Instability and Nonlinearity in the Euro Area Phillips Curve PDF Download
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Author: Alberto Musso Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the functional form of the euro area Phillips curve over the past three decades. In particular, compared to previous literature we analyse the stability of the relationship in detail, especially as regards the possibility of a time-varying mean of inflation. Moreover, we conduct a sensitivity analysis across different measures of economics lack. Our main findings are two. First, there is strong evidence of time variation in the mean and slope of the Phillips curve occurring in the early to mid 1980s, but not in inflation persistence once the mean shift is allowed for. As a result of the structural change, the Phillips curve became flatter around a lower mean of inflation. Second, we find no significant evidence of non-linearity, in particular in relation to the output gap.
Author: Alberto Musso Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the functional form of the euro area Phillips curve over the past three decades. In particular, compared to previous literature we analyse the stability of the relationship in detail, especially as regards the possibility of a time-varying mean of inflation. Moreover, we conduct a sensitivity analysis across different measures of economics lack. Our main findings are two. First, there is strong evidence of time variation in the mean and slope of the Phillips curve occurring in the early to mid 1980s, but not in inflation persistence once the mean shift is allowed for. As a result of the structural change, the Phillips curve became flatter around a lower mean of inflation. Second, we find no significant evidence of non-linearity, in particular in relation to the output gap.
Author: Alberto Musso Publisher: ISBN: 9781298045324 Category : Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
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Author: Ilmo Pyyhtiä Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper deals with the question of whether the euro area Phillips curve is nonlinear. There has recently been a great deal of discussion and studies concerning the same question in the US context. The data set includes most of the euro area countries, namely Austria, Germany, Finland, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Estimation is made both with pooled data and with country-specific models. The results give a clear indication of nonlinearity of the Phillips curve in many euro countries. The curve is asymmetric in the sense that, with a positive output gap (actual output is greater than potential output), its impact on inflation is positive, but, with a negative output gap, the deflationary impact is very small and not significant as a rule. The Phillips curve has been especially asymmetric in Germany, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. An important result of the study is the strong negative influence of inflation uncertainty on GDP in the euro countries during the estimation period, 1976-1997. This effect was very strong in pooled data but also at country level. This result is new in the sense that a Lucas-type supply function and especially nonlinear versions of it have not been estimated very often. Another interesting result is that Phillips curves can be estimated with good success using OECD Secretariat forecast data for inflation expectations. A very important result for monetary policy are the large differences between countries as regards the slope and shape of the Phillips curve. The policy implication of nonlinearity is clear. The costs of unduly expansive monetary policy could be high in the euro area in the medium term. Nonlinearity also means that inflation pressure in the euro area is dependent not only on the average demand situation but also on how economic activity is distributed across the region.
Author: Andrea Beccarini Publisher: CEPS ISBN: 9290798130 Category : Inflation (Finance) Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
With inflation increasing all over the world, central banks have to consider with some care how quickly to re-establish price stability. A key issue in this context is the short-run cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment. The aim of this paper is to determine the 'sacrifice ratio' for the Euro Area and for the United States. The main findings are: the cost of reducing inflation is in most cases higher in the US than in the EA. For example, reducing (headline) inflation by 1% point requires a decline of output of 1.4% in the EU, but 2.3% for the US. Considering core inflation, the sacrifice ratio in terms of output is somewhat higher for the Euro Area (around 4) compared to 3.2 for the US. However, the sacrifice ratios in terms of unemployment are always much larger for the US. Reducing headline inflation by 1% requires an increase in unemployment of little more than 1% in the EA, compared to 8% in the US.However, there is also a long-run 'hysterisis' cost that is specific to the Euro Area since the reaction of unemployment to output depends on the state of the economy. During downturns this relationship worsens. This implies that a recession engineered to combat inflation will have an additional cost in terms of lower unemployment later, even after the recovery of the economy.
Author: Karsten Reichold Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper presents evidence for sources and channels of nonlinearities and instabilities of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) for the euro area and all but four member states over the last two decades prior to the COVID-19 crisis. The approach rests upon misspecification testing using auxiliary regressions based on the standard open-economy hybrid NKPC. Using a large number of specifications, this approach allows to systematically, i. e., based on a literature review, disentangle the evidence for nonlinearities and instabilities of the NKPC according to sources and channels. For the euro area and most considered member states, there is substantial evidence for nonlinearities and instabilities. The relatively most important channels of nonlinearities and instabilities are similar across countries, whereas the relatively most important sources differ across countries. The results strongly indicate the need for considering nonlinear NKPC relationships in empirical analyses and also point towards potentially useful nonlinear specifications.
Author: Thomas McGregor Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven subcomponents of core inflation and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. We use the model’s disaggregated structure to explore which factors drove the deterioration in forecasting performance during the pandemic period and use these insights to improve on the ability to forecast inflation. In the baseline, the projection for core inflation is centered above 3 percent at end-2023, while headline inflation is expected to drop quite sharply over 2023, with energy base effects pulling inflation down from the currently very elevated levels to below 3 percent by 2023q4. The confidence intervals around these projections are wide given elevated uncertainty. We argue that the bottom-up approach offers a useful complement to the forecasters toolbox – even in the current uncertain environment - by improving forecast accuracy, shedding additional light on the drivers of inflation and providing a framework in which to apply ex post judgement in a structured way.
Author: Jordi Galí Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
We provide evidence on the fit of the New Phillips Curve (NPQ for the Euro area over the period 1970-1998, and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two main components, namely, labor productivity and real wages. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the NPC fits Euro area data very well, possibly better than U.S. data, (b) the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to have a stronger forward- looking component (i.e., less inertia) than in the U.S., (d) labor market frictions, as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup, appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and, consequently, inflation in Europe.
Author: Mr. Anil Ari Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 23
Book Description
This paper analyzes whether structural changes in the aftermath of the pandemic have steepened the Phillips curves in advanced economies, reversing the flattening observed in recent decades and reducing the sacrifice ratio associated with disinflation. Particularly, analysis of granular price quote data from the UK indicates that increased digitalization may have raised price flexibility, while de-globalization may have made inflation more responsive to domestic economic conditions again. Using sectoral data from 24 advanced economies in Europe, higher digitalization and lower trade intensity are shown to be associated with steeper Phillips curves. Post-pandemic Phillips curve estimates indicate some steepening in the UK, Spain, Italy and the euro area as a whole, but at magnitudes that are too small to explain the entire surge in inflation in 2021–22, suggesting an important role for outward shifts in the Phillips curve.
Author: Lourdes Acedo Montoya Publisher: ISBN: 9789279192302 Category : European Union countries Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
"Why has euro area (core) inflation not fallen further during and after the "great recession"? How different are inflation dynamics across Member States? This paper analyses core inflation dynamics in the euro area and its Member States using a hybrid specification of the Phillips curve. Inflation expectations are directly observed from an expert survey, so no assumptions need to be imposed about expectations formation. The choice of the hybrid Phillips curve framework is vindicated, as the data clearly indicate the relevance of both backward-looking inflation and inflation expectations. The impact of the output gap on core inflation is significant but not large. The combination of stable inflation expectations, sluggish price adjustment and an only moderate impact of the output gap on inflation helps understanding the stability of core inflation despite large and persistent output gaps in the aftermath of the crisis. Although the heterogeneity of Phillips curve relationships across Member States is not large, the exceptionally large output gap caused by the crisis is one driver (among others) of the recently observed inflation differentials in the euro area"--Publication information p.
Author: Alberto Musso
Author: Alberto Musso
Author: Alberto Musso
Author: Ilmo Pyyhtiä
Author: Andrea Beccarini
Author: Karsten Reichold
Author: Thomas McGregor
Author: Maritta Paloviita
Author: Jordi Galí
Author: Mr. Anil Ari
Author: Lourdes Acedo Montoya