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Author: Ming-Shiun Pan Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
In this study, we re-examine the relationship among interest rates on the long-term government bonds of five industrialized countries. Using both the variance ratio test and fractional cointegration analysis, we find significant evidence that indicates the five government bond rates are fractionally cointegrated. In specific, our results show that the error correction term of the system of the five interest rates follows a mean-reverting, fractionally integrated process.
Author: Ming-Shiun Pan Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
In this study, we re-examine the relationship among interest rates on the long-term government bonds of five industrialized countries. Using both the variance ratio test and fractional cointegration analysis, we find significant evidence that indicates the five government bond rates are fractionally cointegrated. In specific, our results show that the error correction term of the system of the five interest rates follows a mean-reverting, fractionally integrated process.
Author: Jean-Marc Natal Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498314120 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 25
Book Description
We argue that strong globalization forces have been an important determinant of global real interest rates over the last five decades, as they have been key drivers of changes in the natural real interest rate—i.e. the interest rate consistent with output at its potential and constant inflation. An important implication of our analysis is that increased competition in goods and labor market since the 1970s can help explain both the large increase in real interest rates up to the mid-1980s and—as globalization forces mature and may even go into reverse, leading to incrementally rising market power—its subsequent and protracted decline accompanied by lower inflation. The analysis has important implications for monetary policy and the optimal pace of normalization.
Author: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 148439450X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2012. We find that two global factors—the global monetary and fiscal policy stances—explain more than 60 percent of the variance in the long-term interest rates. Compared to the estimates from models which do not account for global factors, we find that the importance of domestic variables in explaining long-term interest rates is weakened. Moreover, the propagation of global fiscal shocks is larger in economies characterized by macroeconomic and institutional weaknesses.
Author: Steven B. Kamin Publisher: DIANE Publishing ISBN: 1437939066 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 58
Book Description
Reviews the available evidence and previous research on potential effects of financial globalization, that is, the international integration of financial markets. Central banks with floating currencies retain the ability to independently determine short-term interest rates and thus influence broader financial conditions and macro-economic performance in their economies. However, domestic financial conditions appear to have become more vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, complicating the task of making appropriate monetary policy decisions. Moreover, the financial crisis has highlighted the importance of cross-border channels for the transmission of liquidity and credit shocks. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Author: Richard C. Marston Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521599375 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 216
Book Description
Currency denomination remains a barrier to full financial integration, however, since both nominal and real returns on financial instruments vary widely by currency, even between currencies tied together by the European Monetary System. This study examines relative returns in the money and bond markets of these countries, investigating whether there are systematic variations in relative returns across currencies.
Author: Nikiforos T. Laopodis Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
This paper examines the implications from the greater integration of major capital markets using long-term interest rates. The empirical approach is a Vector Autoregression which examines the nature of the monetary spillover mechanism across eight markets namely, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the U.K. and the U.S. Proof that globalization has seriously affected the behavior of interest rates and made them more synchronized across countries is provided from the way disturbances in a market transmit to other markets. These are usually fast and persistent and affect the conduct of monetary policy in all involved parties. Further, the empirical results confirm greater convergence among countries in the European Union as Germany still retains its hegemonic status. The implications for monetary policy are that countries may now have to deal with more shocks coming from abroad and these shocks will be diverse, intense and persistent. Thus, global monetary policy, at least among the major capital markets, will have to be played interactively from now on which may suggest that greater financial supervision and regulation might be needed in order to ensure continued world stability and prosperity.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451921047 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
This study shows that the aggregate demand for M1 in the group of countries participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System can be expressed as a stable function of ERM-wide income, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate of the European Currency Unit (ECU) vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. A notable feature of the model is the rapid elimination of monetary disequilibria, in contrast with most single-country estimates which tend to find implausibly slow adjustment. These results are suggestive: if robust, they would indicate that, even at the present stage of economic and monetary integration, a European central bank could, in principle, implement monetary control more effectively than the individual national central banks.
Author: Ms.Kate Phylaktis Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451855435 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
This paper investigates the extent to which financial markets in the Pacific Basin Region have become more integrated, by analyzing the comovements of real interest rates. The paper uses cointegration and error correction models and draws inferences on the degree of capital market integration by looking at the speed of adjustment of real interest rates following a shock. The results show that there has been an increase in capital market integration with both U.S. and Japan during the 1980s. Japan has not, however, overtaken U.S. in dominating the financial markets of these countries, except possibly in the case of Malaysia. Capital market integration is found to be greater in Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan Province of China. On the other hand, Japan is the least integrated country with the United States.
Author: Ming-Shiun Pan
Author: Ming-Shiun Pan
Author: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Author: Jean-Marc Natal
Author: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba
Author: Steven B. Kamin
Author: Anthony Q. Chua
Author: Richard C. Marston
Author: Nikiforos T. Laopodis
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Ms.Kate Phylaktis