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Decision Making under Uncertainty

Decision Making under Uncertainty PDF Author: Kerstin Preuschoff
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2889194663
Category : Biological psychiatry
Languages : en
Pages : 144

Book Description
Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.

Decision Making under Uncertainty

Decision Making under Uncertainty PDF Author: Kerstin Preuschoff
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2889194663
Category : Biological psychiatry
Languages : en
Pages : 144

Book Description
Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.

Cognitive Ecology

Cognitive Ecology PDF Author: Reuven Dukas
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226169332
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 430

Book Description
Cognitive Ecology lays the foundations for a field of study that integrates theory and data from evolutionary ecology and cognitive science to investigate how animal interactions with natural habitats shape cognitive systems, and how constraints imposed on nervous systems limit or bias animal behavior. Using critical literature reviews and theoretical models, the contributors provide new insights and raise novel questions about the adaptive design of specific brain capacities and about optimal behavior subject to the computational capabilities of brains.

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty PDF Author: Mohammed Abdellaoui
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540684360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245

Book Description
Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Behavioral Decision Making

Behavioral Decision Making PDF Author: George Wright
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461323916
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 570

Book Description


Handbook of Economic Psychology

Handbook of Economic Psychology PDF Author: W.F. Van Raaij
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401577919
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 673

Book Description
The idea to publish a Handbook of Economic Psychology came up as a natural consequence of a discussion concerning appropriate reading material for courses in economic psychology. The discussion took place a few years ago in the Department of Economic Psychology at Tilburg University, The Netherlands. It was noted that there was a surprising lack of collections of pertinent readings, to say nothing about the lack of textbooks in the English language. So the present editors, who had been involved in the discussion, decided to start working on a Handbook. The situation has changed quite a lot since then. There are now a number of books, internationally available in the English language, in economic psy chology or behavioral economics. The interest in this field of study is expanding quite impressively. The Journal of Economic Psychology is now (1988) in its ninth volume and many other journals are publishing articles in the field. The application of psychological theories and methods to economic prob lems or the study of economic experiences and behavior is variously referred to as economic psychology or behavioral economics. While in principle we do not want to overdo the differences between the two, we have a feeling that economic psychology has a slightly stronger flavor of psychology than behavioral economics which in its turn seems to be closer to economics. Psychologists tend to feel more at home in economic psychology, while economists seem to favor behavioral economics.

Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making

Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making PDF Author: Leonard C. MacLean
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814417351
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 941

Book Description
This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).

Emerging Perspectives on Judgment and Decision Research

Emerging Perspectives on Judgment and Decision Research PDF Author: Sandra L. Schneider
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521527187
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 740

Book Description
Table of contents

Guide for Making Acute Risk Decisions

Guide for Making Acute Risk Decisions PDF Author: CCPS (Center for Chemical Process Safety)
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119669057
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 227

Book Description
This book presents a guidance on a large range of decision aids for risk analysts and decision makers in industry so that vital decisions can be made in a more consistent, logical, and rigorous manner. It provide good industry practices on how risk decision making is conducted in the chemical industry from many risk information sources as well as all the elements that need to be addressed to ensure good decisions are being made. Topics Include: Identifying Risk Decisions, A Risk Decision Strategy for Process Safety, Case Studies in Risk Decision Making Failures, Guidance on Selecting Decision Aids, Templates for Decision Making in Risk-Based Process Safety, Understanding Process Hazards & Worst Possible Consequences, Management of Change as an Exercise in Risk Identification, Inherently Safer Design as an Exercise in Risk Tradeoff Analysis, Using LOPA and Risk Matrices in Risk Decisions, Using CPQRA and Safety Risk Criteria in Risk Decisions, Group Decision Making, Avoiding Decision Traps, Documentation of Process Safety Risk Decisions

Risk and Decision Making

Risk and Decision Making PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Decision making
Languages : en
Pages : 80

Book Description


Risk Taking and Decision Making

Risk Taking and Decision Making PDF Author:
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 0804765073
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 540

Book Description
Risks are an integral part of complex, high-stakes decisions, and decisionmakers are faced with the unavoidable tasks of assessing risks and forming risk preferences. This is true for all decision domains, including financial, environmental, and foreign policy domains, among others. How well decisionmakers deal with risk affects, to a considerable extent, the quality of their decisions. This book provides the most comprehensive analysis available of the elements that influence risk judgments and preferences. The book has two dimensions: theoretical and comparative-historical. The study of risk-taking behavior has been dominated by the rational choice approach. Instead, the author adopts a socio-cognitive approach involving: a multivariate theory integrating contextual, cognitive, motivational, and personality factors that affect an individual decisionmaker's judgment and preferences; the social interaction and structural effects of the decisionmaking group and its organizational setting; and the role of cultural-societal values and norms that sanction or discourage risk taking behavior. The book's theoretical approach is applied and tested in five historical case studies of foreign military interventions. The richly detailed empirical data on the case studies make them, metaphorically speaking, an ideal laboratory for applying a process-tracing approach in studying judgment and decision processes at varying risk levels. The case studies analyzed are: U.S. interventions in Grenada in 1983 and Panama in 1989 (both low risk); Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia in 1968 (moderate risk): U.S. intervention in Vietnam in 1964-68 (high risk); and Israel's intervention in Lebanon in 1982-83 (high risk).