Author: Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Book Description
Interannual to Decadal Predictability in a Coupled Ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Model
Decadal Climate Variability
Author: David L.T. AndersonPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3662032910
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 498
Book Description
On decadal time scales, climate change may result not only from man-made causes, but also from natural processes. This book brings together theoretical conceptions of the physical mechanisms of climate change with observational evidence of these changes. The following key topics are included: Observed Climatic Variability, Predictability of the Atmosphere and Oceans from Days to Decades, and Mechanisms for Decadal to Centennial Climate Variability. Further, there are specialised contributions on the role of the oceanic circulation in climate change. The authors are renowned for their pedagogical skills, and the book is primarily designed for beginners in the field, who have a background in physical science. In addition, it is an invaluable source of information for scientists seeking an overview on climate dynamics.
Ocean Circulation and Climate
Author: Ben P. KirtmanPublisher: Elsevier Inc. Chapters
ISBN: 0128058730
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 49
Book Description
This chapter summarizes the scientific basis for and the current status of seasonal-to-interannual prediction with particular emphasis on the role of the tropical oceans. The first part of the chapter focuses on oceanic sources of predictability in the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Seasonal-to-interannual predictability issues in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are also discussed. Mechanisms that limit predictability, particularly for ENSO, are highlighted. The second part of the chapter describes the forecast quality and procedures in practice today. Finally, the concluding remarks identify some outstanding challenges.
Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Models
Author: Jacques C. J. NihoulPublisher: Elsevier Publishing Company
ISBN:
Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages : 800
Book Description
The exchange of momentum, heat, moisture, gases (such as CO 2 and O 2 ) and salt between the atmosphere and the ocean is a phenomenon of paramount importance for the dynamics of the atmosphere and the ocean. With the pressing need for reliable climate forecast (e.g. to deal with severe food and energy problems) interactive ocean-atmosphere models have become one of the main objectives of geophysical fluid dynamics. This volume provides the first state-of-the-art review of interactive ocean-atmosphere modelling and its application to climates. The papers are by active and eminent scientists from different countries and different disciplines. They provide a up-to-date survey of major recent discoveries and valuable recommendations for future research."
Ocean-atmosphere Coupled Modes of Decadal Variability in the Southern Hemisphere
Author: Gang WangPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 171
Book Description
The Southern Ocean has a critical influence on the global climate, and any long-term variability in the Southern Ocean can have both regional and global impacts significantly. However, sparse observations limit the study of the long-term variation. To test the quality of models simulating the natural sea surface temperature (SST) variability, the SST variability in the global oceans is evaluated in simulations of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and CMIP5 models. The result shows that some models demonstrate good skill in simulating the observed spatial structure of the SST variability in the tropical domains and less so in the extra-tropical domains. The CMIP5 ensemble exhibits some improvement over the CMIP3 ensemble, mostly in the tropical domains on SST variability simulation. Further, the spatial structure of the SST modes of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 super ensemble is more realistic than any single model, which is mostly used for the following study. Several SST leading modes in the Southern Ocean are discussed on decadal and even larger time scales using CMIP5 data set based on EOF analysis. We compare the modes against several simple null hypotheses, such as isotropic diffusion (red noise) and a Slab Ocean model, to investigate the sources of decadal variability and the factors affecting the propagation and decay of long-term anomalies. The result reveals that the annular mode with largest amplitudes in the Pacific, the basin-wide monopole mode and South Pacific dipole are the principle patterns with low-frequency variability, which contain the dual effects of internal intrinsic processes as well as external forcing and teleconnections. The annular mode is mostly affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via teleconnection especially in the South Pacific domain and by local Southern Annular Mode (SAM) over the whole Southern Ocean. The monopole mode and South Pacific dipole mode, while they both demonstrate pronounced multi-decadal and longer time scales variability, are firstly inducted by the Wave-3 patterns in the atmosphere and further developed via ocean dynamics. The causes and characteristics of interannual-decadal SST variability in the Southern Ocean are further investigated with an ocean general circulation model and a simplified band ocean model. Possible factors are examined affecting the generation, propagation and decay of long-term anomalies with a series of sensitivity experiments. We found that the atmospheric forcing not only affects the SST modes on shorter time-scales directly, but also shows its influence on longer time scales via air-sea interaction, amplification and oceanic feedback. The deep mixed layer in the Southern Ocean is an essential element to maintain the long-term SST variability. The ocean dynamics connect the entire ocean and create the homogeneous-like spatial patterns. The ocean advection is the key factor to create SST spectral structure, which concentrates the spectrum on interannnual scale synchronizing with the transport of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC).
Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
Author: National Research CouncilPublisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030915183X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 192
Book Description
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Skillful Coupled Atmosphere-ocean Forecasts on Interannual to Decadal Timescales Using a Linear Inverse Model
Author: Lindsey Michelle TaylorPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
Book Description
Improvements to forecasts on interannual to decadal timescales face two major challenges: (1) consistently initializing the coupled system so that variability is not dominated by initial imbalances, and (2) having a large sample of different initial conditions on which to test forecast skill. The second challenge requires consideration of time periods not only outside the recent period of intensive ocean observation, but also before the instrumental era, which increases the importance of the first challenge. Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic conditions prior to the 1850s isolates internally generated sources of variability by removing the majority of anthropogenic forcing, yet the sparse observational record cannot capture low-frequency variability, further emphasizing the importance of both challenges and paleoclimate proxy data. This research addresses these two challenges by using a multivariate linear inverse model (LIM) and recent data assimilation (DA) results that extend the observational record with annually-resolved atmospheric and oceanic variables via a low-cost forecast that taps into ocean memory. The reconstructions provide data throughout the last millennium to initialize, validate, and calibrate the LIM. This work tests the forecast skill of LIMs trained on GCM simulations and on paleo-data assimilated reconstructions. Forecasts are initialized and verified on the reconstructions over 1000-2000 C.E. Both the DA and GCM-analog LIMs are found to have skill on interannual to decadal timescales that surpasses damped persistence for global mean sea surface temperature, as well as widespread significant positive spatial skill for 1-year forecasts of all atmosphere and ocean variables. For cross validation on global mean instrumental data, the LIM trained on paleo-data outperforms a LIM trained on the CCSM4 last millennium simulation beyond 4-year lead forecasts, with the CCSM4-LIM reaching climatological variance before the paleo-informed LIM. The paleo-data LIM requires consistent OHC states that, when provided, increase forecast skill outperformance over the GCM-informed LIMs.
Global Environmental Change
Author: National Research CouncilPublisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309174325
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 621
Book Description
How can we understand and rise to the environmental challenges of global change? One clear answer is to understand the science of global change, not solely in terms of the processes that control changes in climate and the composition of the atmosphere, but in how ecosystems and human society interact with these changes. In the last two decades of the twentieth century, a number of such research effortsâ€"supported by computer and satellite technologyâ€"have been launched. Yet many opportunities for integration remain unexploited, and many fundamental questions remain about the earth's capacity to support a growing human population. This volume encourages a renewed commitment to understanding global change and sets a direction for research in the decade ahead. Through case studies the book explores what can be learned from the lessons of the past 20 years and what are the outstanding scientific questions. Highlights include: Research imperatives and strategies for investigators in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, climate, ecosystem studies, and human dimensions of global change. The context of climate change, including lessons to be gleaned from paleoclimatology. Human responses toâ€"and forcing ofâ€"projected global change. This book offers a comprehensive overview of global change research to date and provides a framework for answering urgent questions.
Predictability of Weather and Climate
Author: Tim PalmerPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139458205
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 693
Book Description
With contributions by leading experts, including an unpublished paper by Ed Lorenz, this book, first published in 2006, covers many topics in weather and climate predictability. It will interest those in the fields of environmental science and weather and climate forecasting, from graduate students to researchers, by examining theoretical and practical aspects of predictability.
Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry
Author: Alberto TroccoliPublisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319684183
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 212
Book Description
This open access book showcases the burgeoning area of applied research at the intersection between weather and climate science and the energy industry. It illustrates how better communication between science and industry can help both sides. By opening a dialogue, scientists can understand the broader context for their work and the energy industry is able to keep track of and implement the latest scientific advances for more efficient and sustainable energy systems. Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry considers the lessons learned in establishing an ongoing discussion between the energy industry and the meteorological community and how its principles and practises can be applied elsewhere. This book will be a useful guiding resource for research and early career practitioners concerned with the energy industry and the new field of research known as energy meteorology.