Internal and External Exchange Rate Equilibrium in a Cointegration Framework PDF Download

Author: Enrique Alberola Ila
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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Book Description
Theoretical framework; The empirical model; Estimation and orthogonal decomposition; Empirical analysis.

Author: Mr.Angel J. Ubide
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451858736
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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Book Description
This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.

Author: Enrique Alberola
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Book Description
Between 1990 and 2001 the Argentine peso appreciated by 80 percent in real terms, and its overvaluation has been singled out as one of the main suspects in the debate on the causes of the Argentina collapse of late 2001. This paper assesses the degree of real misalignment in Argentina over the Convertibility period using a model in which the equilibrium real exchange rate is defined as the value consistent with (i) a balance of payments position where any current account imbalance is financed by a sustainable flow of international capital (external equilibrium), and (ii) traded/nontraded sector productivity differentials (internal equilibrium). Empirical implementation of the model suggests that the initial real appreciation of the peso, between 1990 and 1993, was consistent with the productivity increases that Argentina enjoyed following the stabilization of the economy after the hyperinflation of the late 1980s. But after 1996 a widening gap opened between the observed real exchange rate and that consistent with a sustainable net foreign asset position. Our estimates indicate that in 2001 the peso was overvalued by over 50 percent. The model allows us to assess how much of the overvaluation resulted from Argentina's inadequate choice of anchor currency and how much from a divergence of fundamentals between the U.S. and Argentina, ultimately due to the maintenance of policies inconsistent with the peg. We find that both factors played a role in the overvaluation accumulated between 1977 and 2001 that preceded the collapse of the Convertibility regime.

Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134838220
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 334

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Book Description
''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""

Author: Mr.Tarhan Feyzioglu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451853173
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25

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Book Description
An equilibrium exchange rate is here defined as the level that is consistent with simultaneous internal and external balances as specified in Montiel (1996). Exogenous “fundamental” variables determining these balances are identified. Along the lines of Edwards (1994), a reduced form is estimated with the cointegration technique for Finland for the period 1975-95. The estimation produced a reasonable set of equilibrium exchange rates that appreciate with positive shocks to the terms of trade, world real interest rates, and the productivity differential between Finland and its trading partners.

Author: Akhand Akhtar Hossain
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136307257
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 434

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Book Description
Following the acquisition of its sovereignty from the Netherlands in 1949, Indonesia experienced serious economic and political problems during the 1950s and 1960s, before entering a three-decade-long period of rapid economic growth. Hard-hit by the financial crisis of the late 1990s, Indonesia undertook a wide range of economic and financial reforms. These reforms served to prepare it well for the 2007-08 global financial crisis, through which Indonesia passed relatively unscathed. Drawing on empirical research, this book presents a comprehensive empirical study on the key macroeconomic relations and monetary policy issues in Indonesia. The book analyses monetary, fiscal and exchange-rate policies, looking at their interactions and impacts on the economy. It demonstrates how important macroeconomic management for monetary and financial stability is to sustained national economic growth and development. Data from the 1970s is compared and contrasted with 1950s data to analyse macroeconomic policies and issues in an historical context. Statistical and econometric techniques are juxtaposed with general empirical results to supplement informative discussion of macroeconomic and monetary developments. This book is a useful contribution to studies on macroeconomics and international development, as well as Southeast Asian studies.

Author: Pablo Fajnzylber
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821368710
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 410

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Book Description
Workers' remittances have become a major source of financing for developing countries and are especially important in Latin America and the Caribbean, which is at the top of the ranking of remittance receiving regions in the world. While there has been a recent surge in analytical work on the topic, this book is motivated by the large heterogeneity in migration and remittance patterns across countries and regions, and by the fact that existing evidence for Latin America and the Caribbean is restricted to only a few countries, such as Mexico and El Salvador. Because the nature of the phenomenon varies across countries, its development impact and policy implications are also likely to differ in ways that are still largely unknown. This book helps fill the gap by exploring, in the specific context of Latin America and Caribbean countries, some of the main questions faced by policymakers when trying to respond to increasing remittances flows. The book relies on cross-country panel data and household surveys for 11 Latin American countries to explore the development impact of remittance flows along several dimensions: growth, poverty, inequality, schooling, health, labor supply, financial development, and real exchange rates.

Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792384243
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 364

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Book Description
How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.

Author: J. Humberto Lopez
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Emigrant remittances
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Book Description
Existing empirical evidence indicates that remittances have a positive impact on a good number of development indicators of recipient countries. Yet when flows are too large relative to the size of the recipient economies, as those observed in a number of Latin American countries, they may also bring a number of undesired problems. Among those probably the most feared in this context is the Dutch Disease. This paper explores the empirical evidence regarding the impact of remittances on the real exchange rate. The findings suggest that remittances indeed appear to lead to a significant real exchange rate appreciation. The paper also explores policy options that may somewhat offset the observed effect.

Author: Jessica James
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118445775
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 674

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Book Description
Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.