Author: Maury Harris Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118865073 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 403
Book Description
A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book: Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions. Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment—a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks—in readable and illuminating detail. Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises. Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues—including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies. Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.
Author: Alexandra Chauran Publisher: Llewellyn Worldwide ISBN: 0738729353 Category : Body, Mind & Spirit Languages : en Pages : 108
Book Description
Haven't you always wanted to gaze into a crystal ball and see what the future holds? You can learn to use a crystal ball for divination, guidance, and meditation—this friendly introductory guide tells you how! Alexandra Chauran, a second-generation fortuneteller, presents everything you need to know to begin doing crystal ball readings immediately. You'll learn what a crystal ball is, how it works, and how to choose your first one. Step-by-step instructions describe what to look for when doing a reading and how to interpret the symbols found within the crystal ball. You can gain heightened intuitive abilities, greater self-knowledge, and a deeper understanding of the universe when you practice the ancient art of crystal ball reading.
Author: Marlo Scrimizzi Publisher: RP Minis ISBN: 9780762465149 Category : Body, Mind & Spirit Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
Find the answers you seek and see into your future! Bring a touch of magic to your office or home with the Magic Crystal Ball. With a wave your hand over the miniature 3" glass crystal ball to unlock the mystical powers of a fortune teller and reveal one of 15 "answers" to help guide you. Perfect for when you need a little guidance or want to show off your mystical skills at work or with friends, the Magic Crystal Ball will help you achieve balance, put you on the path to fulfilling your dreams, and finding happiness. Kit includes: A mini 3" glass crystal ball with motion activated light (glowing aura) and sound (music and mystical answers). A black base A 48-page mini book, with a brief history and tips on how to use your crystal ball
Author: Dona Smith Publisher: Apple ISBN: 9780590137447 Category : Clue Languages : en Pages : 72
Book Description
Another collection of mini-mysteries challenges the reader to figure out if Mrs. White, Miss Scarlet, Colonel Mustard, or another of the group did in Mr. Boddy.
Author: Ted Andrews Publisher: Llewellyn Worldwide ISBN: 9781567180268 Category : Body, Mind & Spirit Languages : en Pages : 260
Book Description
Quartz crystal balls and crystal bowls are popular magical tools. Yet, not everyone understands the extent of their power and multipurpose potential. Ted Andrews reveals how these dynamic instruments can be used for divination, astral projection, spirit communication, healing, and reaching higher states of consciousness. Readers will learn many methods of crystal gazing, along with ways to enhance this practice with candles, fragrances, and elixirs. Also included are techniques for divining with water, communicating with angels and spirit guides, developing clairvoyance, and activating creativity. This updated edition also contains new illustrations.
Author: Jeffrey C. Bauer Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1466554037 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 172
Book Description
Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership’s Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future—forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today’s rapidly changing environment. Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers’ understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership’s Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future. Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 year career as economist and futurist into a guide that other leaders can use to avoid problems and create better options in any realm. The book includes a foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz, author of Positive Turbulence.
Author: John Charnes Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118161130 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 449
Book Description
Praise for Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball(r) and Excel(r) "Professor Charnes's book drives clarity into applied Monte Carlo analysis using examples and tools relevant to real-world finance. The book will prove useful for analysts of all levels and as a supplement to academic courses in multiple disciplines." -Mark Odermann, Senior Financial Analyst, Microsoft "Think you really know financial modeling? This is a must-have for power Excel users. Professor Charnes shows how to make more realistic models that result in fewer surprises. Every analyst needs this credibility booster." -James Franklin, CEO, Decisioneering, Inc. "This book packs a first-year MBA's worth of financial and business modeling education into a few dozen easy-to-understand examples. Crystal Ball software does the housekeeping, so readers can concentrate on the business decision. A careful reader who works the examples on a computer will master the best general-purpose technology available for working with uncertainty." -Aaron Brown, Executive Director, Morgan Stanley, author of The Poker Face of Wall Street "Using Crystal Ball and Excel, John Charnes takes you step by step, demonstrating a conceptual framework that turns static Excel data and financial models into true risk models. I am astonished by the clarity of the text and the hands-on, step-by-step examples using Crystal Ball and Excel; Professor Charnes is a masterful teacher, and this is an absolute gem of a book for the new generation of analyst." -Brian Watt, Chief Operating Officer, GECC, Inc. "Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel is a comprehensive, well-written guide to one of the most useful analysis tools available to professional risk managers and quantitative analysts. This is a must-have book for anyone using Crystal Ball, and anyone wanting an overview of basic risk management concepts." -Paul Dietz, Manager, Quantitative Analysis, Westar Energy "John Charnes presents an insightful exploration of techniques for analysis and understanding of risk and uncertainty in business cases. By application of real options theory and Monte Carlo simulation to planning, doors are opened to analysis of what used to be impossible, such as modeling the value today of future project choices." -Bruce Wallace, Nortel
Author: Risa Green Publisher: CreateSpace ISBN: 9781467924207 Category : Fiction Languages : en Pages : 338
Book Description
Erin inherits a Magic 8 Ball and a set of cryptic instructions from her free-spirited aunt. Erin and her two best friends give it a try and discover that this particular 8 Ball has an uncanny knack for being accurate. But as with all magic, it comes with limits and a price.
Author: Maury Harris
Author: Alexandra Chauran
Author: Marlo Scrimizzi
Author: Skye Alexander
Author: Dona Smith
Author: Ted Andrews
Author: Jeffrey C. Bauer
Author: John Charnes
Author: Jacqueline Dembar Greene
Author: Risa Green