Interest Rate Term Premiums and the Failure of the Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis PDF Download
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Author: Carol Lee Osler Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper develops a new parity condition for international financial markets which relates differences between the forward exchange rate and the expected future exchange rate to interest rate term premiums. It begins with the general proposition that VIP cannot hold for all maturity horizons if interest rate term premiums are imperfectly correlated across countries and expectations are rational. The conditions under which VIP could hold for multiple horizons, under these two assumptions, are found to be very restrictive. It is argued that if VIP holds at all under these circumstances, it is only likely to hold at a very short time horizon. Finally, it is shown that under these assumptions, if VIP holds at the shortest time horizon then the difference between forward exchange rates and expected future spot rates at all other horizons will be the difference in expected term premiums at each maturity.
Author: Carol Lee Osler Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper develops a new parity condition for international financial markets which relates differences between the forward exchange rate and the expected future exchange rate to interest rate term premiums. It begins with the general proposition that VIP cannot hold for all maturity horizons if interest rate term premiums are imperfectly correlated across countries and expectations are rational. The conditions under which VIP could hold for multiple horizons, under these two assumptions, are found to be very restrictive. It is argued that if VIP holds at all under these circumstances, it is only likely to hold at a very short time horizon. Finally, it is shown that under these assumptions, if VIP holds at the shortest time horizon then the difference between forward exchange rates and expected future spot rates at all other horizons will be the difference in expected term premiums at each maturity.
Author: Steven Shavell Publisher: ISBN: Category : Criminal behavior, Prediction of Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
The theory of deterrence has been concerned primarily with situations in which individuals consider whether to commit a single harmful act (whether to discharge a pollutant into a lake, whether to steal a car) rather than with situations in which individuals decide which of several harmful acts to commit (whether to discharge one pollutant or another pollutant into a lake, whether to engage in car theft or in burglary). In the latter situations, the threat of sanctions plays a role in addition to the usual one of deterring individuals from committing harmful acts: it influences which harmful acts undeterred individuals choose to commit (it accomplishes "marginal deterrence"). It is shown in the present note that sanctions may increase more with harm when individuals choose among harmful acts than when individuals choose only whether to commit single harmful acts. The reason is that a higher gradation of sanctions encourages the undeterred to commit less harmful acts. The assumption necessary for this conclusion is that probabilities of apprehension for different acts are equal, being determined by a general level of enforcement effort. If enforcement effort is specific to the act, the conclusion does not hold; optimal sanctions for different acts are then equal to each other.
Author: Heiner Flassbeck Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9811215774 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 319
Book Description
Globalisation is considered a success story. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the political divides between East and West Germany, nothing seemed to stand in the way of peaceful cooperation between people everywhere. Under the precepts of economic liberalism, by removing institutional obstacles to international trade and capital flows, a spontaneous global order would emerge, and the dream of a world populated by free and prosperous global citizens would eventually come true.But in the wake of the worldwide financial crisis that began in 2007-2008, in the world of an ongoing Euro-Crisis, Trump and Brexit, it has become apparent that the great liberal project has failed. Neoclassical liberal economic theory has shown itself to be fundamentally incapable of explaining the dynamics of a market economy and in guiding economic policy in developed as well as in developing countries.Given the continuing dominance of that discredited theory today, the world lacks a viable conceptual framework for global cooperation among nations, and appropriate national economic policies. With this book, the authors show how such a framework can be built on the basis of a modern and empirically sound economic theory.
Author: Francine D. Blau Publisher: ISBN: Category : Analysis of variance Languages : en Pages : 64
Book Description
Over the past 30 years, research on married women's labor force participation has concluded virtually without exception that the principal source of labor force participation rate growth for married women has been the concurrent growth of women's real wages. The experience of the 1970's suggests, however, that real wage growth cannot account for the increase In participation rates that occurred during that period. His paper argues that an Important determinant of married women's current participation decisions is the level of uncertainty associated with expectations of future wages, and that high levels of uncertainty during the 1970's may have contributed substantially to the growth in participation that occurred during that time. Engle's model of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) Is apply led to aggregate time series data covering the years 1956-1986 to measure the level of uncertainty at each point In time. Our estimates Indicate support for the basic hypothesis that the level of uncertainty is an important determinant of labor force participation decisions for married women.
Author: Alan S. Blinder Publisher: ISBN: Category : Wage surveys Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
A small interview survey was undertaken to see how actual wage-setters would react to the central. ideas of several economic theories of wage stickiness. Wage cuts were surprisingly prevalent in recent years, despite the booming economy. The strongest finding was that managers believe that perceptions of fairness play a major motivational role in labor markets; and that a "fair" wage policy is a good deal more complicated than simply not cutting wages. We also found substantial evidence for money illusion and against the adverse-selection version of the efficiency wage model.
Author: Robert A. Taggart Publisher: ISBN: Category : Capital Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
This paper examines three valuation methods, each of which should lead to the same value for a given asset. These are the Adjusted Present Value, Adjusted Discount Rate and Flows to Equity methods. To achieve identical valuations, however, the different methods must be implemented with cost of capital expressions that embody a consistent set of assumptions about (1) the tax regime and (2) the time pattern and riskiness of debt tax shields. Valuation and cost of capital expressions that have been proposed in the literature are grouped and contrasted according to these assumptions. It is also shown that the familiar weighted average cost of capital can be consistent with any such set of assumptions, as long as the correct expression is used to estimate the relationship between the levered and unlevered cost of equity.
Author: Warwick J. McKibbin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Econometric models Languages : en Pages : 72
Book Description
This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings of the MSG2 simulation model of the world economy. The MSG2 model is a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy which pays particular attention to the relation between stocks and flows and intertemporal constraints. The formation of expectations also plays an important role in the model. In the version presented here the world is divided into the U.S., Japan, Germany, the rest of the EMS, and the rest of the OECD, non-oil developing countries and OPEC.
Author: William A. Brock Publisher: ISBN: Category : Analysis of variance Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper explores the time series implications of introducing credit constraints into a production based asset pricing model. Simulations are performed choosing parameter values which generate reasonable values for aggregate fluctuations. These results show that mean reversion in simulated returns series, measured by variance ration tests, is enhanced with the introduction of binding credit constraints. Without these constraints there is very little evidence of mean reversion. This is consistent with financial market data where the weak evidence for mean reversion is stronger in small firm returns. Other tests are run on the simulated series including checking the standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. These other tests do not show strong differences between the constrained and unconstrained firms in the model.
Author: Carol Lee Osler
Author: Carol Lee Osler
Author: 
Author: Steven Shavell
Author: 
Author: Heiner Flassbeck
Author: Francine D. Blau
Author: Alan S. Blinder
Author: Robert A. Taggart
Author: Warwick J. McKibbin
Author: William A. Brock