In addition, both trade flows and trade prices display sizable volatility. This paper incorporates Hicks-neutral and investment-specific TS into a standard two-country general equilibrium model with variable capacity utilization and weak wealth effects on labor supply. Investment-specific TS introduce a source of fluctuations in absorption similar to taste shocks, thus reconciling theory and data. Also presents implications for the transmission mechanism of TS across countries. Illus. This is a print on demand pub.
Author: Mr. David Cook Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, it finds key differences between the response of final goods and GVC trade to both domestic and foreign shocks depending on the origin and ultimate destination of value added and the intermediate shipments involved. For example, the model shows that in response to a dollar appreciation triggered by a US interest rate increase, direct bilateral trade between non-US countries contracts more than global value chain oriented trade which feeds US final demand, and exports to the US decline much more when measured in gross as opposed to value added terms. We use granular data on GVCs at the sector level to document empirical evidence in favor of these key predictions of the model.
Author: Solomos Solomou
Author: Christian Zimmermann
Author: Solomos Solomou![International Business Cycles and Exchange Rates [computer File] PDF](https://books.google.com/books/content/images/frontcover/GtYJkAEACAAJ?fife=w80-h100)
Author: Zimmermann, Christian
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Author: Marianne Baxter
Author: Shouyang Wang
Author: Mr.Pau Rabanal
Author: Philip A. Klein
Author: Andrea Raffo
Author: Mr. David Cook